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Napoli v Pisa Bet Builders Quick Tips & Preview

Napoli v Pisa Bet Builders Quick Tips & Preview

Monday 22 September, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

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Napoli v Pisa Quick Preview Tips
  • Napoli v Pisa
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
2 Selections @ 2.11

Over 2.5 Cards

It’s been a while since I’ve seen over 2.5 cards priced as generously as this, and personally, I’m all over it.

It feels a bit like a kneejerk reaction over a small sample size, but even with Napoli’s league matches having been less card-intensive than usual, this selection has still landed in two of their three so far. Last season, 68% of their league matches saw at least three cards brandished, a success rate 6% higher than the implied probability would indicate.

Pisa’s four matches this season (three in Serie A, one in Coppa Italia) have yielded 15 cards, including over 2.5 in three of those. Their Serie B record from last season was even more promising, with those games producing an average of 4.84 cards per game, rising to 5.26 when on the road. Over the course of the entire season, this line was a winner in 87%.

Rasmus Hojlund to have 1+ Shots on Target

It’d be a real surprise if Napoli weren’t on the front foot; in fact, they’re priced as short as 1.2 to take all three points against Pisa.

With Hojlund set to start upfront for them in Romelu Lukaku’s absence, these odds simply don’t make sense. The Danish forward impressed on his Napoli debut, netting against Fiorentina in their 3-1 victory. 

The 22-year-old fired off two shots on target in just 73 minutes, and crucially, seems to have secured the starting spot over Lorenzo Lucca.

With Pisa averaging just under five shots on target conceded per game, and Hojlund set to start with De Bruyne operating just behind him, I firmly expect him to test the keeper at least once.

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Napoli have barely put a foot wrong domestically, while Pisa have shown resilience despite a nightmare opening schedule.

  • Napoli have won each of their opening three league matches for the first time since the 2021/22 season.

  • Pisa only have one point on the board so far, but have looked well balanced, and shouldn’t be ruled out.

  • Both De Bruyne and Hojlund scored on their debuts after making the move from Manchester.


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🔵 Napoli Maintain Perfect Start

It’s been the dream start for the Scudetto-holders, who have picked up exactly where they left off last season. Napoli have managed three wins from their opening three games for the first time since 2021/22, and have done so with relative ease.

Fiorentina’s late consolation goal last time out was the first Napoli have conceded this season, after opening with clean sheets against Sassuolo and Cagliari. 

That said, their first real test of the season will have been their midweek trip to the Etihad, which ended in a 2-0 defeat. A clumsy Giovanni Di Lorenzo got himself sent off as early as the 21st minute, leaving Antonio Conté’s men scrambling for the rest of the game.

Given the circumstances, not much more can be said about that, but this relatively easier clash should give them ample opportunity to bounce back.


🟠 Pisa Resilient Despite Brutal Schedule

Pisa have endured a tough return to Serie A, albeit largely thanks to a terrible opening schedule, consisting of matches against Atalanta, Roma, and Napoli, all in their first four.

Even so, Pisa opened their account on the opening day with a 1-1 draw against Atalanta. They followed that up with an admirable display against Roma, holding their opponents to just 0.78 xG while creating 0.56 of their own, though Matias Soulé’s strike early in the second half proved decisive. 

Most recently, Pisa came up short once more, this time against Udinese, but it was another tightly contested affair that really could have gone either way.

There are definitely a lot of positives to take from Pisa’s performances, particularly defensively, even if the league table is yet to reflect it.


📊 Napoli v Pisa H2H

It’s been some time since Napoli and Pisa last met in the league, with the previous clash unfolding almost two decades ago, when Napoli did the double over Pisa in Serie C.

The only showing since then came in the 2007 Coppa Italia, where Napoli ran out 3-1 winners.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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