The handicap for this line stands at Seahawks -13.5. That’s tied for the largest spread on Sunday’s slate and although I think the Seahawks cover it, I’d rather be conservative here and back a lower spread. The Seahawks have covered the spread in 10 of their 13 games this season and rank top 10 in offensive DVOA and top of defensive DVOA.

The Colts are in an interesting position. They’ve lost four of their past five games and didn’t cover in any of them. With either Riley Leonard or a 44-year old Phillip Rivers starting at QB, it’s hard to see them keeping up with a strong Seahawks team.

I find it very hard to not see the Seahawks putting up big numbers here. This offense ranks eighth in offensive DVOA and is the second highest scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 29.8 points scored per game. With the battle for the playoffs in the NFC West being so close they’re going to be hugely motivated.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense are missing a number of players who could be difference makers against the Seahawks. Last week we saw the Jaguars put up 36 points on the Colts, and the Seahawks’ offense is better in nearly every aspect of play.

The Colts secondary will be without Charvarius Ward and most likely, Sauce Gardner. Those are two big misses and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be the Seahawk that profits from that. JSN leads the NFL in receiving yards and is tied for second in touchdowns amongst wide receivers.

He’s scored five in his past five games and has really developed as a scorer this season, needing just one TD to match his career total across the previous two seasons. He’s averaging one red zone target per game too, and given the injury issues that the Colts are suffering, he could be poised for a huge Sunday.

The Colts offense is in a bad way. Riley Leonard is not a good quarterback and Phillip Rivers is now 44-years old and hasn’t played in the league since the 2020 season. It’s almost certain that this offense is going to look shaky and rusty. However, there’s one player that the Colts can rely upon and that’s Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor leads the NFL in touchdowns with 18 after 13 games and will need to put the team on his shoulders and win this for them. Expect to see the former Wisconsin man get a lot of carries. Last week with Jones injured he had 21 carries and scored a touchdown. He will be the entire Colts offense on Sunday, and if anybody is scoring, then it’s almost certainly Taylor.