This has landed in 11 of Millwall’s 18 home games this season. We’re expecting a tight game and actually favour the draw as the most likely result, but if we had to pick a winner we would edge towards the home side, who will surely be fired up for this one by former Stoke boss Alex Neil. Although unlikely, with a strong finish to the season Millwall have an outside squeak at the play-off positions.

Stoke have drawn or lost 15 of their 18 away games. Two of their wins came against sides 18th or below in the current table, and the other at Blackburn five months ago. They have lost their last three away games.

The season-long records for both teams to score in this game make this seem unlikely, but recent form seems to suggest this is more likely.

Both teams have scored in three of Millwall’s last four league games at The Den. Millwall average just over one goal per game at home, whilst they concede nearly one per game.

In terms of Stoke’s recent games, both teams have scored in five of their last six away games, and in seven of the 13 matches Mark Robins has been in charge of.

Luke Cundle was on loan at Stoke last season. He joined Millwall late in the January transfer window, and has started every league game since.

He has committed at least one foul in six out of eight appearances, racking up a total of 15, eight of which have come over the last two games.

He has been playing mostly on the left side of a midfield three, so may be drawn into similar areas as Stoke dangerman Million Manhoef, a player just returning from injury and trying to rediscover his early form. He may be targeted to be fouled given how influential he can be.

Thompson has played over 70 minutes in Stoke’s last three games, proving a possible answer to Mark Robins’ search to add more steel to his midfield, particularly in the absence of Ben Pearson who is again out through injury.

Thompson has certainly proved a disruptor, committing two fouls in his last three appearances. He has picked up five cards in under 1000 league minutes, at a rate better than one every other game.

Games at The Den are always hard fought, with midfield scrapping always high on the agenda if you are going to get anything out of the game. That scrapping can easily lead to fouls committed.

As touched on in bet builder 1, we have the draw marked as the likely outcome. This is mainly due to the fact we don’t see either side as a reliable win bet. Millwall have failed to win 11 out of 18 home games, whilst Stoke have failed to win 15 out of 18 away games.

Millwall obviously have home advantage, but have lost the xG battle in their last three games, whilst Stoke have lost their last three away games, but may be due a turn of fortunes.

Millwall’s games are often low margin, so we see the draw as a big runner here.

The referee for this one is Andy Davies, who taken charge of three previous Stoke games this season, but none of Millwall’s.

In those three games, he has shown Stoke two, two and four cards, so the precedent is there for this referee to not be best pleased by Stoke’s attempts to tackle the opposition.

Across the course of the season, Stoke average 2.4 cards per game away from home. The bet would have landed in 13 of their 18 away games this season.

The only issue is that Millwall have the lowest average of cards shown to the opposition at home this season, but we think this game is of high importance to Stoke, which should see plenty of duels and hopefully lead to two cards.

We talked about Cundle in bet builder 1, and we’re upping the number of fouls required from him to two for this second bet.

We stated earlier that Cundle has made one or more fouls in six of his eight starts, and it is only one less for two or more fouls, which has landed in five of eight.

Stoke were reportedly keen on taking Cundle back on loan again in January, but were gazumped by a permanent deal from The Lions. Cundle will want to how Stoke what they have missed out on, and his enthusiasm might get the better of him.

Again, we revisit a selection from bet builder 1, who has shown form over the last three games that would have covered this bet each time.

If we look back to a larger sample size from last season, where he covered this bet in eight of 23 starts, which makes the 3.0 offered for this to occur on Saturday by Paddy Power a fair price.

George Honeyman, George Saville and Luke Cundle, all likely to be in and around Thompson, are all fouled on average 1.2+ times per 90.