The New York derby is always an important date on the MLS calendar, but it takes extra significance this time around, with New York Red Bulls currently sitting two points adrift of the playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Their city rivals are comfortably in the playoff spots and have a 10 point buffer, making this a much more important game for the home side than it is for the travelling contingent.

It’s not really a home or away game for either of these sides given the close proximity of the clubs, but New York Red Bulls have seen plenty of goals in their home games this season. They’ve netted 34 goals across their 15 home matches, which is the second highest total in the Eastern Conference - behind league leaders Philadelphia (35).

They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games too, which is a record that will encourage New York City, who have seen 39 goals across their 15 away matches this season (2.6 per game).

New York City have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches and will be expecting serious pressure from their rivals here. These sides faced off three times in 2024, with BTTS landing in two of these fixtures.

I’m really surprised at this pricing, Philadelphia are the away side, but they have been head and shoulders above DC United for the majority of the season, and ran out 3-0 winners over their opponents here in the most recent clash between the sides in April. Philadelphia also won the meeting before that back in September 2024, running out 4-0 winners.

DC United have had a torrid season, winning just five of their 31 matches in the MLS. Only two of these wins have come at home, so they are actually marginally better on the road than in front of their own fans - which aids our selection here.

The main issue that DC United will have here is matching the scoring power of Philadelphia, they’ve only scored 13 goals across their 15 home games in the MLS this season, while Philadelphia have only conceded 18 goals across their 15 away matches this term - the best defensive record on the road of any side in the Eastern Conference.

DC United have only managed to win one of their last 15 matches across all competitions, losing 10 of these games.

These are two of the most entertaining sides in the MLS, let alone the Eastern Conference. Columbus Crew have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches in the MLS, managing to win just one of these games, while Chicago have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches.

BTTS has landed in the last three head-to-head meetings between these sides. with the latest clash taking place back in February and ending in a 4-2 victory for Columbus Crew. Columbus registered an xG of 2.18 in that game, but Chicago weren’t totally passive in the encounter in registering an xG of 1.79 from 13 shots themselves.

These sides are separated by just one place in the Eastern Conference, and that one place could end up being pivotal, seeing as both sides are teetering on the verge of dropping out of the playoff spots. A draw is actually the worst possible result for both of these sides when considering the other sides chasing their playoff spot, so we can expect both to go for it here.

Columbus have only lost four of their 15 away matches this season, and these games have produced plenty of goals. They’ve scored 25 themselves but also conceded 28, their away matches tend to be pretty end to end. Chicago don’t see as many goals at home as they do on the road, but have still seen 44 goals across their 15 home matches this season (2.93 per game).

San Diego sit top of the Western Conference heading into the final few weeks of the league phase of the season. Vancouver are close by, sitting just two points behind San Diego, but this game represents an excellent opportunity for the home side to cement their lead at the top of the Western Conference, giving them a more favourable draw (in theory) when we reach the playoffs.

San Diego have avoided defeat in 12 of their 16 home games so far this season. They’ve managed to win seven of these games and have scored 25 goals. This isn’t as dominant as some of the home records in the Western Conference, but San Diego have balanced this by having the best away record in the Western Conference - winning 10 of their 15 matches on the road.

San Jose have only managed to win five of their 15 away matches in the MLS this season, losing eight of these games. They’ve scored 21 goals across these games, but their defence is far too open, with 27 goals conceded on the road.