RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich Cheat Sheet
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
It’s been 67 days since both RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich played their last Bundesliga game, but on Friday night it’s third-placed Leipzig who host leaders Bayern in what should be a spectacle. It’s difficult to judge form given the lengthy period the Bundesliga has had off because of the World Cup and the winter break, but this fixture sees the two high-scoring teams in the Bundesliga face-off.
Julian Nagelsmann’s Bayern are outscoring their xG metric (40) by 9 whilst RB Leipzig have 30 Bundesliga goals this season, although they’ll be without Christopher Nkunku this weekend, a huge miss given his 12 goals in 15 league games this season.
Yann Sommer completed his move to Bayern on Thursday and is expected to start in goal, whilst Leroy Sane has recovered from a gastrointestinal infection and is likely to feature. Nagelsmann will also be without long-term absentees Lucas Hernandez and Noussair Mazraoui, but Leon Goretzka is expected to return alongside Joshua Kimmich in central-midfield.
Both Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig come into this fixture unbeaten in 13 games across all competitions and both are expected to be fighting for the Bundesliga title come May. If Bayern Munich win on Friday, they’ll move nine clear of Leipzig.
Leroy Sane has recovered from a gastrointestinal infection and is likely to start against RB Leipzig. It’s possible that he will start ahead of Serge Gnabry on the right-flank, but even off the bench, he can still provide a threat. Sane averages 65 minutes per game with an average of 1.82 shots finding the target. His direct style of play will prove problematic against a players such as Marcel Halstenberg. With 8 goal contributions in just 840 minutes of Bundesliga football this season, Sane has a high output and alongside Jamal Musiala, is one of Nagelsmann’s key players in the final third. Expect Sane again to see a lot of the ball, looking to create with his neat dribbling and explosive pace, which generally leads to a chance created or a shot towards goal. He is Bayern’s dangerman on Friday.
Bayern Munich lead the way in the scoring charts with 49 goals after 15 games. Nagelsmann’s side have scored 5 or more goals 5 times this season, against Eintracht Frankfurt, Bochum, Freiburg, Mainz and Werder Bremen. The emergence of Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting following the departure of Robert Lewandowski has been nothing short of extraordinary, scored 6 goals in 10 games and averaging a Bundesliga goal every 87 minutes. But it’s Jamal Musiala that’s the star of the show with 9 goals and 6 assists in 14 league games. Bayern are ruthless in the final third and without Lewandowski, the goals are being shared which makes them far more dangerous.
But whilst RB Leipzig will be without Christopher Nkunku, they still provide a considerable goal threat with Andre Silva, Timo Werner and Dominik Szoboszlai. Silva, Szoboszlai and Dani Olmo all average more than 1 shot per 90 and against a defence without Hernandez and Mazraoui, and the commanding Manuel Neuer in goal, you would fancy Leipzig to score. They’ve only failed to find the net on two occasions in the Bundesliga this season.
With both teams to score, I still fancy a winner in this fixture which would see three goals. Bayern Munich are favourites but also expect Leipzig to make it difficult for Nagelsmann’s side. Both teams favour direct football whilst both Bayern and Leipzig create a high percentage of chances in the final third. Only Bayern (12) average more chances created per 90 than Leipzig (8), and so expect to see action at both ends of the pitch. The last three meetings across all competitions have all featured goals (3-5, 3-2, and 1-4), and we can expect this to be similar.
Over 2.5 Goals is also a best bet in my Germany and Holland Predictions and Best Bets Article.
A leader, Joshua Kimmich is arguably Julian Nagelsmann’s first name on the team sheet. Although relatively conservative in his tacking, committing just 0.99 fouls per 90, Kimmich can get heated, which has resulted in three yellow cards in 15 Bundesliga games already this season. Against Xaver Schlager and Emil Forsberg in the absence of Nkunku, expect Kimmich to put the kilometres in and to make a necessary tackle when defending a Leipzig counter-attack, if he needs to. Alongside Leon Goretzka, Kimmich doesn’t mind doing the dirty work and with the referee showing an average of 4.13 yellow cards per this season per my cheat sheet, Kimmich may just be on the receiving end of one of them.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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