Manchester City are hot 1.62 favourites to get the win in normal time, and given their European record at the Etihad, it’s easy to see why.

Of their last 31 Champions League matches at home, dating back to a 2-1 home loss against Lyon in September 2018, they have emerged victorious on 29 occasions. Twice they have drawn, yet these were inconsequential matches for them. One was a 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk as they cruised through the groups in 2019 and the other was a stalemate with Sporting in 2022 after they were 5-0 up from the first leg.

In short, when the chips have been down, Manchester City have won.

Perhaps more impressively, they have been winning matches in spectacular style. Only once since beating Real Madrid 4-3 in the 2022 semi-final have they failed to score at least three goals – 10 of 11 games. City have hit the net 40 times in these games.

For this reason, a high-scoring match should be predicted. Allied to this remarkable home scoring record, they have hit the net on exactly three occasions in each Champions League match they have played this season.

Real Madrid are, of course, no lambs to the slaughter. After all, they have won all four away trips in Europe this season, scoring nine times in the process.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side, though, have conceded five goals in four matches and were remarkably fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Leipzig in a 1-0 win in the previous round.

On the plus side for the visitors, they are likely to have Nacho and Antonio Rudiger together at centre-= back. With this pairing, they have lost only one of 18 matches this season, while Andrey Lunin has kept eight clean sheets in 11 games behind this duo.

Good luck doing it against a team as powerful as City, though.

Man City possess considerable firepower for this game and should have Kevin De Bruyne back in their starting XI after he missed the first leg after being ill in the changing room.

The Belgian has managed at least one shot on target in three of his last four matches against Real Madrid. At 1.73, he looks like a generous price given that he is clearly coming into form and has five shots on target in his last 169 minutes on the park.

With five of his last 10 starts yielding at least two shots on target, odds of 4.5 also look tempting.

Bernardo Silva, though, is the player who so often shines against Real Madrid. This was proven in the first leg as he scored early on. With this in mind, his price of 7.5 to test Andrey Lunin twice looks remarkably long and even 2.4 on one effort on target looks good.

So what of Erling Haaland? Criticised lately for a lack of production, he still has 4.12 shots and 1.92 on target per 90 for the season. These numbers have dried up lately. He has managed only one game with multiple shots on target in his last eight for City and has had more than 4 shots just once in this run, too. Of course, he will explode again at some point, but he should be treated with caution given the skinny odds.

From a Real Madrid perspective, Rodrygo offers the best value for a shot on target. He managed two, after all, in the first leg and also worked Ederson last season when Ancelotti’s men visited the Etihad.

This season, the young Brazilian has managed 15 shots on target in the Champions League – more than double any of his team-mates.

At 1.83, he offers better value than Vinicius Junior, who will likely lead the line. While he has 1.02 shots on target per 90 in the Champions League, Rodrygo has 2.

Jude Bellingham is available at the same price but has a shooting rate similar to Vinicius Junior. The England international has only had four shots in total across the last three games and only one effort on target in his last four.

There were only 20 fouls in total during last weekend’s match, which still managed to yield four yellow cards, two to each side.

It would be surprising, therefore, if there was to be a significant foul count in this game. Both of these teams are typically clean.

Last week, Real Madrid spread their 11 fouls out, with only Dani Carvajal, Eduardo Camavinga and Vinicius Junior picking up 2. On the other hand, City’s 9 fouls were spread among five players, with Manuel Akanji and Erling Haaland picking up 2 each while Phil Foden had 3.

Camavinga offers a strong bet to repeat that high foul count. After all, the France star has 2.71 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season. He is short odds at 1.5 to do so again in this match, but there is a reason for this and a strong possibility that he will do so.

Similarly, Dani Carvajal is giving away nearly 2 free kicks per 90 in the Champions League, so his price of 1.33 to concede just one looks strong.

From a City perspective, Akanji could again be vulnerable if Real are playing on the break, as is probable. The pace of Vinicius and Rodrgyo could force him into a rash challenge or two, so his price of 1.53 for one foul or 3.6 for two, is arguably the most attractive among Pep Guardiola’s players.