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Plymouth v Leeds
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Whether it is viewed as a welcome break from the rigours of the league or a distraction from the really important goals of the campaign, there is an opportunity to go on and play at Stamford Bridge or Villa Park in the 5th Round of the FA Cup.
This may well be more of a carrot for Plymouth and their fans than for Leeds, who played at both venues for the last three seasons in a row. Also, Plymouth have managed to distance themselves from the relegation places in the Championship over the last few weeks, whereas Leeds have pulled themselves back into the automatic promotion race.
Plymouth have enjoyed a pretty good season back in the second tier after their excellent third-tier title win last season. By and large the Pilgrims have stayed clear of the relegation places, and despite losing their manager and a phalanx of successful loanees in January, they have been able to, seemingly, adequately replace those people, and continue on in a similar manner.
Leeds didn’t really need to strengthen in January, but they managed to stave off any interest in their important players and have emerged in a very strong position. The Whites are in good form in the Championship and sit just behind Southampton in 3rd, ready to capitalise on any mistakes from the Saints.
The data from the Championship and FA Cup will be used to look into the markets and assess where any value could lie.
Plymouth v Leeds Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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⚽️ Match stats: Leeds very strong at both sides of the game but Plymouth will be a threat
⚽ Plymouth double chance @ 2.10
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.45
🎯 Shooting stats: Potentially shot heavy match with both sides looking dangerous
The prices for shots, especially for Leeds players, appear to be very short. However, there are a couple of angles that stand out for people who want to include the shot market in their bet builder.
Morgan Whittaker and Ryan Hardie have really dominated Plymouth’s shot count in recent weeks. Both men average massive numbers in the Championship this season, however, Whittaker only managed one shot in the original tie and Daniel Farke will try to work to keep him under wraps.
This could free up some space for Hardie. He managed three shots in the first tie and averages over 3.5 shots per 90. He could be added to a bet builder or 2 or 3 shots depending on your level of risk.
Adam Randell should also be considered. The midfielder scored the equaliser in the original tie and averages over a shot per 90, but, again, has been given more freedom recently and managed two shots in the away game.
For Leeds, Joel Piroe is likely to start, but he is restrictively short in this market. Indeed, all of Leeds’ attackers are short with Jaidon Anthony probably making the most appeal. The former Bournemouth man will probably start here again, and he managed five shots in the first match.
⚽ Ryan Hardie to have 2+ shots @ 1.20
⚽ Ryan Hardie to have 3+ shots @ 1.67
⚽ Adam Randell to have 1+ shots @ 1.25
⚽ Adam Randell to have 2+ shots @ 2.50
⚽ Jaidon Anthony to have 3+ shots @ 1.33
🛑 Fouls stats: Leeds wingers to threaten Plymouth wide defenders
Plymouth are likely to be playing a three at the back system, which means that there a couple of interesting candidates for fouls against Leeds, whose wide forwards and full backs are so dangerous.
Whether it is Wilfried Gnonto, Jaidon Anthony, Dan James or Crysencio Summerville, any of those players have a fouls against record that proves that they are fouled more than once per 90 minutes at least.
Mickel Miller played as left wing back in the original tie, and has the highest fouls per 90 numbers of a regular Plymouth player so is worth supporting in this market.
However, Brendon Galloway is also worth backing for one foul as well. He is a much bigger price but is equally likely to be threatened on the ground by the Leeds attackers.
Finally, Georginio Rutter is by far the biggest fouler of the Leeds line-up. He started the last match so is likely to line up here as well. It is fairly surprising that he hasn’t been priced up shorter here.
⚽ Brendan Galloway to commit 1+ foul @ 1.67
⚽ Mickel Miller to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73
⚽ Georginio Rutter to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.91
🚩 Corner stats: High number of corners expected at Home Park
Leeds away matches average a very high corner rate, over 12 per match. The Whites actually average substantially fewer corners earned than they concede away from home, though they did win the corners battle away from home at Bristol City on Saturday.
Plymouth at home usually equals corners too. Indeed, their home matches average the highest number of corners in the league at 13.21. They concede more than they earn, despite their excellent home record, which means that Leeds are the rightful favourites for the corner match bet market.
However, there does look to be some wiggle room from a price perspective in the totals market.
⚽ Over 3.5 Plymouth corners @ 1.40
⚽ Over 5.5 Leeds corners @ 1.60
⚽ Over 9.5 total corners @ 1.44
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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