Just 4 points separate Newcastle and Bournemouth in this top-half clash on Saturday lunchtime at St James’ Park yet Newcastle’s odds are just 1.55 to win.

Those odds imply Newcastle have a 65% of winning yet they have won 11 of 21 Premier League games – just 52% in comparison. Throw in Bournemouth have only lost five of 21 league matches this season (24%) and Andoni Iraola’s side to avoid defeat makes perfect sense at the prices.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 9 Premier League games and actually rank 3rd in expected points with 38.12 – higher than Newcastle’s 33.50. Their excellent season has been built on their ability to get a high number of shots away with them hitting the joint 3rd most per game with 16.2.

They have actually underperformed with their actual points totalling 34 – four fewer than their expected – which would have them 3rd in the league. This underperformance comes from their failure to take the high-quality chances they are creating. They have created the 4th most expected goals with 43.57 but have only scored 32 goals – the 2nd biggest underachievement in the league.

The main villains here come in the form of Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson and Dango Ouattara who have 15 goals between them from 26.42 expected goals. Evanilson being out injured may actually work in their favour here with Bournemouth putting five past West Brom in the FA Cup and two past Chelsea in midweek without him.

This should be more competitive than the odds suggest and backing Bournemouth +2 on the Handicap means Newcastle need to win by 2 or more goals for the bet to lose. This bet would have won in 20 of Bournemouth’s 21 matches this season (95%) and they come into this match with an extra days rest ahead of an early kick-off.

Goals and excitement have been guaranteed with the match ticket at the Gtech Community Stadium this season, and the Premier League’s great entertainers produced the goods again in midweek when they earned a point with a thrilling comeback against Man City (2-2).

Fixtures at the Gtech have been averaging a league-high 4.55 goals per game this term, while Brentford have plundered more goals at home (29) than any other team in the division.

In addition, 82% of their home fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals with 73% featuring over 3.5 goals and 45% of the same matches going over 4.5. The best bet however is Both Teams to Score, which has landed in a massive 91% of their assignments at the Gtech.

More of the same is anticipated when the Bees test themselves against title-favourites Liverpool. The Reds have conceded 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 away tussles in the Premier League and their fixtures on the road have generated an unmatched average of 4.00 goals per 90 minutes overall since August.

Brentford always seem to excel in fixtures of this nature, expect this one to flow from end to end. Look to the goal markets for profit here by backing both teams to score.

Since Ruud van Nistelrooy arrived at Leicester City there’s been 26 goals in his 8 Premier League matches at an average of 3.25 per game, with 6 of those games seeing over 2.5 goals.

Leicester have lost nine of their last 11 matches in the league. Defensive issues still remain, with the Foxes now having conceded at least 2 goals in their last 7 league matches.

With Marco Silva’s men performing well having lost just 5 league games all season, they should be able to more than contribute here. 11 of their last 17 games have seen 3 or more goals (65%) and the reverse fixture already saw 3 goals with Fulham running out 2-1 winners.

Arsenal squeezed a victory out of Wednesday’s North London Derby against Tottenham, though an own goal from Dominic Solanke proved a crucial determiner in their 2-1 win over their local rivals and the Gunners still look short of quality in the final third.

Mikel Arteta’s goal-shy troops have now notched 1 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 6 home assignments in league and cup, and had Solanke not put past his own keeper in midweek, that record might have made for even grimmer reading.

Arsenal – who hold the Premier League’s only remaining unbeaten home record – could find a way to beat Aston Villa on Saturday evening – though any margin of victory for modest scorers is likely to be slim.

The Villans, who dug out a 1-0 win at Everton on Wednesday, tend to do well at the Emirates Stadium. Former Arsenal boss Unai Emery masterminded a 2-0 win for Villa in last season’s corresponding fixture, which was one of 2 victories for the visitors in their last 4 visits to that venue.

With Arsenal very unlikely to cut loose in the final third in their current form, Villa offer top value in the handicap markets for Saturday and the odds in the +2.0 handicap realm provide a generous avenue to explore.