In this article…
Liverpool v Newcastle
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Kick Off: Sunday 16th March at 16:30
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Competition: Carabao Cup
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What TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool and Newcastle lock horns at Wembley in the 62nd edition of the League Cup final. History is on the side of the Reds, no side has won this trophy more than Liverpool, who will be looking to lift the trophy for the 11th time when they line up against Newcastle on Sunday afternoon.
Newcastle have not won a major trophy since 1955, they got close in this competition a few seasons ago but lost out to Manchester United. Eddie Howe will have to come up with a backup plan having lost Anthony Gordon to suspension and Lewis Hall to injury in the build up to this final.
⭐ Liverpool v Newcastle Best Bet
It’s really hard to call the winner of this final. Liverpool are certainly better placed when looking at the quality and depth they have in the side, but we are yet to see how their first proper setback of the season, in exiting the Champions League, will impact the side. Arne Slot’s men have been dominant for large periods of the season but have shown some vulnerability of late, which Newcastle will be hoping seeps its way into this final.
Newcastle have plenty of scoring power despite the absence of Anthony Gordon. Eddie Howe’s side fired three past Liverpool in the initial Premier League meeting between the sides at St James’ Park in a thrilling 3-3 draw. The reverse fixture was more dominated by Liverpool who ran out 2-0 winners and managed to stop Newcastle even having a shot on target. Wembley takes away any angles of home advantage so we are likely to see quite an even game here which should result in opportunities for both sides.
Liverpool played 120 minutes and had to deal with the tension of a penalty shoot-out in their last outing against PSG, so the long game could suit Newcastle here, who are likely to have more energy in the tank, having not played in midweek. Newcastle have already seen off Arsenal and Chelsea in the Carabao Cup this campaign, suggesting that they will be up for the challenge in attempting to find a way past the favourites. The Magpies may fall just short of lifting the trophy here, but they can find the back of the net against a Liverpool side that will still be feeling the weight of their midweek defeat.
🟢 Liverpool v Newcastle #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
This exact selection landed in the initial league meeting between the sides and looks a good option to happen again here in this final.
Newcastle and Liverpool played out a 3-3 draw at St James’ Park and whilst this game is unlikely to have the same level of fireworks due to the tension that naturally accompanies a final, there should still be chances at either end. Newcastle may look to strike late on in this game, aware that Liverpool had a grueling assignment against PSG in midweek that went the distance so energy levels might be a little low in Arne Slot’s squad.
Liverpool are averaging 6.31 corners per game in the Premier League this season whilst Newcastle are winning 5.57 per game. Newcastle managed five corners to Liverpool’s six in the 3-3 draw between the sides earlier in the campaign and Liverpool also crossed this line at Anfield with four corners. Newcastle fell two short in their 2-0 defeat to Liverpool away from home but can post a corner count more similar to their average here on neutral ground.
There is plenty of animosity between these sides and this should come out in the card numbers in this final. The 3-3 draw at St James’ Park produced seven yellow cards with four of these going to Liverpool. Frustration is likely to set in for whichever side can’t quite find the required rhythm in this final, aiding the chances of cards being shown in either direction. The referee for this game is John Brooks who is averaging 5.67 cards per game across his three appointments in the Carabao Cup this season, an average that stays pretty steady when looking across all 22 of his appointments this season (5.18 per game).
👕 Liverpool v Newcastle Predicted XI
🔍 Liverpool v Newcastle Players to Watch
🔴 Dominik Szoboszlai
It was a real surprise to see Arne Slot take off Dominik Szoboszlai before the penalty shootout against PSG. Szoboszlai is a reliable member of the Liverpool squad and covers more ground than any other player in the side. This is evident when looking at his foul numbers this season. Liverpool press high up the pitch, and Szoboszlai is the key man in making sure this press is effective with his high energy levels.
Szoboszlai is averaging 1.61 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season and committed two fouls in the meeting between the sides at St James’ Park earlier in the season, as well as committing a foul off the bench in the league meeting at Anfield. He’ll be up against Bruno Guimaraes, who is one of the most fouled players in the Premier League; he’s averaging 3.41 fouls won per 90 in the English top-flight this campaign.
⚫ Harvey Barnes
Anthony Gordon’s moment of madness against Brighton in the FA Cup has cost him a chance of featuring in this final and is a big blow to a Newcastle side who are looking to win their first major trophy since 1955. Barnes is likely to step in to replace Gordon and boasts promising shot statistics, which suggests he can be a threat to Liverpool here.
Barnes is averaging 3.30 shots and 1.30 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season. This record has returned five goals and two assists for the 27-year-old, which is quite a decent record considering that only seven of these games have been from the start.
Barnes is likely to play the majority of the final here, given that Newcastle are a little light in the wide forward areas, which should give him a few opportunities to find the target here.
📂 Liverpool v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
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💻 Liverpool v Newcastle Form and Tactics
Liverpool’s exit in the Champions League at the hands of PSG is their first major setback this season. It has been quite straightforward for the Reds, both domestically and in Europe up until this point, and the timing is also quite awkward. Liverpool played 120 minutes and had to deal with the pressure of a penalty shoot-out, whilst Newcastle have had pretty much a whole week to prepare for this game after seeing off West Ham on Monday night. It’s yet to be seen how this impacts Liverpool, but with multiple Champions League and Premier League winners scattered throughout the squad, it’s unlikely to be too much of a roadblock for Arne Slot’s men unless the game goes the distance.
Liverpool are very adaptable, and Arne Slot has tweaked their tactical setup multiple times this season, often to counteract the gameplan of the opposition. They’ll line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, but this can look like a 4-2-2-2 when Liverpool are without the ball, a common shape for Slot’s men out of possession this season. This allows Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister to press the opposition high and maintain a dangerous counter-attacking threat, with Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz ready to speed forward at any given opportunity.
Newcastle will have to change quite a few elements of their setup here. They are without Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon for the final, which will mean that Eddie Howe will have to field an unfamiliar left-hand side where Liverpool are quite strong with Salah. This could be decisive in the outcome of the game. Not only are Hall and Gordon quality players, but they are specialised to how Howe wants to play. The lack of energy down the left-hand side in their absence could leave Newcastle a bit blunt going forward and vulnerable to the best player in the league, this season, at the back.
Newcastle don’t have a pretty record against Liverpool, the Reds have avoided defeat in their last 17 meetings with the Magpies (12 wins, five draws). This is likely to add an extra psychological element to the final with the Newcastle players well aware of the challenge in front of them, not just on the pitch but also in breaking a curse which has been hanging over the black and white side of Tyneside since 1955.
🏁 Liverpool v Newcastle Ref Watch
- Referee – John Brooks
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 4.00 / 0.05 |
| Fouls Given | 22.05 |
| Penalties | 0.20 |
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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