When I’m looking at potential upsets in this Wild Card Round, this is one of the games that really stands out. I’m really not sold on this Eagles team. They’ve lost over a third of their games, and they’ve done so in a terrible division. They’re not the same team that won the Super Bowl last year. The offensive line is far worse, and they rank firmly middle of the pack, 16th of 32 in Expected Points Added.

The Niners rank 8th in that metric and have shown a noticeable improvement as the season has progressed. They’ve finished the season strongly, which has made their earlier struggles go slightly under the radar, but this is a team that missed a lot of key starters at points in the year. They’re not healthier and are dangerous. They’re 7-2 against the spread when they’re on the road, and I think they cover here, and potentially win the game outright.

Yes it’s the playoffs, and yes the Eagles defense are a solid outfit, but getting 19.5 points as the line for the 49ers to score in this game, feels like something I have to attack. The Niners have averaged 25.7 points per game this season, and the electric Christian McCaffrey is healthy.

Health is a big part of why I love the Niners in this game and it’s part of the reason they’ve improved as the season has progressed, with injuries decimating them a couple of months ago. Over the past month they’ve averaged 32.5 total points and this offense could explode in the playoffs.

I’m bullish on this game being a difficult one for the Eagles, and if they’re needing to get back into the game then they’re going to have to trust Jalen Hurts’ arm. With the Niners giving up an average of 232.4 passing yards per game, the eighth most in the NFL, it could be a successful way to try and beat them.

We’ve seen Hurts average 201.5 passing yards per game this season and while there’s always the risk that they rely upon the run, we should still see Hurts cover this lower alternate passing yard line of 175, a number he’s covered in five of his past six games.

It’s been another big year for McCaffrey, who has 17 touchdowns over 2,000 yards on both the ground and through the air. His receiving yard line stands at 45.5 and we have to hammer the Over, with the Niners always looking to find ways to get CMC into space in the open field.

He’s averaged 54.3 receiving yards per game this season and with the Eagles allowing the seventh most receiving yards to opposing running backs, a big 37.5 yards per game, this looks a good spot. With the ability of CMC and just how often the team look to target him, I’m confident we see the Over here.