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Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano Best Bet Preview

Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano Best Bet Preview

Friday 3 October, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

Both Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano will be frustrated with their disastrous starts to the season. The pair have managed five points apiece, and will be desperate for a win to put some distance between them and the relegation zone. 

The visitors haven’t managed a league victory since the opening gameweek, but have impressed in Europe. Meanwhile, Sociedad can blame a portion of their struggles on a demanding opening schedule.

Check out the latest Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano Betting Stats ahead of kick-off.

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Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano Best Bet

Fixtures for: Sunday 5th October

Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano

La Liga

17:30

Over 8.5 Corners

Despite poor performances, both Sociedad and Vallecano have been racking up the corners this season, and their matches rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, for corners produced. I think the probability of this one producing at least nine is substantially higher than the 69% chance that these odds would imply.

At home, Real Sociedad alone have averaged 9.33 corners per 90, surpassing the threshold required, without even needing the help of their opposition. Even when factoring in away fixtures, they still average a strong 7.29. Their matches as a whole have produced a league-high 11.86 corners per game, with five of their seven so far hitting at least 11 - comfortably above the mark required here.

The visitors, meanwhile, have accumulated corners at a rate of 6.86 per game, and have combined with their opponents for an average of 11.29. They’ve brought this selection home in 86% of their league matches, in addition to their midweek UECL showing, in which they racked up 12 alone.

In case you’re worried about sample size here, it’s also worth mentioning that last season, only Barcelona and Real Madrid’s matches produced more corners than Sociedad’s (3rd) and Rayo Vallecano’s (4th).

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📈 Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano Form & Stats

There are plenty of parallels to draw between Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano this season, with both sides enduring dismal starts to their respective campaigns, despite the expected goals suggesting significant misfortune.

Real Sociedad occupy 18th position, having mustered just five points across their seven games. They have had a tough run of fixtures, including clashes with Barcelona and Real Madrid, alongside Real Betis and Espanyol, who rank 6th and 7th, respectively. Still, this does little to justify a start as poor as this.

Sociedad recorded their first win of the season in Gameweek 6, beating Mallorca 1-0 at home. They created 2.76xG, but still were only able to convert only one opportunity, which is in keeping with their season-wide underperformance of 2.6 goals, making them La Liga’s 3rd most wasteful team.

Rayo Vallecano match Sociedad’s five points, with their only win of the season occurring in their season-opener, as they beat a 10-man Girona 3-1. Since then, Rayo Vallecano have lost all three of their matches on the road, scoring two goals and conceding seven. Also, for additional context, with seven games played, Girona occupy last position in La Liga and are yet to pick up a win.

With all that in mind, it might surprise you to learn that Rayo Vallecano rank amongst the league’s best for chance creation. Only five teams can top the 11.2xG they’ve created, but disastrous finishing has seen them find the back of the net just seven times, rendering them La Liga’s biggest underperformers in that respect by some distance.


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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