Marítimo v Casa Pia
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Monday 3rd October – 8:15PM KO
The weekend’s action in Portugal comes to an end on Monday as 6th-placed Casa Pia pay a visit to 18th-placed Marítimo. Casa Pia are playing Primeira Liga for the first time in 83 years and have enjoyed a sensational start to the campaign under Filipe Martins, with the Gansos (Geese) having the joint-best defense in the league alongside Benfica with 3 goals conceded after 7 games, conceding in a 1-0 defeat to neighboring Lisbon club Benfica and a 3-2 victory against Paços de Ferreira. Apart from that, they have kept five clean sheets, with two draws coming against Santa Clara and Arouca, a 2-0 win against Boavista and 1-0 wins against Famalicão and Vitória. Last season saw Casa Pia concede just 22 goals in 34 matches – 9 fewer than the nearest competitor – to finish second and seal automatic promotion to the top-flight, and they have continued their impressive defensive record in the top-flight.
The Geese are averaging a goal per game with Nigerian winger Saviour Godwin forming a stellar trident in attack alongside new arrivals Rafael Martins and Takahiro Kunimoto and helping them find the back of the net in four of their last five matches. With the likes of Afonso Taira and Leonardo Lelo chipping in from midfield, I would not be surprised to see Casa Pia find the back of the net against a Marítimo side who have suffered a dismal start to the campaign. They are the only team in Europe’s top 10 leagues who have lost every single match they have played in, and after Paços de Ferreira closed out September with a draw to Santa Clara, they are now the only team in Portugal who have yet to pick up a point. They have conceded 22 goals after 7 games, the worst tally for a Primeira side since Salgueiros let in 25 from their first 7 in the 1984/85 campaign, a season that also saw Marítimo earn promotion to the Portuguese top-flight, where they have remained ever since.
They are the first Portuguese team to lose each of their first 7 matches since S.C.U. Torreense in 1964/65, and with 4 goals scored, they have the second-worst attack in the league behind Famalicão (1) – it is no coincidence that these are the only two sides who have sacked their manager so far. João Henriques replacing Vasco Seabra at the helm has done little to stabilize the ship in Madeira, and whilst they will have a tough time keeping a clean sheet against Casa Pia’s lethal counter-attacking system, I’m not convinced they have what it takes to score a goal against one of the toughest defenses in Europe right now. The island side have taken early leads on three occasions to Santa Clara, Gil Vicente, and Chaves only to cough up second-half goals and collapse, whilst their other goal came at the backend of a 5-1 drubbing to Porto. Braga, Portimonense and Benfica have all been able to keep Marítimo’s attack under wraps, and I think Casa Pia should be able to do the same. The departures of Rafik Guitane (loan return to Reims) and Ali Alipour and Iván Rossi have taken a toll in the club’s attacking options and it remains to be seen whether the incomings can match their level – I’m expecting Casa Pia to be able to hold Marítimo to a clean sheet here.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score – No, 1.87 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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