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Saint-Etienne v Rodez
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Kick Off: Friday 24th May at 19:30
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Competition: Ligue 2
Saint-Etienne host Rodez at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on Friday as the Ligue 1 play-offs continue.
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Rodez secured a dramatic win on penalties over Paris FC on Tuesday following a 2-2 draw. It was a match they seemed to be in control of as they went 2-1 up and their opponents went down to ten men early in the second half, but an equaliser in the 97th minute, beyond the advertised stoppage-time, sent the game to spot kicks.
Despite missing their first three penalties in that shoot-out, Rodez contrived to get the victory in the first round of sudden death.
How much that affair has taken out of the underdogs remains to be seen as they make the relatively short trip to Saint-Etienne for this one-legged affair against the team that finished third in Ligue 2.
Saint-Etienne v Rodez Best Bets
The great intangible here is how Rodez react after the midweek drama. Will it drain their mental reserves or make them feel invincible?
Saint-Etienne are, however, rightly favourites. They are a club geared up for exactly this kind of fixture and have received positive news on the injury front coming into this game, with a string of potential starters all cleared, not only for action, but to play the vast majority of the game.
At 1.70, Saint-Etienne can be backed with a degree of confidence.
📂 Saint-Etienne v Rodez Cheat Sheet
*Cheat Sheet pending…
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⚔️ Saint-Etienne v Rodez Head-to-Head
Rodez have a positive record against Saint-Etienne this season, having picked up four points against their play-off rivals across the two matches the clubs played.
The 2-1 win RAF enjoyed came way back in August but more instructive is the 1-1 draw they played out in Saint-Etienne just two weeks ago.
When looking at these results, it is worth bearing in mind that Saint-Etienne have been dramatically improved in the second half of the season.
On both occasions, Les Verts enjoyed a greater xG than their opponents, hitting 2.3 in their August loss before recording 2.1 in the tied game. Wastefulness, though, has been a common fault for Saint-Etienne.
The home team’s Irvin Cardona was the only player to attempt three or more shots in the last meeting, although replacement Nathanael Mbuku also had two shots in just 18 minutes. Cardona, who has 0.72 G+A per 90 since arriving in January and has been a major catalyst for improvement, is doubtful with a calf problem before this game.
There were also a couple of unlikely scorers in the form of Mickael Nade for the home side and Lorenzo Rajot for the guests.
In terms of fouls, Mathieu Cafaro (4) and Ibrahim Sissoko (3) were Saint-Etienne’s main criminals in the previous meeting, with Giovanni Haag committing three fouls for Rodez.
In both previous games, Saint-Etienne have seen more cards (five against two in total), while they turned around a 10-2 corner deficit in their first meeting to lead that particular statistic 8-6 at home.
📊 Saint-Etienne Form and Stats
Saint-Etienne were in storming form and looked like gaining automatic promotion to Ligue 1 but broke down when the pressure was on. They earned only two points in their last three games. Another three were required to join Auxerre in going up.
Inefficiency has been a major issue. In six of their last eight matches, they have scored fewer goals than their xG would suggest. In their final two games of the Ligue 2 season, they had 4.9 xG but scored only twice.
Top scorer Ibrahim Sissoko is the big threat when it comes to shooting. He has had two shots or more in two of the last three matches, including four on target in the 2-1 defeat to Quevilly last week.
Centre back Nade, meanwhile, is one to keep an eye on. He has had a shot on target in two of his last three games and scored previously against Rodez. This is a major departure from his overall form this season, which has seen him muster just 0.19 shots on target per 90.
Sainté have been winning lots of corners, meanwhile. Only once in their last eight games have they failed to take at least five, while on five occasions in this spell they have managed seven or more. They have also been giving up corners in large numbers – five of their last six games have seen their opponents win at least six.
Their foul numbers are also consistent. In their last four, they have given up exactly 13 fouls on three occasions and 12 once. This has not necessarily been reflected in the number of cards they have been shown. In two of these games, they got three cards and in the other two none at all.
Sissoko has given up at least three fouls in his last two appearances while Aimen Moueffek has committed four indiscretions in two of his previous three, albeit he also did not commit a single foul in the last home game.
📊 Rodez Form and Stats
Rodez’s strong form continued in midweek, even if they could not get the job done in 90 minutes against Paris FC.
They have lost only two of their last 16 matches, although they are notably weaker on the road. They won only six games away from home in the regular season, with 24 of their 60 points arriving from away matches.
Strikers Andreas Hountondji and Kilian Corredor justified their status as Rodez’s big threats in midweek as they managed three and two shots on target respectively. It is notable that while Corredor has more shots, his ability to hit the target is weaker than that of his strike partner. This has been a trend this season.
Dembo Sylla has suddenly become an offensive factor, meanwhile. Pushed further up the field on the right, half of his six shots since joining in January have come in the last three games. Both of his shots on target have arrived since then, too.
Centre-back Bradley Danger has scored in each of the last two games, but only one of his six strikes this season has not come from the penalty spot.
Giovanni Haag, meanwhile, kept it on brand for fouls in midweek, giving away two but winning three. He has been fouled three times in each of his last four outings but has equally committed three fouls in two of his last five games. With 10 yellow cards this season at a rate of 0.33 per 90 in the regular Ligue 2 season, he is also the player likeliest to trouble the referee.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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