Napoli v Cagliari

In Friday’s decisive Scudetto showdown, Napoli welcome bottom-half Cagliari to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, knowing that three points will seal a historic fourth Serie A title. While the spectacle of a potential title-deciding play-off looms should they lose and Inter draw their fixture in Como, Napoli are heavily favoured to get the job done on home soil and cap off their campaign in style.

⭐ Napoli v Cagliari Best Bet

➡️ Napoli (-1) Handicap @ 1.50 on bet365

With destiny in their own hands, backing Napoli to win convincingly feels like a logical approach, particularly given their formidable home form and Cagliari having nothing to play for.

Although back-to-back draws have slightly dented their momentum, Antonio Conte's men remain unbeaten in their last 11 matches (W6, D5). Crucially, they’ve been dominant at home in 2025, winning seven of their last 10 league fixtures at the Maradona (D3), and scoring at least twice in each of their last five home outings (W4, D1).

Defensively, Napoli have been imperious. They boast the best backline in Serie A, with a league-high 18 clean sheets and an average of just 0.7 goals conceded per game, making the prospect of Cagliari breaching them on Friday feel unlikely.

On the other hand, Cagliari come into this with little to play for. Their Serie A status is secure following a 3-0 win over Venezia, and they can finish no higher than 14th. Their away form, however, has been poor. They’ve managed just one win in their last nine on the road (D3, L5), and have lost by two or more goals in two of their last three away fixtures. 

Historically, they’ve struggled against Napoli too, failing to win any of their last eight meetings (D3, L5), and winning just once in their last 14 visits to Naples (D4, L9). The reverse fixture finished 4-0 to Napoli. With the title on the line and a packed home crowd behind them, Napoli are expected to rise to the occasion, and a comfortable win looks very much on the cards.

👕 Napoli v Cagliari Predicted XI

🔍 Napoli v Cagliari Player to Watch

🔴 Yerry Mina

➡️ Yerry Mina - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed @ 1.83 on bet365 ↔️

The Colombian centre-back brings a stereotypically South American edge to his defending, averaging 1.38 fouls per 90 and registering at least one in eight of his last nine appearances. He’ll likely be tasked with handling Romelu Lukaku, who draws 1.15 fouls per 90 and won two in the reverse fixture. In fact, Mina committed five fouls and received a booking in that same match - evidence of the mismatch in physicality.

📂 Napoli v Cagliari Cheat Sheet

We're all over this week's footballing action, with our expert Football Betting Predictions diving into all the action. Make sure to check out our European Football Betting Tips so you don’t miss any of our coverage.

Check out the best Napoli v Cagliari Betting Stats ahead of kick-off. We also have plenty more Serie A action for Friday's slate, with Como v Inter Milan Betting Predictions and Como v Inter Milan Bet Builder Tips, as well as a Goals Algorithm Acca, and Gem Bets.

Be sure to check out our Bet Builder Stats tool too, the best freely available data source for punting on football, plus our collection of the best Free Bet Offers.

💻 Napoli v Cagliari Form and Tactics

With the Scudetto on the line, Napoli enter this fixture fully aware that victory secures the title. Antonio Conte’s side has built its campaign on a defensively disciplined 4-3-3 that morphs into a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 without the ball, shielding central spaces and suffocating opponents’ build-up. They lead Serie A in clean sheets (18) and boast the lowest goals conceded (0.7 per match) as well as xGA. The Scottish midfield duo of Scott McTominay and Billy Gilmour balances steel and structure with considered distribution, while McTominay himself contributing 11 goals and six assists.

Napoli's aggressive pressing, high defensive line, and dominance in possession (58% average) allows them to dictate play, pin teams back, and thrive in transitions. However, they’ll be without Conte on the touchline due to suspension, which adds some intrigue.

Cagliari, though safe, pose threats in transition. Davide Nicola’s 3-5-2 emphasises compactness and counters, but despite ranking 5th for big chances created, they’re also 3rd for most missed, wastefulness that could cost them against such an elite defence. Their strength out wide (2nd for crosses and cross accuracy) offers one route, but they struggle to press high (3rd worst in opposition third regains) and are vulnerable to teams that dominate possession.

🏁 Napoli v Cagliari Ref Watch

• Referee: Federico La Penna

• Stats are on a per game basis and are taken from 2024/25 Serie A games (13)

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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