💎 Gem Bet: Hugo Ekitike - Over 2.5 Shots v Newcastle @ 2.10 (bet365)

✅ bet365 - 2.10
SkyBet - 1.30
Paddy Power - 1.25
Betfair - 1.25

There is real value with this selection when backing with bet365, the exact same market is priced at 1.30 with SkyBet and 1.25 with both Betfair and Paddy Power.

As highlighted in my winning Community Shield Gem Bet at the start of the season, Hugo Ekitike to have three or more shots is once again the standout value play, this time under the lights at St James’ Park on Monday night. Priced at 2.1 with Bet365, compared to as low as 1.25 with PaddyPower, the disparity is staggering. That’s an implied probability gap of 47.6% v 80%, and when you break down his numbers, it’s hard to see why the market has left this line so inflated.

Ekitike’s output last season speaks for itself. For club and country, the Frenchman averages 3.6 shots per 90 and has hit three or more in 15 of his last 19 starts. Narrowing to Frankfurt alone, he racked up 22 goals and 12 assists in all competitions, averaging 3.8 shots per 90. He cleared this line in 11 of his final 14 starts, and in the three he didn’t, he still managed two attempts. Overall, he hit this mark in 30 of 43 starts (a 69.8% strike rate).

His volume only grew after Omar Marmoush’s departure, when he became Frankfurt’s focal point in attack. During that stretch, he averaged 4.16 shots per 90 and cleared 3+ attempts in 17 of 22 starts, an impressive 77.3%.

Now in Liverpool red under Arne Slot, Ekitike looks every bit the central striker this system demands: fast, direct, and constantly pulling the trigger. He’s already netted twice in his opening two games and is averaging 4.41 shots per 90 for Liverpool. In terms of raw output, he hit three shots in the Community Shield and followed it with four against Bournemouth.