Parma v Napoli

• Parma have drawn 14 games this season, the second-most of any side in the league

• 69% of Parma’s points this season have come against teams in the top half of the league

• Napoli must to win to ensure the title is in their hands heading into the final day

Amidst a flurry of mouth-watering Serie A clashes taking place on Sunday, Napoli face off with Parma, in what’s been billed as the final major stumbling block in Napoli’s Scudetto charge.

That’s despite their final opponents, Cagliari, occupying a higher position in the league standings than Parma.

Parma, who sit in 16th position, may sit low in the table, but their energetic, free-flowing style could present a genuine threat, and as we’ll go on to detail, this wouldn’t be the first time they’ve played spoiler against the league’s top sides.

The implications of this match are pretty simple for Napoli; win, or be caught by Inter. Conte’s men are just one point clear at the top of Serie A with two games remaining, and although Inter have a tough clash with Lazio, it would be unwise to underestimate their rivals, who also have the opportunity to win their first Champions League since 2010.

For neutrals, the ideal outcome is also pretty clear. Were Inter and Napoli to finish the season level on points, the mouth-watering prospect of a first-ever play-off for the title would emerge, given that both head-to-head meetings this season ended in draws.

⭐ Parma v Napoli Predictions and Best Bets

Backing Parma to frustrate Napoli looks like value,  given their recent habit of unsettling Serie A’s elite. Remarkably, 69% of Parma’s points this season have come against teams in the top half of the league, despite both remaining fixtures coming against teams who fit this criteria (Napoli & Atalanta).

In their last six matches alone, Parma have secured a win against Juventus and draws against Lazio, Fiorentina, and Inter.

Previous to that, they had beaten each of Milan, Lazio, and Bologna, while also holding Juventus, Bologna, and Fiorentina (again) to draws. 

Even when they do fall short, Parma rarely go down quietly. With a +2 handicap applied, they’ve covered the line in 32 of their 36 league matches so far, including in each of their last 13. During that spell, they’ve stayed within range of Roma, Bologna, Inter, Fiorentina, Juventus, and Lazio.

Their home form strengthens the case further. Parma have scored 22% more goals and picked up 66% more points per game at home compared to their travels, all while maintaining an identical defensive record. Conversely, Napoli’s away performances have been slightly less convincing, adding weight to the value on offer.

⚪ Parma’s Draws Set to Secure Survival

Although wins have been tough to come by for Parma, who have managed just six since the start of the season, a series of stubborn draws should be enough to keep them in Serie A.

They’ve endured 14 this season, the second-most of any side in the league, with only Juventus, whose early season was characterised by dull stalemates, managing more.

Parma’s approach differs drastically from that of Juventus (under Thiago Motta), prioritising the same free-flowing football that got them promoted the season prior. As such, their games tend to be great watches, averaging 2.69 goals, the 5th most in Serie A.

They’ve continued in this manner in recent times, drawing six of their previous nine, including against some of Serie A’s best, as mentioned in the previous section. Beyond that, a win against Juventus and back-to-back losses to Empoli and Como in their last two, provide mixed feedback.

🔵 Napoli on Top, But the Pressure Intensifies

Having spent most of the season trailing Inter, a 10-game unbeaten run has seen them leapfrog their rivals, but the pressure to perform remains high.

During that run, Napoli have won six and drawn four, although their wins have often been unconvincing, with just two being by a 2+ goal margin.

Last time out, they dropped points in a disappointing fashion to Genoa, conceding an 84th-minute equaliser which dented their Scudetto prospects.

It was uncharacteristic of Conte’s men, who had actually been the dominant force for the majority of the game, accumulating 1.70xG to Genoa’s 0.68, and creating three big chances.

📊 Parma v Napoli Head-to-Head Key Stats

There isn’t a huge amount to go off when considering the head-to-head record between these sides, given Parma’s three-year spell in Serie B.

The only clash since was the reverse fixture, a stunning affair in which Napoli came from behind to win 2-1, courtesy of a 92nd-minute Lukaku equaliser followed by a 96th-minute Anguissa winner. 

It was somewhat of an oddity, with the Parma keeper seeing red, and having made all of their substitutions already, Parma were forced to play Del Prato (a centre-back) in goal for the remaining 25 minutes.

Even after Napoli scored the eventual winner, Parma were inches away from equalising, forcing a stunning last-minute save from Meret.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.