💎 Gem Bet: Alvin Kamara Over 57.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.83 (Paddy Power)

With just one win between them, things need to change in this game between the Giants and Saints, but I’m going to continue betting against the Giants' ability to stop the run.

Alvin Kamara has been in the league since 2017, when the Saints took him in the third round out of Tennessee. His ability as a pass catcher helped him become Offensive Rookie of the Year and a five-time Pro Bowler, as he was one of the players who heralded in a new type of running back. However, this week I want to back his ability on the ground and more specifically back New Orleans to continue putting the ball in his hands, so I’m taking Over 57.5 rushing yards for the 30-year-old.

Kamara has covered a line of 57.5 rushing yards in two of four games so far. Two things are worth considering here. Firstly, the Giants are terrible against the run, and the only time he’s faced a similar, albeit marginally worse run defense, was against the Bills last week when he rushed for 70 yards. We also need to factor in that the team were losing all of these and then more likely to pass the ball, whereas this should be a closer game.

Volume isn’t an issue, and Kamara has averaged 16.25 carries per game and has over 50% of the entire team’s carries, something which should continue here, especially when you consider how diabolical the Giants have been against the run.

Through four games, the Giants have allowed an average of 153 yards per game on the ground, that’s the 4th-highest total in the NFL, and over the past few weeks they’ve been torched by running backs with Omarion Hampton (128 yards), Javonte Williams (97 yards) and Jacoby Crosskey-Merritt (82 yards) having big days against this defense.