While Lebron James has been going through a little bit of a scoring slump, this profiles as a good matchup for King James to stay strong in the paint. On the season Lebron is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game on 35 minutes, that number increases to 8.5 rebounds since the start of November. Even when he takes a dip in the scoring department you usually see a jump in the rebounding and playmaking, which has been the case recently. He’s over this number in 9 of his last 12 and this is a fantastic matchup to keep the streak going. The Heat are generally and undersized team, and don’t have anyone to match the Lakers size.

I always like taking rebounds against the Heat because despite a slower pace, their defense forces a lot of opportunities. Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive centers in the league and will give Anthony Davis a hard time, and you already know Jimmy Butler is going to be setting the tone on both sides of the floor. You can attack Miami’s lack of size on the offensive boards, and I think we see a motivated Lebron in response to the tempo Miami sets. It’s always a competitive game when these two teams face off, and with 35+ minutes projected Lebron should be able to record 8+ rebounds tonight.

While the Celtics do have a strong defense, they set an incredibly fast past on offense with all the three’s they attempt, and force you to match. There is a lot of offensive pressure and we constantly see opposing guards forced to sep up, Ivey fits the bill for the Pistons. Recently we have seen guards have success against Boston including Jacquez/Herro 19 points each, Donovan Mitchell 35 points, Zach Lavine 29, James Harden 19, and Anthony Edwards 29 points over the last 5 games. With Cade Cunningham doing a lot of distributing, I think we continue to see Ivey in an aggressive scoring role.

On the season Ivey is averaging 18.4 points, scoring 15+ points in 11 of his last 15 games. Even in the bad game he’s constantly crossing 13+ field goal attempts and taking enough volume to get him over this number. On the season he’s shooting 39% from beyond the arc and very comfortable with pull-up jumpers. The Celtics are playing more drop defense with Porzingis back in the lineup, encouraging his exact kind of shot profile. I think Ivey takes advantage and we see some good volume from three in a matchup they will likely be playing from behind in.

With Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson out for the Nets there is plenty of usage to go around. We are so used to seeing Thomas put up 25+ shots a night as the lead guard, that we see a completely different roster when he’s not the primary guard. My favorite part of this prop is pretty simple, the Nets have nowhere else to turn but Dennis Schroder. Even if he’s having completely terrible games he’s still really the only lead guard on the roster, and his playmaking ability will be needed no matter what. They did have Shake Milton perform well last game, but he’s much more of a shooting guard than a point guard and can even get some assists for Schroder.

The Pacers are a perfect matchup for Schroder assists because they play at a fast pace and allow a lot of transition points. Schroder can accumulate easy assists finding his bigs in transition, and I can already see the drive and kick opportunities with a shot blocking big like Myles Turner in the paint. Sure the Nets are lacking proven scoring but their backups aren’t bad, and they will benefit from the structure of playing with a pass heavy guard. People may get scared of a high number but this profiles as a great matchup for someone with secured volume, sign me up.

Jalen Johnson is a dynamic duel threat forward that has already become one of my favorite plays to bet early in his career. The young Hawks team are in the early stages of tearing things down, and he’s a big part of the young core that will eventually save this team. While Johnson brings ultimate hustle to his rebounding and scoring, we are targeting his playmaking here. He’s averaging 5.5 assists on the season, and that number increases to 6.0 since the start of February. He plays with one of the best playmakers in the league but the Bucks allow the most points and 6th fewest assists to PGs, which means we could see others pick up on that playmaking role more.

The Bucks are allowing the 6th fewest points to opposing forwards, making it a tougher scoring matchup. When he drives to the paint and sees Giannis and Brook Lopez down there, it’s going to be much harder to execute his offensive gameplan considering how much of his scoring comes from points in the paint. Since the Bucks defend that zone well we can expect plenty of kick outs to his shooters to get the jump done. You constantly see Johnson bringing the ball down the court in transition after grabbing a rebound, and with the paint full of obstacles, I see him getting a lot of his assists out in transition. With a high total the Hawks should cover this number if they can keep the game remotely close.