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Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Bet Builder Tips & Player Prop Bets

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Bet Builder Tips & Player Prop Bets

Friday 10 January, 20251 min read
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Stuart Durst

Stuart Durst is a professional gambler that has publicity released free plays over the last 3 years, publishing thousands of in-depth articles in the process. With a direct focus on the ever-expanding player prop market, he blends film study and data analytics to constantly find edges across multiple major sports. When he’s not betting sports, he’s likely either live on his podcast Pass The Prop or walking his dog Reno.

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Bet Builder Tips

28/1 Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Bet Builder

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28/1 Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Bet Builder Tip

🏈 Joe Moxon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

📈 Odds: 1.83

Joe Mixon has been an essential part of this Texans offense, and he will need to be a big part of the game plan for this Wild Card matchup. While Mixon does most of his damage on the ground, he is one of the few every-down backs left in the NFL. Sure we saw more backup usage last week, but that was a game where they pulled starters. In healthy games, Mixon dominates usage and should get designed touches and panic dump-offs in the receiving game. The Chargers are a strong defense, and with their success in stopping the run this year, I would expect Mixon to be used in more creative ways. The Texans are also now without Tank Dell in addition to Stefon Diggs, which should open up some receiving work for Mixon a bit more. When Houston was without Nico Collins earlier this season, Mixon averaged 3.5 targets per game and should continue to see good volume. With the Texans' skill position players so beat up, they ended this season looking pretty bad on offense. It makes a lot of logical sense that they would have to rely on the short passing game, keeping the pressure off of CJ Stroud as much as possible. As 3-point underdogs, they will likely not be able to run as much as they would like, but Mixon will still be a big part of those early down plays even through the air.

🏈 Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 Receptions

📈 Odds: 1.67

Ladd McConkey finished his rookie regular season with 82 catches for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. While this is an impressive mark for anyone in the league, his 1,149 receiving yards are No. 13 all-time for a rookie in NFL history. A quick look at this Chargers roster and it’s clear there is not much talent in the wide receiver room. They put a lot of faith in the rookie, and he has checked every box possible as the wide receiver #1 on this team. Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston are not intimidating options who will get some rough outside corner matchups, I don’t have any faith in them to produce. Ladd McConkey’s 3.2 yards per route vs. man coverage is the fourth-highest in NFL history for a rookie, only behind Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and AJ Brown. This is great news because DeMeco Ryans is known to trust his corners in man coverage, which should present some good 1v1 opportunities. The Texans have good outside corners but have struggled in the slot, I’m curious how aggressively they use Stingley to shadow him. My projection is that he does on key downs, but with Ladds 30% target share, pure volume should get him over this number. This is projected to be a close game, and I think Herbert will strongly rely on his most dependable target.

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🏈 Justin Herbert 25+ Rushing Yards

📈 Odds: 2.20

While Justin Herbert is one of the best passing quarterbacks in football, sometimes his mobility goes a little bit under the radar. He’s not a true dual-threat quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, but he can extend plays with his legs and will be trusted in short-yardage situations to run the ball. While he's mostly reliant on scrambles, he actually could see a designed run or two in the playoffs. You normally see an uptick in aggression not only from the players but also from the coaching staff in terms of letting quarterbacks take on more rushing responsibilities. Justin Herbert ended the season with 25+ rush yards in 2 of the last 3 games, looking healthier than he had earlier in the season. He’s been dealing with injury all year long, but he appears to be in the best shape of the season at exactly the right time. The biggest problem I have with the Chargers' offense is the lack of options outside of Ladd McConkey, Herbert will likely be forced to extend plays a little bit more with his legs against such a strong Texans pass rush. I love backing mobile quarterbacks in the highest-stakes games, and I think there is good value on Herbert in this one.

🏈 Will Dissly 5+ Receptions

📈 Odds: 3.25

While I’ve already talked down on the wide receiver room with guys like Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer, I think the tight ends will help make up for the lack of outside production. Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter are a great corner duo and should have a lot of success in those matchups, likely shifting some of their focus to Ladd McConkey. With those options less dependable, I think Herbert leans on a quarterback's best friend. Dissly runs short, easy-to-convert routes that should provide a nice safety blanket for Herbert. This will be necessary against a Texans defense with a very strong pass rush that can get to the quarterback. Dissly had some injury concerns at the end of the season but he looked healthy in the final game, posting 5 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown. He’s really proven to be one of the few targets Herbert can rely on, and I see the Chargers playing a lot of 12 personnel in this one to combat the Texans pass rush. Having those extra blocking snaps will also open some play-action opportunities, which could be huge considering the Texans lost their best safety and slot defender to injury.
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