It’s rare that we get a backable price for Dan Ballard to have a shot and so when we do, it’s an opportunity to grab with both hands. The Sunderland centre back has been one of the most dangerous defenders in the Premier League this season when it comes to shooting, averaging 1.12 shots per 90. He’s landed this bet in 10 of his last 12 league starts, including the reverse fixture, and is always an aerial threat from any dead ball situations.

Newcastle will be battling fatigue and licking their wounds from their humbling in Barcelona on Wednesday evening and the last thing they need is a game with their biggest rivals. The Magpies have conceded the sixth most goals from set pieces in the top division and have given up a shot to an opposition centre back in each of their last five domestic games, and so Ballard poses plenty of danger.

Mateus Fernandes can be forgiven for blanking against Man City last weekend and gets another go in our acca due to his average of 0.82 shots per 90 this season. The Hammers midfielder loves to pull the trigger from range and with nine shots from his last eight league starts, is clearly in a confident mood. He also netted in the reverse fixture from one of two efforts at goal, and so should be looking forward to facing Villa again.

Unai Emery’s men are another side battling fatigues after Thursday’s Europa League tie against Lille and could be caught could by a resurgent West Ham team. The Villans have generally struggled to keep the opposition out on their own patch this season, conceding 11.33 shots per game, and with the Hammers looking to Fernandes to drag them to safety, the best way he can do is by continuing to hit the target.

Buoyed by his late equaliser at Anfield last time out and with the benefit of a midweek rest, Richarlison should be raring to go in this huge game for Spurs. The Brazilian forward is averaging 2.82 shots per 90 this season and has had at least two attempts at goal in six consecutive league starts. His goal last week came from five shots and so he’s not shy of trying his luck, and will have a go at every opportunity. 

Forest have found life on the road difficult all season and have allowed their hosts to take 13.27 shots per game. They also have to contend with having travelled to Denmark on Thursday evening, whilst Spurs had an extra days rest, and so with this game so crucial in the relegation dogfight, it’s time for a warrior like Richarlison to step up.

If Forest are to get a result, Morgan Gibbs-White will be central to their chances. The England international has been single handedly keeping the Midlands club afloat, scoring four goals in his last six away games, hitting the target eight times across that sample. Forest’s midfield maestro is a threat from all areas of the pitch and will be desperate to impress Thomas Tuchel, too.

Tottenham have been a shambled defensively under Igor Tudor, shipping 15.5 shots per game with 5.33 of those working the goalkeeper. Each of their opponents with the Croatian in charge have hit the target at least four times and if Forest are to produce a similar total, the man who is averaging 0.77 efforts on goal per 90 will surely be involved.

Set piece kings Arsenal have their first shot at a trophy on Sunday afternoon, and will no doubt be heavy reliant on their prowess from dead ball situations once more. Key to their chances from restarts is centre back Gabriel, who averages 0.84 shots per 90 across all competitions this season.

The Brazilian has managed three efforts in his last three games against Man City and will no doubt be throwing himself at every ball into the box.

Having exited the Champions League and all but given up the title race, Man City look a team with problems. They’ve looked particularly open at the back all season and are conceding nearly three shots from set pieces per game, which Arsenal can take advantage of. Games between these two sides are often cagey affairs and when it might come down to set plays, Gabriel is the most likely beneficiary.