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Leeds v Norwich

The quest to return to the Premier League continues now for four Championship clubs, all of which have recent experience in the top-flight, and the first of the second legs is on Thursday as Leeds host Norwich following their 0-0 draw in East Anglia on Sunday.

We have the best football tips and predictions for the week’s action up on-site which includes our EFL tips, if you fancy taking on some extra funds for the play-offs you should visit our Free Bets Page ahead of kick-off.

For a fresh look at this week’s card, our BTTS tips will be of interest to you, while we have bet builder punters covered with our carefully curated list of the best bet builder bookmakers, along with useful guides such as how to bet on fouls and how to bet on corners.

Instinctively, the first leg 0-0 scoreline looks like a good thing for the team who finished third and are now at home in the second leg. However, data from previous Championship play-offs where the first leg ended in a draw, there is no definite evidence that the home team, who also finished higher in the table of course, will always get through:

Leeds v Norwich Best Bets

➡️ Gabriel Sara to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.91 on Betfair
➡️ Crysencio Summerville to have 2+ shots on target @ 3.0 on Betfair

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📂 Leeds v Norwich Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Leeds v Norwich match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

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⚔️ Leeds v Norwich Head-to-Head

Both teams were very cautious in the first leg. Daniel Farke’s change of formation and Norwich’s lack of penetration led to a match that was bereft of big chances, Josh Sargent’s 15th-minute header from the centre of goal was classed as the biggest chance of the match, and that was only 0.18 xG, which means, according to the xG model, there was only an 18% chance of the shot going in.

There will come a point in which one team will have to open up unless they both fancy their chances on penalties. One would therefore suggest that there will be more than just the 13 shots and three on target from the first leg. However, we have also seen from previous recent play-off campaigns above that second legs with a draw in the first one usually remain tight.

Looking at some individual events from the first leg, all of Norwich’s shots came through Marcelino Nunez (3), Gabriel Sara (2), and Josh Sargent (2), and they are probably Norwich’s three best players, so they are likely to be quite happy with that. No Leeds player had more than one shot, as they spread them around the team. As a side note, all of Marcelino Nunez’s shots came from outside the box. Only Gabriel Sara, Jaidon Anthony (as a sub), and Crysencio Summerville managed a shot on target.

Interestingly, Gabriel Sara was fouled seven times in the match, possibly a deliberate ploy from Leeds. Jonathan Rowe and Wilfried Gnonto were fouled three times each. Ilia Gruev committed four fouls, with his midfield partner Glen Kamara also committing three. Foul magnet Georginio Rutter, even though he was more restricted playing as a #9 still managed to commit two fouls and be fouled twice in return.

We can recommend a player-based bet builder which would have offered great value in the first leg, and apply that to this game based on the likely relatively similar tactical approaches of the two teams. Backing Gruev and Kamara to commit a single foul, with Sara and Rutter to be fouled at least once, and Summerville to have one shot on target comes in at a very backable 2.76.

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📊 Leeds Form and Stats

In a way, we did see some of Leeds’ recent issues continue in the first leg.

It is now one win in seven for Leeds, in four of those seven they have failed to score, and in another two they have scored just one goal, therefore making the four that they bagged away at Middlesbrough a real anomaly.

It isn’t just that chances aren’t being taken, there has been a real decline in creating them too. Four of their last six have seen Leeds create 1 xG or less, with their 0.25 xG total from Sunday their lowest of the whole season so far.

It is difficult to point to any of the Leeds forwards and say any of them are in form. Farke saw this and, for one of the first times this season, took to the pitch with only three forwards rather than four. This certainly served to solidify the team, they also conceded very little, but they will likely have to score at some stage in the second leg.

Their home form has been superb all season, until the very end. Having gone 21 matches unbeaten since the start of the season, they lost to Blackburn and Southampton in their final two home matches. However, they still won the xG battle in each of those losses, and, taking the last ten home matches into account, the Elland Road team are still running at a very healthy +1.4 xG differential.

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📊 Norwich Form and Stats

Norwich would clearly much rather be coming into this leg with a lead given the difference between their home and away form.

Having said that, their last win did come away from home, a 1-0 victory at Preston North End that almost sealed their play-off place. However, that is one of only six away wins all season.

Their away results at the top teams were three losses and two draws, with their five league fixtures this season finishing 1-3 v Leicester, 2-2 v Ipswich (derby match), 0-1 v Leeds, 4-4 v Southampton, and 0-1 v West Brom. This gives very little in the way of optimism about getting a positive result here, but in that big derby match against Ipswich, Norwich did show that they were capable of rising to an occasion.

Their last ten away matches show Norwich running at a -0.1 xG differential, having lost three of their last four xG battles away as well.

If the match was being decided on respective home and away form, then Norwich would be in trouble, but the play-offs are about much more than that.

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💰 Leeds v Norwich Best Bets 

Leeds are heavy favourites to progress, and much of the form analysis would also fall on the side of the Whites. On balance, Leeds are the likely team to make it to the play-off final, but it is very difficult to recommend a bet at heavily odds-on prices, for a team that is so clearly struggling for goals, and, even, chances to score.

With this being the case, the recommended bets for this match come in different markets. It has already been discussed that Gabriel Sara has been hindered by Leeds fouling him seven times in the first leg, therefore backing Gabriel Sara to be fouled 2+ times at 1.91 with Betfair looks like excellent value. We would also recommend backing Sara to be fouled three times at 3.75.

At some point, Leeds will have to apply some pressure, so backing their best attacker, who will play the full match, to hit the target twice at an odds-against price looks like a good bet as well. You can back Crysencio Summerville for 2 or more shots on target at 3.0 with Betfair. Our Betfair review is a great resource to bettors looking to make the most of their service.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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