Neither of these two teams are amongst the best in the league, but the Cowboys at least have a strong offense, having scored the fifth most points per game of any team in the NFL. The offense ranks seventh in DVOA, with the Commanders in the bottom 10. The Cowboys defense has let them down all season and despite being dead last in the NFL in DVOA, they’re only four spots worse than Washington.

The Cowboys won the reverse of this fixture easily, putting up double the Commanders' 22 points, and you shouldn’t be shocked to see a similar margin of victory here. This is a hot offense and they’ll be able to beat a Commanders team who gave up 21 points to the Giants two weeks ago, and 31 to the Vikings the week before that.

It’s been great to see Javonte Williams have a redemptive season in Dallas. I loved him when he first burst on the scene in Denver and was worried that injuries had permanently taken away his zip. He’s bounced back big time this season and as averaged 76.4 rushing yards.

Only three teams in the NFL have given more rushing yards per game than the Commanders, who are allowing 141.3 per game. With Williams in strong form and hitting 60+ rushing yards in five of his past seven, he should do so again here. When these teams met in Week Seven, it ended up with Williams putting up his second biggest total of the season, with 116 yards.

We’re doubling down and backing Williams to find the endzone, just as he did when these teams met 10 weeks ago. He’s scored 12 times this season, including in three of his past four games. He’s been getting the bulk of the carries in Cowboys games this season and should continue to get a heavy workload here.

The Commanders have given up 18 touchdowns to opposing running backs in just 15 games, an average of more than one per game, and with Williams in fine form, I can see that happening once again.

The Commanders have given up the second most touchdowns to tight ends this season, with 10. Jake Ferguson hasn’t scored in any of his past five games, but he’s had a good season really, with seven touchdowns throughout.

He’s tied for the most red zone targets amongst all players on the Cowboys roster, and has still been averaging over one red zone target per game during this spell without scoring. He’s due one and it’ll come very, very soon.