Football in Portugal this Thursday sees a clash of the titans as league leaders Porto host championship rivals Benfica at the Estádio do Dragão. Both teams come into the fixture on good runs of form with 5 wins and 4 wins respectively from their last 6 games in all competitions. Porto’s consistency has seen them top the league on goal difference ahead of current champions Sporting Lisbon. Benfica have not been too far off from a title challenge this season, but lackluster performances prompted a campaign from fans to create a webpage to ‘click’ the manager Jorge Jesus back to Flamengo. This appears to have worked, after their humiliating 3-0 defeat to Porto in the cup last week, Jorge Jesus has officially been sacked on Tuesday the 28^th of December.

While there has always been a consideration for the big three in Portugal, up until very recently it was Porto and Benfica who dominated the Primeira Liga. Sporting Lisbon’s historic title last season signals their return into the mix for the championship, but this game has been a more relevant rivalry for the last 10 years. The circumstances point to a very exciting game as Benfica seek to avenge their loss last week and find a new identity away from their old manager. I’m expecting goals, cards, and one of these two teams to taste defeat on Thursday. To get you prepared for the top billing in Portugal on Thursday I’ve selected three tips for a bet builder to help you create a winning slip. Good luck!

Porto vs Benfica Bet Builder Tips & Predictions

Both Teams to Score

The previous cup fixture saw Porto dish out an unanswered three goal spanking against Benfica. This time around I think things will be different as Benfica look to rebrand and regroup without their stagnating manager. In four of the last 6 head to heads, both teams have managed to find the net. They each boast an impressive number of goals per game with 2.53 for Porto and 3.07 for Benfica. It’s unlikely that both teams won’t be troubling the keepers considering that their star men Luis Diaz with 12 goals and Darwin Nunez with 13 goals look set to play on Thursday.

Rafa, who is the second half of Benfica’s deadly duo will complete their attacking threat registering twelve assists and setting up half of Nunez’s goals this season. Mehdi Tahremi has also pitched in for Porto this season with 7 goals and will look to capitalize on Nicolas Otamendi’s absence at the back for the eagles. A notable statistic is that both teams score in over half of the two teams’ games this season (53% and 60%). Considering the lack of competition in Portugal outside of the big three this is significant and suggests that while they are able to accumulate points, there are some defensive frailties among the two sides. I expect there to be goals flying in at both ends on Thursday and BTTS looks good value at 1.65.

Otavio to be Carded

The stakes will be high in this one, so I expect tackles to be flying in and tempers to be flaring. In charge of Thursday’s action is Hugo Miguel who has been dishing out over 5 yellows per game this season. This is around the average for a ref in the Portuguese League this season with the card happiest ref managing to squeeze in over 8 per game! Nevertheless, with multiple bookings on his record this season and an expected premium for the rivalry, the task of finding a bookable player is more trivial.

The cup game last week paints a promising picture for the rematch. Each team had a player sent off and my selection for this week Otavio found himself in the book for an off the ball foul. The versatile Brazilian is as well known for his attacking ability as he is for his poor discipline. He commits just shy of 3 fouls per game and draws just over 2 fouls himself which highlights that the dynamic midfielder is commonly among the action. In the league this season he’s amassed 4 yellow cards and will line up on the same side as Benfica livewire Rafa who consistently draws the most fouls for his team. The absence of Grimaldo at the back for Benfica will buoy Otavio’s confidence to venture forward against the second string left back and I believe this will result in some tasty challenges if he is forced to track back and cover a counterattack. At home Porto have found themselves in book 3.14 times per game only topped by Boavista at 3.38 and therefore I think the Brazilian looks good odds for a booking.

Morato to be Carded

Porto have had much of the recent success in derby games having registered 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 7 meetings. They also hold the home advantage this week and on face value it appears they have a stronger squad across the board than their guests. However, I’m reluctant to wholeheartedly back The Dragons this week because Benfica will arrive this weekend under the B-team manager Nélson Veríssimo after 10 years with Jorge Jesus. Reports from the ground concerned Benfica fans after club captain Pizzi allegedly fronted a player revolt against the custodian that spiralled out of control. The dressing room had clearly been lost long before his departure, so it will be interesting to see how the players rally with a new destiny on the horizon. There is a part of me that would not be surprised to see Benfica take the shackles off and put on a show in arguably their biggest game of the season.

While this means that the Benfica attack will be looking to right the wrongs of their previous tie, there will be pressure exerted on their back line to cover their attacking exploits. Replacing the suspended Otamendi as part of their back 3 will be 20-year-old centre-back Morato who has only featured 3 times this season. In these games he’s accrued 2.05 fouls per game and been booked once since being promoted from the B team in the Summer. Slotting in at the left-hand side he will be squaring up to the badly behaved Otavio playing on the wing, who draws about the same number of fouls as he commits. Mehdi Tahremi will be playing as the right-sided striker against Morato who is the secondary goal scoring threat for Porto after their talismanic winger Luis Diaz. He is a bit of a nightmare even for veteran defenders with his physicality and draws a consistent number of fouls per game at 1.69 and picks up the occasional yellow card himself. His two centre-back partners Jan Vertonghen and Andre Almeida are approaching their sell by dates at 34 and 31 years respectively, so the brunt of the balls in behind will be Morato’s responsibility to chase instead of his leggy partners. I think he’s in for a long night with Porto’s attackers and the occasion will be too large for him which will find him on the wrong end of a yellow Thursday night with odds of 1.91.

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Porto vs Benfica Cheat Sheet

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How to watch Porto vs Benfica in Liga Portugal

📅   When is Porto vs Benfica? / Thursday 30 December 2021, 21:00
🏟   Where is Porto vs Benfica? / Estádio do Dragão (Porto)
📺 What TV Channel is Porto vs Benfica on? / BT Sport 3
📱   Online Live Streaming for Porto vs Benfica? / bet365
🟨   …And who is the referee for Porto vs Benfica? / Hugo Miguel 🇵🇹