12 de Octubre v Olimpia
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Sunday 4th September – 8:30PM KO
The worst side in the league by some distance will travel to Ciudad del Este to play Olimpia in a match that is on neutral ground. El Decano start the matchday joint top despite slipping up to Resistencia in a fiery game that saw both defenders sent off.
Hector Marecos is the new coach of the basement club 12 de Octubre, but in his first game against Ameliano the same story persisted with a 2-0 defeat. In fact they have conceded 2 goals or more in their last four league matches, their only clean sheet was in the surprise 1-0 win over Guaraní. Marecos had made four changes but the base of the side remain the same, simply because the club don’t have much strength in depth.
Olimpia’s preparation for this match has been hampered by the international friendly in the USA. Key striker Derlis González played 86 minutes in the win over Mexico while captain Richard Ortiz played the full 90 minutes. The other national team players Gamarra and Salcedo are suspended for this game which could make them more vulnerable than usual at the back.
There is a chance that Derlis González returns in time to play, but in any case Olimpia have found the net through their alternative forwards with Montenegro, Paiva and Walter González proving good substitutes. Given the fact the game is on neutral ground and the quality of their forward line we can expect more goals from the joint leaders.
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Prediction: Over 1.5 Olimpia Goals, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Cerro Porteño v Libertad
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Sunday 4th September – 11:00PM KO
On paper the two best sides in the country go head to head, although on form Cerro Porteño have been in a rut that they are yet to dig themselves out from. Libertad
Cerro Porteño exploded out the blocks with four straight wins before following that up with four games without a win. That said the only defeat has been the clásico against Olimpia where Chiqui Arce has often found himself outwitted by Julio César Cáceres. In the last two games the goals have returned but they have switched off late on conceding last gasp equalizers. Alexis Duarte didn’t travel with the national team but it was said to be precautionary and he could play in this game. Rafael Carrascal has a good chance of returning to the starting XI with Lucena travelling back from international duty.
Libertad’s main man has been Lorenzo Melgarejo, but the topscorer huffed and puffed to no avail for the national team and has now gone 3 games without a goal from open play. His only goal away this season has been against bottom club 12 de Octubre. In the previous game Daniel Garnero’s side conceded 2 or more goals for the fourth time in eight league games and they have only kept two clean sheets all season.
While it is valid to note that Cerro Porteño’s games are only averaging 1.75 total goals this season, Libertad are averaging 4.0 partly because of their open defence. Over 2.5 has landed in 3 of the last 6 meetings since 2021 but it is worth noting that the most recent 1-0 was a title decider with three sendings off and one that Libertad should have scored much more.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 2.10 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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