It’s tough to find value in City games, but Semenyo seems to be providing some since his January switch from Bournemouth. With Haaland at 1.11, Marmoush at 1.25 and Cherki at 1.28 to register 1+ shots on target, this looks rather attractive at the current price.

Semenyo has averaged 1.20 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League for City, and has had one or more shots on target in each of his games, except his debut in that poor performance against United. For The Cherries, Semenyo was averaging 1.35 shots on target per 90. He’s adapted really well from being a bit of a talisman to more of a cog in a machine, netting three times in the PL already for his new club. Going back across ‘25/26, Semenyo has had a shot on target in 21 of his 25 games.

I like focusing my shots on target picks on players who have plenty of routes to landing it. Semenyo is brilliant on both feet, he gets into the box, but he also shoots from range. All those elements combined are huge positives.

Man City should have plenty of encouragement to pick up all three points in this clash, given that Arsenal slipped up at Wolves during the week, meaning that City can close the gap at the top to just two points before Arsenal take on Tottenham in the North London Derby.

Man City have been very strong at home in the Premier League this season, winning 10 of their 13 matches at the Etihad, which is the joint best home record in the division. They’ve netted 32 goals across these games, which is also the most in the league, and only conceded eight goals - this defensive record is significant, as City had their worst ever defensive home campaign under Guardiola last season, conceding 23 goals.

City comfortably beat Newcastle over two legs in the EFL Cup semi-final which took place in January. They ran out 5-1 winners over the two legs, racing into a 3-0 lead in the first half of the second leg when Newcastle visited the Etihad. Newcastle have never won at the Etihad in Guardiola’s tenure at the club, and have lost their last six trips without even scoring a goal. 

It’s not often a selection starts by discussing a different player, one that’s not even playing - but a big hinge for this bet is the absence of Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazilian has been excellent for The Toon this season, but misses this one through injury. That means a reshuffle for Newcastle. Tonali will drop into the six, as opposed to his usual position as an eight.

Guimaraes commits a hefty 1.47 fouls per 90 and his 33 is the most in the Newcastle squad. Those fouls don’t just vanish. Yes, Tonali may foul less at 0.86 times per 90, but his position will contribute to that. He doesn’t lack aggression, and playing in that deeper role in midweek, he committed two fouls - against a far weaker side than City.

He’ll also likely come across City’s most fouled players like Rodri (1.72) and Foden (1.31). Nico O’Reilly is another interesting addition to the mix, he’s drawn four fouls in two games since being moved into midfield.

Newcastle have scored 13 of their 37 Premier League goals from set pieces this season (35%), indicating that corners and other set plays are a key part of their attacking approach.

Newcastle are averaging 6.92 corners per game in the Premier League, which is the highest average of any side in the top flight this term. This metric drops slightly, but is still convincing, when looking at their away games, in which they’re averaging 6.38 corners per game. No side has won more corners on the road in the Premier League this season than Newcastle, setting them up for a healthy corner count here.

Newcastle have managed 4+ corners in all three of the meetings between these sides this term, including a tally of five when the sides last clashed in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final. If Newcastle are going to have joy here, it’s likely to come from set pieces - the threats of Thiaw and Burn can cause City problems.