These two teams are 1st and 3rd in the league for fouls committed so far this season.

Referee Josh Smith is an official who averages around four yellow cards per Championship match as well. 

This makes it a very good combination for potential cards, and to be honest, I am surprised to see the price for over 3.5 cards as big as it is.

Millwall's last 30 matches average 3.64, and Watford's last 30 matches average 4.3 yellow cards.

Kyprianou has been slightly underestimated in the shots market compared to his peers.

He has taken a shot in each of his last three matches, and in both Watford away matches so far this season as well.

When Kyprianou was at Peterborough, he was a regular goal threat as well, so he will be keen to continue that trend for his new club at a higher level to prove his all-round midfield credentials.

Millwall have given away the highest number of fouls in the league so far, and their central midfield is very hardworking and combative, given the system that they use.

Luongo is obviously an experienced Championship campaigner at this stage, and he knows how important it is to be physical and break things up.

His foul rate since joining Millwall is 2.15 per 90, and he has hit the 2+ foul mark in three of his four Millwall starts so far.

Both teams are conceding goals so far this season, whether they “deserve” to or not, and this is mainly through individual errors. This is an issue that is very difficult to coach out of a team, and also tends to be a trend that comes in patches.

Watford have conceded in every match so far, and they are slightly down on their goals v their expected goals total as well.

Millwall are a whole three goals under their expected goals total, four goals v 7.1 xG, so they are due to come good in front of goal.

Getting Millwall at odds-against feels like a good spot here.

The performances that Millwall have put in this season haven't quite been matched by their points return, much of that coming down to their defeat at home to Wrexham when they should've been well ahead.

They are in the top half of the league for chances created and chances conceded, whereas Watford sit near the bottom of the league for their attacking output, so I expect them to struggle to create much here.

Millwall have the ability to edge out a win here, given their quality, and their performance data going forward suggests they'll click soon.

The prices for the corner match bet look a little too far apart here.

Millwall have conceded more corners than they have won so far this season, and, indeed across their last 30 matches in the Championship all told. They have won the corner battle only once this season as well in all competitions.

Watford have averaged more corners than they have conceded over their last 30 matches, and although they haven't won the corner battle away from home this season yet, the prices are too big on them here.

Given that we fancy Millwall to win as well, there is also a chance that Watford have to put the pressure on at some stage.

The Watford defensive midfielder has already earned two yellow cards since his move to the Championship, both of those for fouls.

His fouls rate is 1.83 fouls per 90, and he has committed nine fouls in his five Championship matches so far, including four against Swansea.

If Imran Louza comes back in alongside Kyprianou as well, then it gives more emphasis on Kyprianou to be the one winning the ball back.