It’s easy to forget how talented Rodrygo is amongst Real Madrid’s star studded lineup, the Brazilian has registered five goal contributions across his seven Champions League appearances this season whilst averaging 1.32 shots on target per 90. He managed one shot in the first leg meeting which was heading for the target but was clocked from close range, he’s had at least one shot on target in four of his last five Champions League games suggesting that he can find the target in this crucial second leg game. Real Madrid were really effective in exposing the weaknesses Manchester City have had in managing transition this season, they had 20 shots at the Etihad Stadium in the first leg with eight of these efforts finding the target. Carlo Ancelloti’s side are averaging 7.0 shots on target per game across the Champions League as a whole this campaign and should be able to continue to cut through City with their quick and direct wide players.

Valverde has committed eight fouls across his nine Champions League appearances this season (0.94 per 90). He’s expected to line up as a right back again as he did in the first leg which should bring about an increase in his foul rate up against Omar Marmoush. Marmoush is averaging 2.43 fouls won per 90 across his three Premier League appearances for Manchester City this season. This promising fouls won rate stays high when looking at his games for Frankfurt in the Europa League this season (3.09 fouls won per 90). Valverde committed one foul in the first leg and committed three in Real Madrid’s 1-1 draw with Osasuna in the fixture sandwiched between these two legs. Valverde has committed at least one foul in four of his last five Champions League matches and his direct opponent here as well as the fact that right back isn’t his natural position suggests that this will continue here.

Both of these sides have been frustrated in the early stages of the Champions League campaign which is partly why they find themselves in this situation, this frustration has shown in Real Madrid’s card numbers this campaign. Carlo Ancelloti’s side have been shown 24 yellow cards across their nine games in the competition this season, the second highest total in the Champions League only behind Bologna (28). The first leg didn’t produce any cards for either side but the referee here should change that. Istvan Kovacs will be the man in the middle for this fixture, he’s averaging 5.00 cards per game this season. Real Madrid have been shown 2+ cards in six of their nine Champions League games this season, it’s likely that they’ll look to stifle Manchester City’s attempt to control the game with tactical fouls and an aggressive approach.

Real Madrid are heavy favourites to qualify for the next round of the Champions League but recent history suggests that this game will be tight and possibly be decided by just a one goal margin, just as the first leg was. This selection allows for Manchester City to win, the game to end in a draw or Manchester City to lose the game by a one goal margin. Pep Guardiola’s side have seen this selection land in four of their last five games across all competitions. The signing of Nico Gonzalez looks a crucial one, he allowed Manchester City to control the game against Newcastle in their most recent Premier League game which was arguably their best performance of the season, certainly their best performance of the last few months. This selection has landed in each of Real Madrid’s last five games across all competitions. Los Blancos boast the best attacking line in Europe but their backline can be exposed by a talented Manchester City attack. This scenario should result in a close fought encounter with City unlikely to be on the end of a hiding given recent results and injury issues for both sides.

Vinicius Jr was a constant threat in the first leg and got the assist for Bellingham’s late winner which has given Real Madrid a marginal advantage heading into this second leg. Manchester City don’t really have the personnel at right back to deal with Vincius Jr, Akanji started the first leg but really struggled to contain the Brazilian and Rico Lewis didn’t fare much better with Real Madrid constantly causing City issues down that side of the pitch. Vinicius Jr has registered nine goal contributions across his seven Champions League appearances this season. This combined total is more than any other Real Madrid player in the Champions League this campaign suggesting that Vinicius is Madrid’s main attacking threat in Europe and can once again cause Manchester City problems down his side of the pitch. Manchester City should be able to manage the transition a bit better with the presence of Nico Gonzalez in midfield but stopping Vinicius Jr may just be out of their control. He easily got the better of Rico Lewis in the second half of the first leg who is expected to be his opponent again here and the 24 year old should get more space as the game goes on with Manchester City needing a goal to get back into the tie.

Jude Bellingham has won 19 fouls across his nine Champions League appearances this season (2.29 per 90). This record is as a result of Bellingham’s bursting runs through central areas which are incredibly difficult to stop without bringing him to the ground. He was fouled once in the first leg but that should be set to rise here up against Nico Gonzalez. Gonzalez provided some much needed stability to Manchester City’s midfield in their 4-0 win over Newcastle, he effectively plugged the gap left by Rodri which meant that Manchester City were able to stop Eddie Howe’s side breaking on them. This will be more difficult against the quality of Real Madrid but Gonzalez’s foul numbers from his time in Liga Portugal earlier this season are promising (2.24 fouls committed per 90). Bellingham has won 2+ fouls in four of his last five Champions League matches, his battle with Nico Gonzalez in the middle of the park is one to keep an eye on. City were far too easy to cut through in the second leg and whilst it will take more than just Nico Gonzalez to manage this threat, his presence could be key in deciding this tie or at the very least in bringing Bellingham down on a few occasions.

Real Madrid’s backline still looks vulnerable, Manchester City drew two saves from Courtois in the first leg but could have made a lot more of the chances and control they had in moments at the Etihad. The right hand side of Real Madrid’s defence looks particularly weak, Valverde is expected to deputise at right back once again where he wasn’t challenged as often as Pep Guardiola would have liked with Tchouameni expected to line up beside him. Marmoush in particular can be dangerous in these areas, he was a constant threat in this position against Chelsea recently with his speed and is coming off the back of a hat trick against Newcastle. Manchester City are averaging 7.0 shots on target per game in the Champions League this season whilst Courtois is having to make 4.57 saves per game in Europe this campaign - a massive increase on his 1.95 saves per game in LaLiga this term. These numbers combined with the fact that Manchester City need a goal to get back in this game should see Courtois tested regularly as he has been in the Champions League this season.

Real Madrid’s frustration at times in the Champions League has been evident in their card numbers. They’ve received 3+ cards in five of their nine Champions League games this season which has contributed to Carlo Ancelloti’s side having collected the second highest number of cautions in the Champions League this campaign (24). The first leg should have produced a few cards but referee Clement Turpin was very conservative with his cards, his colleague in Istvan Kovacs may not be as patient in reaching for his pocket as shown by his 5.00 cards per game across his appointments in all competitions this season. The second leg is naturally expected to see an increase in the number of fouls and cards with what is on the line for these giants of European football. Real Madrid are the most likely to end up with the majority of these cautions when looking at their record in the Champions League this season.