When it comes to the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are the form team winning 9 on the spin, a run stretching back to the 1st of November. Only the San Francisco 49ers post a longer winning record which shows just how impressive the Bengals have been and it’s mainly been down to their red hot offence led by third year Quarterback Joe Burrow.

Across this run the Bengals, have posted 25+ points against the Ravens, Bucs, Chiefs, Steelers and Panthers often routing teams with their dynamic offence full of offensive weapons. The Bengals have Burrow under centre, with Chase, Higgins and Boyd making one of the best receiving trios in addition to running back Joe Mixon.

The Bills will struggle to contain them after giving up 31 points to the Miami Dolphins last weekend. The Dolphins ran 69 plays last weekend which will have worn out this defence who didn’t expect to see the field much. The Bills run defence was secure last week, but they let rookie Skylar Thompson throw for 220 yards. Thompson also had 45 pass attempts, if Burrow sees anywhere near that number, then the Bengals should coast to 30 points. +5.5 is the line for this game but I’m taking Bengals +7.5 which at odds of 1.57 is just disrespectful to the Bengals.

The Bengals number 9 led one of the most dynamic offences in college football history with the 2019 LSU Tigers. His WR1, Jamarr Chase was drafted to the Bengals alongside Burrow which led to a Super Bowl berth in their first year in the NFL together. Joe Burrow threw 2+ passing TD’s in the Wildcard and Conference Championship last year, showing little fear in the playoffs.

With similar passing TD numbers to last year, we can expect a similar but more composed playoff showing. Burrow has an abundance of targets to throw to and has thrown a passing TD in every game this year, only failing to register 2+ in 3 games aside from against Baltimore. The Bills allow the 4th most TD to wide receivers. Boyd, Chase and Higgins all have a real shot at helping Burrow throw 2+ Passing TD’s.

From one Quarterback to another. Josh Allen was one of the preseason favourites for MVP and despite a highly impressive season, he has seriously struggled with turning the ball over. For all his turnover issues recently, Allen has not lost his cannon of a right arm which gains chunk plays and plenty of passing yards.

Allen is also a big game player, averaging 295.7 yards in the playoffs with a passer rating of 104.6, which is one of the highest in this time. He threw two picks against the Miami defence but also posted 352 passing yards in a questionable performance. Traditionally, Allen’s passing numbers drop against teams who can’t compete with just 172 against the Bears and 147 against the Jets, games which he scored rushing touchdowns in. However, 300+ yards against the Dolphins both times, 330 against the Vikings and 329 against the Chiefs show the Bills rely on Allen’s passing in big game. Over 250 should come in at a canter.

Not a bet I typically even look at for NFL Bet Builders but I think this is incredible value for the Bills to score 14 or more points in the second half @ 1.73. The Bills offence is full of players who can change the game in an instant and often they start fast in the second half. In terms of scoring the Bills have the 5th best offence in the second half, with 12.9 points on average. However, they have turned on the jets recently with 21.3 second half points on average in their last 3 games.

The Bengals also are allowing more points in the second half recently as their defence gets worn down. They are still only allowing 11.3 points per second half in their last 3 but that was facing Tyler Huntley, Anthony Brown and Mac Jones. Josh Allen is a different entity alone, never made Diggs being better than any receiver too. Gabe Davis poses a deep threat meaning Jessie Bates should be a deep safety, allowing Diggs to get open underneath more. Huntley’s Ravens averaged 6.3 points per second half and even they came a yard away from landing this leg.