Right now the Lions' hopes of reaching the playoffs are hanging on a string, and there’s nothing that the Vikings would love more than to stop their divisional rivals from making it to the post-season. Only one win separates these teams in the NFC North table, but the Lions are by far the better unit and should get the job done.

Both teams have strong defenses, with the Vikings ranked sixth in DVOA and the Lions only a little further back in 11th, but the gulf in quality at the quarterback position and the offenses in general will be the deciding factor in this festive clash. The Lions’ offense is ranked third in DVOA, with the Vikings down in 29th, and they’re also the second highest scoring offense in the league.

This Lions team are big, big scorers. They’ve put up an average of 30.1 points per game, only marginally lower than this alternate line for Thursday Christmas cracker. You’re never sure exactly how players will play on Christmas Day, so I want to be conservative and take a total that’s a long way lower than the line of 44.5.

I wouldn’t be against taking it on even at that higher number, with the Over being 10-5 in Lions games this season, as well as the Over landing in 100% of their games as a favourite on the road this season.

Jahmyr Gibbs has been a monster since joining the NFL, but it’s been a really poor couple of weeks from him and last week’s two-yard game was a real low point. However, I always believe in quality, and Gibbs will get back to his best very soon. 

This season he’s averaged 73.4 yards per game and faces a Vikings team who are giving up a big 127.6 yards per game on the ground. Over these past two games we’ve seen the Lions move away from the run and it’s cost them the game. With this being a must-win, we’re going to see them get back to establishing the run.

The cream always rises to the top, and Justin Jefferson looked back to his best this past week against the Giants, putting up his biggest yardage total since Week Five. He caught six of his eight targets for 85 yards and it was promising to see him and JJ McCarthy’s chemistry develop after a difficult season.

The Lions are giving up an average of 232.5 passing yards per game, the eighth most in the NFL, and with Jefferson finding some form again, we should see him continue to get targets, and that will likely result in high yardage.