This bet has landed in 50% of Newcastle's home league games this season.

They've dropped off at home this season, managing 1.64 Points Per Game (PPG), compared to the 2 PPG they posted last season.

They have lost their last three home league games to teams lower in the league than Man Utd. Losing to Everton, Brentford and Aston Villa, conceding eight goals in that time.

They've actually conceded three goals in three of their last four home league games - as they needed a late show to beat Leeds 4-3 the home league outing before this run of losses.

Newcastle have hosted eight of the current Premier League top 10 this season in the league, they have only won two of those games, drawing one and losing the other five. So this bet has landed on six of the eight (75%) occasions they've hosted a side in the current Premier League top 10 this season.

Nick Pope has been a very busy man in the Newcastle goal this season, he’s been forced into making 67 saves across his 22 starts in the Premier League this term working out to an average of 3.07 saves per 90 at a save percentage of 67.7%.

Aaron Ramsdale was the keeper for Newcastle the last time that the sides met and was forced into making three saves. Pope should return as the starting keeper here, given that he’s played the last two Premier League matches against Manchester City and Everton, making seven saves across those games.

Manchester United have taken more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season, and managed 11 shots on target against Crystal Palace last time out - drawing nine saves from Dean Henderson in that clash.

I’ve been waiting for Sesko to start firing in the Premier League and it looks like Michael Carrick now trusts him enough given his goals in recent games against Everton and Crystal Palace.

I love Sesko because he can score so many different types of goals. He’s got the shot power to take aim for range, and he's just as effective in the air as he showed with his headed goal against Crystal Palace last time out.

Sesko has taken 49 shots across his 12 starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 3.65 shots per 90. He’s scored eight goals across those starts, which is a very impressive tally for a young striker in his first season in the Premier League.

Strikers play in streaks of form based on confidence. Sesko should have plenty of that having netted in each of his last three games for Manchester United - managing four shots against Crystal Palace last time out. He should get plenty of service with United taking more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season, and Newcastle are without a clean sheet in their last 11 matches across all competitions.

This bet has landed in 10 of Mbeumo's last 12 Premier League games.

In Newcastle last five league outings, the opposition right winger has cover this line.

Dwight McNeil: had four shots at St James' this weekend just gone.

Antoine Semenyo: had three shots and then Phil Foden added another as a Sub On Play On replacement.

Wilson Odobert: came off early and was replaced by Mathys Tel who had six shots!

Dango Ouattara: two shots.

Mohamed Salah: two shots.

Newcastle need a result more than Man Utd in this one, the dynamics of the game could play out for Michael Carrick's side to utilise their strength on the counter-attack, Mbeumo is crucial to that with his pace.

Although he loves to cut in onto his left to strike, the Cameroon international is not one-dimensional. 36% of his shots this season have been with either his right foot or his head, so there are plenty of angles that Mbeumo can land this bet for us under the lights in the North East.

Bruno Fernandes was pivotal again in Manchester United’s 2-1 win over Crystal Palace last time out, registering a goal and an assist to secure the three points.

He’s really thriving under Carrick, who has moved Fernandes back to his normal role as an advanced midfielder after Fernandes spent the first half of the season playing in a deeper role under Ruben Amorim, which never really made sense to me.

Fernandes has registered 20 goal contributions across his 25 starts in the Premier League this season, with this tally including 13 assists. He’s already outperformed his goal contribution record from last season (18), showing consistency in his game when it comes to coming up with the end product.

Fernandes’ games under Carrick have been particularly promising for goal contributions, with seven across his seven games in charge under the interim boss. I can see him playing a starring role again here against a Newcastle side that has failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 11 matches in all competitions.

Joelinton is a magnet for cards, and I don’t see his combative nature shrinking at all for this contest. Joelinton has picked up a card in three of his last five Premier League appearances coming into this clash, and has collected seven yellow cards across his 18 Premier League appearances for Newcastle overall.

Joelinton was shifted out to the left wing by Eddie Howe for their 3-2 loss to Everton last time out. I think Howe is trying to find a solution to Newcastle losing Bruno Guimaraes to injury - who has been their best and most influential player this season. The midfield unit doesn’t look as solid without Guimares, so Howe may be thinking that it makes sense to go with a double pivot in midfield at the moment with Nick Woltemade slightly ahead and Joelinton off to the left.

This slight position change shouldn’t make too much of a difference to Joelinton’s foul and card numbers in the Premier League this season, as he’d still face up against the likes of Bryan Mbeumo who is averaging 1.14 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, and has a natural edge on Joelinton when it comes to the sharpness of his movement.

Newcastle are having real issues when it comes to finding a reliable number nine, despite signing Woltemade and Yoane Wissa over the summer. Gordon played up front against Everton last time out, managing two shots - one of which found the target. I can see Gordon continuing in this role again, given the issues that Woltemade and Wissa have had when it comes to making that spot their own.

Gordon has a habit of turning up in big matches for Newcastle, he usually saves his best performances for St James’ Park - and I still think he’s got the personal motivation of having an England spot to fight for. That left wing role is far from set in stone, and if Gordon can be more effective for Newcastle from now until the end of the season, then it could mean that he secures that role ahead of his main competitor, Marcus Rashford.

Gordon has taken 38 shots across his 20 starts in the Premier League this term (2.31 per 90), with 14 of those attempts finding the target (0.85 per 90).