While he got off to a fantastic start to the season, it’s been notably silent for the rookie first-round pick recently. Malik Nabers currently ranks 5th among all WRs in receptions and maintains an 80.2 PFF receiving grade. The good news is that he’s averaging double-digit targets over his last 5 games, and should be in-store for a quarterback upgrade. Since 2022, Daniel Jones has had the lowest ADOT in the league out of 40 qualified QBs, while Drew Lock had the 3rd highest in the NFL the last time he regularly started.

He is 66th EPA+CPOE and 48th in Adjusted EPA/Play out of 83 qualifiers since 2020, ranking out as a middle-of-the-road starter, I don’t think this market has accurately priced Nabers receiving upside with such a different starting quarterback. Despite the fact that Nabers is the only rookie to possess a 30%+ target share, he still has some problems with his workload. When asked about it last week he said:

“I started getting the ball when it was 30-0. What do you want me to do?… Talk to Brian Daboll.”

Daboll responded by saying they needed to get him more involved, and Nabers even had “a talk” with Giants GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll after ripping the team’s play and the Daboll’s offense on Sunday. If there was any spot to appease your rookie start it would be on primetime for Thanksgiving.

Since Cooper Rush took over in DAL, CeeDee Lamb has seen a slightly higher average target share than he had with Dak Prescott (26.2% and 25.3% respectively). We constantly see backups get overwhelmed and rely on one single target, Lamb is clearly that guy. I’ve complained about the Cowboys’ roster identity all year long, considering the lack of impressive weapons with Jalen Brooks and Jalen Tolbert surrounding Ceedee Lamb.

Last week, CeeDee Lamb was tied with Jakobi Meyers for most receptions (10) on the entire slate. But that kind of volume is nothing new, considering Lamb has earned 12+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s also had some impressive games against the Giants recently:

7-98-1
11-151-2
4-71-0
6-106-0
8-87-1

The Giants’ defense is pretty boom or bust, considering they can rush the passer with some solid success. When they don’t get home on those pass rush snaps, they leave their corners in a lot of man coverage situations which can open up some explosive play opportunities.

CeeDee Lamb has been top 5 all season in double coverage rate, so the more 1 v 1 chances he gets the better. The creativity they show with Ceedee Lamb constantly getting red zone snaps and first-read targets shows he’s involved in this offense no matter what.

I really disagree with Rico Dowdle numbers being priced higher, especially in the touchdown market where we are getting a rare price on a receiver of Lambs quality.