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Portugal v Scotland Bet Builder Tips

Portugal v Scotland Bet Builder Tips

Saturday 7 September, 20242 min read
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Robin Bairner

Robin is a specialist in Scottish and French football and has been with us since 2022. He loves championing the young talent that Ligue 1 produces on a seemingly perpetual basis as well as the chaos of the unique world of SPFL football. He is currently based in central Scotland and can be found weekly taking in games and rating pies at windswept venues across the country.

In this article...

Portugal v Scotland Bet Builder Tips

Scotland head to Portugal for what could be their toughest test in this Nations League campaign.

Portugal got off to a winning start, securing a hard-fought 2-1 win over Croatia, whilst Scotland fought back from 2-0 down to draw level with Poland, only to throw away the point by conceding a last-gasp penalty which was scored by Nicola Zalewski.

You can also check out our Portugal v Scotland betting preview for our expert's favourite data-led selections.

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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip

🏆 Portugal (-1) handicap

📈 Odds: 1.62

Portugal have an excellent home record, winning all of their last nine home matches since a Nations League defeat by Spain in September 2022. They have won seven of these fixtures by more than a single goal, with the exceptions being a 3-2 success over Slovakia and their 2-1 win over Croatia. They swept aside Ireland, a side that plays similarly to Scotland, 3-0 in a June friendly. Scotland come into this game on a low ebb. Their morale will have been hit by the late loss against Poland, which means they have won only one of their last 13 international matches—a 2-0 victory over Gibraltar. They have lost eight of these games. The visiting side are prone to making poor defensive errors, especially against strong opponents. Steve Clarke's men have already conceded three or more goals six times against high-level rivals over the last year. The scheduling favours Portugal, who have a far deeper squad than the Scots and can bring more quality off the bench for a second game in a few days. Key Scotland players such as Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay are also lacking game time, which hampers Steve Clarke’s plans further.

🎯 Rafael Leao to have 1+ shots on target

📈 Odds: 1.62

AC Milan winger Rafael Leao is expected to be a major threat in this match as he will square up against Anthony Ralston, who will be in the right wing-back role for Scotland. Ralston has been targeted by opponents because he is a clear weak link in the defence, which means that the former Lille winger is bound to see lots of the ball in this game. While his record with Portugal is modest, Leao typically offers a very significant goal threat for Milan, where he has posted 1.36 shots on target per 90 in Serie A so far this season. He has achieved more than 1.0 shots on target per 90 in three of the last four campaigns. He was withdrawn at half-time in the match against Croatia and should be bursting with energy for this game, as well as a determination to make a positive impact for his side. He should be capable of doing so against a weak opponent. Scotland have conceded at least one shot on target from a left winger or left-sided attacker in three of the four matches Ralston has played. The only exception was Switzerland’s Michel Aebischer, who was very much deployed as a wing-back in a 1-1 draw.

🛑 Anthony Ralston to commit 1+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.50

Anthony Ralston has been a target for opposing teams since he came into the Scotland team prior to Euro 2024 because of an injury crisis, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, with Steve Clarke’s lack of options in the right-back area meaning it is likely that the Celtic defender once again plays 90 minutes. He has conceded at least two fouls in each of his last two internationals, while has given up at least one in three of his last four competitive games for Scotland. Has also given up at least one foul in four of the six tournament fixtures he has started. In one of the exceptions – a home win over Armenia in 2022 – he was used as a right midfielder as opposed to a right-back, which is where he will likely play here. He will be facing a very direct winger in the form of Rafael Leao, who has been fouled in eight of the last 11 international games he has played. This figure is likely to be exaggerated in this match, too, with the Milan ace primed to see a good deal of the ball and asked to attack his opposite man.

🛑 Scott McTominay to commit 1+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.20

McTominay is prolific when it comes to committing fouls for Scotland, having done so in 10 of his last 11 competitive games for his country. Committed three fouls against Poland in midweek, which was a symptom of his willingness to give everything for the cause. He was involved in numerous duels, also winning three fouls himself, pointing to the fact that he is heavily involved in the action both offensively and defensively. Plays virtually every minute in competitive football for Scotland. Since 2019, he has been taken off only once for the national team when he has started – a total of 33 games, two of which have gone to extra-time. On the one occasion he was taken off, he was withdrawn in the 89th minute, so he is very likely to play the vast majority of this fixture. Portugal’s deepest midfielders against Croatia, Vitinha and Bernado Silva, won three of their six free kicks in their previous encounter. Vitinha is injured here but likely replacement Joao Neves has won 2.21 fouls per 90 in league football for his clubs over the three seasons he has played. Likely head-to-head opponent for McTominay.

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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip

🚩 Over 7.5 Portugal corners

📈 Odds: 2.55

Portugal have been prolific at winning corners in recent months and against Scotland that run is unlikely to stop. At Euro 2024, they won more corners than any other nation, posting 47 over the course of the competition, despite being knocked out in the quarter-final stage. By comparison, winners Spain managed 44, while Germany were next best with 36. Roberto Martinez’s side, who admittedly twice went to extra-time, were winning 8.25 per 90 minutes. Portugal won six corners against Croatia last Thursday but are likely to dominate territory and possession to a greater extent in this match, offering up more opportunities to win corners. The quality of their wide attacking players, Rafael Leao and Pedro Neto, should mean that Scotland's defence is stretched, whether it is via crosses, cutbacks or shots that need to be blocked. Scotland gave up 6.33 corners per 90 at the European Championships, which was the seventh-poorest record among the 32 sides that took part. They did only concede three to Poland last Thursday, but Robert Lewandowski’s side only won 3.33 per 90 at the Euros, so that is not suggestive of Scotland tightening things up at the back.

🩹 John McGinn to be fouled 2+ times

📈 Odds: 1.73

Aston Villa midfielder John McGinn is a foul magnet when he plays for Scotland, as was illustrated on Thursday as he won five free kicks for his side against Poland at Hampden. Despite only playing three times at Euro 2024, he was one of the most fouled players in the competition, having won nine free kicks at the rate of 3.46 per 90 minutes. Portugal do not typically give away too many fouls, but those that they do commit often come in the central midfield area. For example, at Euro 2024, Joao Palhinha (six), Bruno Fernandes (five) and Ruben Neves (three) all placed among their six leading players in terms of giving away free kicks. McGinn, meanwhile, is adept at drawing even disciplined players into giving away free kicks in this area and is liable to be a key outlet with his back to goal. Has won at least two fouls in 21 of his last 25 competitive matches for club and country, including all of the four games he has played this season. In Scotland’s last 12 competitive matches, he has been fouled at least twice on nine occasions. One of the exceptions was Germany in the opening game of Euro 2024 when he was withdrawn midway through the second half.

🚀 Bruno Fernandes to have 3+ shots

📈 Odds: 2.0

Bruno Fernandes has been a highly influential figure for Portugal offensively in recent months, taking on far more responsibility for getting shots at goal since the beginning of the Euro 2024 qualifying process. He has had at least three shots in three of his last four internationals overall. Across his last six competitive outings for Portugal at home specifically, he has had at least three shots on goal on an impressive five occasions. Last Thursday, he had four shots against a Croatia side far more defensively robust than Scotland, with two of these finding the target. Curiously, the exception was a 9-0 win against Luxembourg, in which he had only two shots throughout his 90-minute appearance, but did score. Playing in Portugal clearly suits him. He is liable to be up against a Scotland midfield that may be lacking in match sharpness. Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay, who may well play a more advanced role, both have limited minutes at club level this season and could be lacking in energy, potentially opening up more opportunities for the Manchester United star to get efforts away – an invitation he will surely take.

🛑 Scotland to commit 11+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.25

Scotland are liable to adopt a physical attitude in this match to try to restrict Portugal as much as possible, which will likely mean giving away a high foul count. This has been typical of the approach of Steve Clarke’s side since he took charge of the national team. Gave away 13 fouls against Poland on Thursday, playing with a high press and taking chances with their defensive work. Liable to be more defensive in Portugal but history shows this is unlikely to impact the foul count they produce significantly. Throughout the entire Euro 2024 campaign, including qualifying, Scotland conceded 11 or more fouls in nine of their 11 matches. Have committed 13 or more fouls in six of their last 12 competitive fixtures. Portugal won an average of 10.0 fouls per 90 during Euro 2024 but are coming up against a team that gave away 12.0 per 90 in the same competition. In Germany, Portugal’s highest foul count came against Georgia, who are the team they faced that are most likely to play in the same style as Scotland.

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