The total points line for this game stands at 49.5, which is pretty high, but I’m taking a slightly lower alternative line. The Over has been a winner in five of the Patriots past seven games and with everything on the line here, plus the explosive nature of both offenses, I’m sure we’re going to see plenty of touchdowns.

Both the Bills and Patriots rank in the top seven for points scored per game, with the Bills scoring 28.9 per game and the Patriots 27. They also both rank in the top 10 for offensive DVOA and have quarterbacks who are game changing. Expect a high score, even if we’re being a little cautious with it.

I’m loving Josh Allen props this Sunday. I want to back the 29-year-old in nearly every single way I can. The Patriots have been good at stopping quarterbacks from rushing this season, giving up just an average of 16 yards per game to the position, but I’m taking Josh Allen to rush for 25 or more yards. That’s a slightly lower alternate line than the default, but I love it.

If you look back across the season, we’ve seen Allen hit the 25 yard rushing mark in 10 of 13 games this season, including four of his past five. It’s also essential that we note that he rushed nine times for 53 yards when these teams met in Week Five of this season.

I’m doubling down on Allen by backing him to score a rushing touchdown. He’s scored 44 rushing touchdowns across the past two and a half seasons and is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league when he decides to use his feet.

The most interesting thing with Allen is that he often rushes more in the second halves of seasons, which I believe is because he’s having to put the team on his own back and win the game for them. With the Bills being two wins back from the Pats, he’s going to need to do that again. Bearing in mind that he’s scored nine TDs in his past seven games, he should be finding the endzone once again.

The Patriots backfield isn’t the easiest to predict. It looked like TreVeyon Henderson has seized the backfield in light of Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury, but Stevenson has got more work in recent weeks since returning from injury, and actually had one more carry than Henderson in the team’s last game.

However, in that game Henderson rushed for 6.1 yards per carry and was far more efficient than Stevenson, who rushed for 3.3 yards per carry. Henderson is clearly the best running back on the Patriots’ roster and has real explosive ability. He’s found the endzone five times in the past four games. With the Bills giving up 18 touchdowns to opposing running backs in 13 games, I want to back one of the pair to score and it’s Henderson who is most likely.