When we consider that over 40% of Arsenal’s league goals have come from set pieces, it would be remiss to ignore their defenders for shots. Add in the fact that their biggest aerial threat in Gabriel is out injured and William Saliba’s price for a shot is of interest. The Frenchman had a headed effort from a set piece against Bayern Munich in midweek and inconspicuously failed to convert an open goal from another corner against Spurs last weekend, so is clearly a key target from dead balls in Gabriel’s absence.

Chelsea are fragile when defending set pieces, giving up 3.33 shots per game from them. Enzo Maresca’s side will have the benefit of a raucous home atmosphere and in what looks a crucial game in terms of the title race, set pieces will likely play a key part in the outcome as is often the case in Arsenal’s games. With such great delivery from Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka, anytime we can get a Gunners centre back at this price for a solitary shot, it needs to be taken advantage of. 

Another player who is enjoying an uptick in attacking threat this season is Chelsea midfielder Moises Caicedo who is averaging 0.95 shots per 90. A huge 80% of his shots have come from outside the box, and so he’s clearly been instructed to shoot on sight and given that he’s netted four goals across all competitions, he’s obviously got the taste for goalscoring.

Arsenal have the best defensive record in the Premier League and are only giving up seven shots per game in league action. However, their 3-1 win over Bayern Munich on Wednesday night will have taken its toll physically and with the Blues given an extra day of rest, they can catch the Gunners cold. 

If Chelsea are to get plenty of shots off on Sunday afternoon, Marc Cucurella may well get at least one of them as his average of bang on one shot per 90 this season suggests. The Spaniard has found his shooting boots in recent weeks, firing off six shots in his last four league starts, landing this bet in every game. He’s had three shots in his last three starts against Arsenal to add further weight to this pick.

I’ve touched upon the fatigue element for Arsenal already, but if we focus on their league games on the road this season, they’re allowing their opponents 9.5 shots per game. This is a huge game for their title hopes, and with many looking to crown the Gunners as champions already, the Blues will be highly motivated in a local derby to show that they can have a say in this title race.

Crystal Palace defender Marc Guehi is averaging 0.91 shots per 90 across all competitions this season and has taken at least one effort at goal in three of his five league starts at Selhurst Park. The centre back has drastically improved his productivity in the opposition box this season, with most of his threat coming from dead ball situations.

Speaking of set pieces, Man Utd are conceding 3.92 shots from such situations in the Premier League this season, with only five sides allowing more. On the flip side, only Arsenal take more set play shots than Palace and given that Ruben Amorim’s men have given up nine shots to opposition centre backs in their last five games, Guehi’s price appeals.