Summer signing Patrick Agyemang has been a revelation since signing for Derby. The American has scored six goals from an average of 2.47 shots per 90 and has looked the most likely source of goals for the Rams all season. He’s landed this bet in 12 of his last 18 starts and should be highly motivated to impress against a team in a higher division.

After their stoppage time 4-3 defeat in Newcastle on Wednesday, Leeds will be licking their wounds somewhat and having made such a strong start to their Premier League season, this competition is likely low on their priority list. They’ve conceded 12.3 shots per game on the road this season and a heavily rotated line-up are more likely to give up chances which Agyemang can profit from.

Sticking with the theme of Daniel Farke being likely to shuffle his pack, it makes sense to get another Derby player on side. Bobby Clark has been in excellent attacking form in recent weeks, firing off 18 efforts at goal in his last nine starts, cashing this bet in eight of those. He appears to have been given more attacking freedom under John Eustace and in home games is averaging 2.04 shots per 90.

I’ve mentioned Leeds rotating their squad already and you only need to look at their much-changed line-up in their EFL Cup loss at Sheffield Wednesday earlier this season to get an idea of how much Farke is likely to mix things up. In any case, they’ve given up 17 shots to opposition central midfielders in their last three games and so Clark should get plenty of opportunities to pull the trigger.

Portsmouth come into this game missing the attacking trio of Josh Murphy, Colby Bishop, and Callum Lang, and so John Swift is likely to get another start in a forward role. The midfielder has averaged 1.25 shots per 90 this season, although when in a more advanced position, that average jumps to 1.63. Pompey are likely to be restricted to efforts from range against a solid Arsenal outfit, and when 75% of Swift’s efforts have come from outside the box, he looks a likely candidate to try his luck.

With this game sandwiched between crucial Premier League ties against Liverpool and Chelsea and a January fixture list that also includes two Champions League games, Arsenal can be forgiven for having their attention elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly make use of their squa,d and although they should still have more than enough to see off Pompey, there should be chances for the hosts to attack.

Benjamin Sesko looked a man possessed against Burnley in midweek, scoring twice from eight shots to rebuild his confidence. The Slovenian has flattered to deceive since joining for a handsome fee this summer, but looked back to his most dangerous under the interim charge of Darren Fletcher. His poor goal return this season has not been for a lack of trying, as he’s taken 3.29 shots in a Red Devils shirt and so is clearly not shy when it comes to attempts at goal.

Brighton come to Old Trafford off the back of an energy-sapping draw at Man City on Wednesday, and on their last visit were beaten 4-2, a game in which Sesko landed this bet. Fabian Hurzeler’s side are conceding 14.45 shots per game on their travels, and with United having smashed 30 efforts at goal at Burnley, they’re clearly going to be attacking under Fletcher’s leadership.

Manuel Ugarte is known more for his defensive work in the middle of the park, but the Uruguayan midfielder has been popping up in the opposition box since returning from injury, taking seven efforts at goal across his last three starts. His average for the season sits at 1.12 shots per 90, and his shot map shows that he’s happy to shoot from range as well as being a set-piece threat.

Having mentioned Brighton’s struggles to keep the opposition out in away games this season, they’ve also allowed opposing central midfielders 16 efforts at goal in their last six matches. Ugarte managed a shot against the Seagulls last season, and given his recent form, he can do so again at a lovely price.