Boavista v Sporting

After a summer that saw them lose key players such as Pablo Sarabia, Matheus Nunes and João Palhinha, cough up the lead on three separate occasions in a 3-3 draw at Braga on the opening day of the Primeira Liga season, and fall to a 3-0 defeat in Porto and a 2-0 defeat at home at Chaves, Rúben Amorim’s Sporting looked set for a challenging September, only for the Lions to open the month with a 2-0 win at Estoril, a 3-0 victory at Eintracht Frankfurt, a 4-0 win vs. Portimonense, and a 2-0 win at home against Tottenham Hotspur to go three points clear atop Group D.

They’ll be looking to continue their impressive form at the Estádio de Bessa against a Boavista side that sits fifth in the table after six games – level with Portimonense and two points above Sporting. Boavista began the campaign with a 1-0 win at Portimonense, a 2-1 win vs. Santa Clara, a 2-0 defeat at Casa Pia, and a 3-0 home defeat to Benfica, before beating Paços de Ferreira 1-0 and beating 10-man Arouca 2-1, and they’ll be looking to pick up their first point against Sporting since September 15, 2019 in a 1-1 draw that would see Bruno Fernandes equalize at the hour-mark before picking up a second yellow 30 minutes later. 

Apart from that result, Sporting have won each of their last 12 fixtures against the Axadrezados by a combined scoreline of 26 to 2, and I’m expecting them to continue that form against Petit’s men as they look to narrow the gap on the top four and head into the international break with a strong result in Porto.

After being held to successive clean sheets against Porto and Chaves, Sporting have responded with 11 goals in their next 4 games thanks to Marcus Edwards, Pedro Gonçalves and Francisco Trincão showing a newfound synergy in attack. It is a front three that does not have a singular reference point, with each of the attackers interchanging positions and creating havoc with their mix of dribbling, speed, and link-up play.

Despite Paulinho and Arthur Gomes making their presence known with goals off the bench in extra time in a 2-0 win against Spurs, there is zero chance that Amorim will be tweaking with any of his starting options ahead of a two-week international break: expect Matheus Reis to partner Gonçalo Inácio and Sebastián Coates in the back three and Antonio Adán to start in goal, expect Hidemasa Morita and Manuel Ugarte to partner wingbacks Pedro Porro and Nuno Santos in Sporting’s midfield, and expect Sporting to grab another victory against the Panteras, one that should include more than 2.5 goals.

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Casa Pia v Famalicão

Casa Pia have the joint-best defence in the Primeira Liga with 3 goals conceded in their first 6 games, a feat equalled by league leaders Benfica, and they will be hosting Famalicão, who have the worst attack in Portugal with 1 goal scored from 6 games, at the National Sports Center of Jamor on Sunday.

Despite conceding a brace from Spanish striker Adrián Butzke at the weekend, Filipe Martins’ side pulled out a 3-2 victory on the road at Paços de Ferreira thanks to goals from Saviour Godwin, Neto and Clayton, with the Lisbon-based side climbing to sixth in the table – one point above Sporting and Estoril Praia, one point behind Portimonense and Boavista. Their opponents currently sit in the relegation play-off spot with 4 points and have opened their season with a 2-0 loss to Estoril, a 3-0 loss to Braga, a 0-0 draw at Gil Vicente, a 1-0 win vs. Santa Clara, and a pair of 0-1 defeats to Portimonense and Benfica.

After joining on deadline day from Lens, Simon Banza led Famalicão with 14 goals in the Primeira to lead them to an eighth-place finish, before returning from his loan spell and joining Braga on a permanent deal for €3 million – he currently sits atop the league’s scoring charts with 5 goals, 2 of those coming in a 3-0 victory in Famalicão. Fama have signed 22-year-old Spanish striker Alex Millán on loan from Villarreal and 32-year-old Portuguese striker Rui Fonte on a free transfer, but their only goal has come from 23-year-old French midfielder Zaydou Youssouf who arrived in the summer from Saint-Ètienne.

Fama finished sixth in 2019/20, their first top-flight campaign in 26 years, but struggled to build on that momentum after narrowly missing out on European football on the final day of the season to Rio Ave. They failed to replace key players such as Pedro Gonçalves (Sporting) and Toni Martínez (Porto) and found themselves mired in a relegation fight that preceded the departure of João Pedro Sousa on January 31, 2021 with Ivo Vieira taking charge, stabilizing the ship and leading them to a 9th-place finish.

The following season, Famalicão struggled to replace the departure of key players like Manuel Ugarte and Rúben Vinagre, both of whom had arrived in the January window, only for the January arrivals of João Carlos Teixeira, Junior Kadile and Jhonder Cádiz as well as the departure of Vieira on December 19 and the subsequent appointment of Rui Pedro Silva to stabilize their form and allow them to finish ninth. Notice a pattern?

Apart from a 3-0 defeat to Braga, each of Famalicão’s matches have featured under 2.5 goals. Apart from a 3-2 victory against Paços de Ferreira, each of Casa Pia’s matches have featured under 2.5 goals. I’m expecting a cagey, low-scoring battle between a Casa Pia side that is flourishing in their first top-flight campaign in 83 years and a Famalicão side who are in desperate need of a point and will be looking to shut up shop against the likes of Godwin Saviour, Takehiro Kunimoto and Rafael Martins.

Casa Pia earned promotion last season thanks to a defence that conceded 22 goals in 34 matches, nine fewer than their nearest competitor, and they will be looking to collect their fifth clean sheet of the season against the lowest-scoring team in the league. I’m expecting under 2.5 goals for this one.

Benfica v Maritimo

After a promising start to life in Madeira that saw his side defeat Paços de Ferreira and Santa Clara and draw to Boavista, Vasco Seabra’s Marítimo fell to a 7-1 defeat to Benfica at the Estádio da Luz on December 19, bouncing back with three consecutive victories and finishing 10th in the table, only to start the campaign with five straight defeats and become the first manager in Portugal’s top-flight to be sacked.

João Henriques took the reins and led Marítimo to the same exact result as Seabra’s final match in charge vs Santa Clara – once again, they took an early lead only to concede twice in the second half and fall to to Gil Vicente. The island side began the campaign with a 5-1 defeat to Porto at the Dragão before losing 2-1 at home to Chaves, 5-0 at Braga, 1-0 at home to Portimonense and losing 2-1 to Santa Clara and Gil Vicente, and they remain one of only two teams in Portugal who have yet to register a point, alongside Paços de Ferreira.

Whilst Paços and Marítimo have both scored four goals, Marítimo have conceded three more goals and have the worst defence in the Primeira with 17 goals shipped. They have conceded 10 goals in their two fixtures against Porto and Braga this season, and I would not be surprised to see them concede three or more goals in their trip to the Luz. Apart from a 2-0 defeat in Madeira on July 29, 2020, Benfica have won each of their last eight fixtures against Marítimo by a combined scoreline of 29 to 2.

Marítimo will likely have to wait until October for their first points of the season as they take on a Benfica side that have won each of the 17 games that they have played under new manager Roger Schmidt (including preseason) and who are coming off their biggest test yet – a 2-1 victory at Juventus.

Benfica will be well aware that last season saw them enter October with a perfect record only to open the month with a defeat to Portimonense and quickly collapse under Jorge Jesus with the veteran manager being sacked in December as the Eagles were forced to settle for a second straight second-placed finish, but they are nevertheless firing on all cylinders and they will be looking to keep up their excellent form against a Madeira side that will be without various key defenders like Zainadine Júnior and Matheus Costa. I’m expecting Benfica to grab at least three goals against a beleaguered Marítimo side.

Braga v Vizela

Despite a perfect start to Benfica, Artur Jorge’s Braga remain hot on their heels with two points separating them from the league leaders, with Braga scoring 7 more goals than Benfica or any other Portuguese side with 21 goals from 6 games – only Paris Saint-Germain (25) have scored more in Europe’s major leagues.

They have had some close calls as of late – starting the month with a 1-0 victory against Vitória with a last-second free kick goal in the Dérbi do Minho, before beginning their Europa League campaign with a 2-0 win against Malmö, surviving a late comeback from Rio Ave and escaping Vila de Conde with a 3-2 victory, and beating the Bundesliga leaders Union Berlin 1-0 with a late goal from Vitinha, and they will be looking to keep the pressure on Roger Schmidt’s side with a victory against Vizela at the Estádio Municipal de Braga.

After earnining promotion to the top-flight for the first time since 1985, Vizela finished 14th in their return to the Primeira, securing safety on the penultimate day of the season and losing each of their league matches to Braga (1-0 and 4-1). They currently find themselves 13th after 6 matches, level with 14th-placed Rio Ave and one point above Santa Clara and Famalicão, and they’ll be looking to pick up their first victory since opening day.

After conceding early and battling their way back to draws against Chaves and Gil Vicente, Vizela would lose 2-1 to Benfica, conceding a last-second penalty goal to João Mário, before losing 1-0 at home to Estoril Praia with summer arrival Erison opening the scoring within a half-hour and Vizela’s Tomás Silva receiving his marching orders in the 73rd minute.

Braga have pulled off one of the best signings of the summer in Portugal in Simon Banza, who sits atop the league’s scoring charts with 5 goals from 6 games, and they’ve managed to keep hold of captain and all-time top scorer Ricardo Horta amid interest from Benfica and have continued to bolster their squad with the arrivals of Uroš Račić, Sikou Niakaté, Diego Lainez and more.

With the exception of an opening day 3-3 draw to Sporting that saw them erase three separate deficits, Braga have won every single match so far under new manager Artur Jorge, and I’m expecting that form to continue against Vizela. With a fearsome front four of Horta, Vitinha, Banza, and Iuri Medeiros combining with Al Musrati and Andre Horta in midfield, there aren’t too many teams in Portugal who can keep Braga’s attack quiet, and I don’t think it will be this Vizela side who holds them to a clean sheet for the first time since April 18.

I’m expecting Braga to win against Vizela, I’m expecting them to wrap up the proceedings early on after experiencing some late drama in their recent clashes, and I’m expecting the Arsenalistas to win with at least a two-goal margin.

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