The Bills have gone from one of the Super Bowl favourites, to only being marginal favourites against the Jaguars. This is in part down to their inconsistency, which has a seen a mixture of very good games and poor ones. The offense can be explosive, but we’ve also seen them get wrapped up by good defensive teams, and with the Jags D ranking sixth in DVOA, I think that happens again here.

The Jags have exploded down the second half of the season, with Liam Coen really turning the team around. They’ve won eight games in a row, and while the focus is on the excellent Trevor Lawrence, I think that the Jaguars defense can be the difference maker here. The Bills defense rank 20th of 32 team and as the old saying goes, defense wins championships.

No team in the NFL gave up more rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs than the Bills during the regular season, allowing 18 touchdowns in 17 games. In addition to that, they allowed three receiving touchdowns to the position, too.

Etienne has scored 13 touchdowns so far this season, with a fairly level split between rushing and receiving, and will be a huge problem for the Bills. He’s got a dangerous skillset and with the Bills weakness against the rush, expect him to find the endzone.

Cometh the man, cometh the hour. One thing we’ve seen consistently in recent years is Josh Allen putting the Bills on his back when it comes to crunch time in the season. He’s so dangerous with his legs and despite James Cook having a steller season, we’re going to see Josh Allen rushing at some point.

Allen now has 86 rushing touchdowns since arriving in the NFL in 2018. He’s already scored 14 times this season, his second highest regular season total, and now he’s ready for the postseason. Over the past three season we’ve seen the Bills play seven playoff games, and in that span we’ve seen Allen run the ball into the endzone on six occasions.

One area in which the Bills defense have done well this year is limiting passing yards each game. They’re not allowing huge numbers, but that’s in part down to their run defense being woeful. I think we’re going to see Trevor Lawrence put up another big Sunday and further his case to win Comeback Player of the Year.

We’ve seen Lawrence average 235.7 passing yards per game across the season and he’s now gone seven consecutive games with 200+ passing yards. The Jags hopes rest on Lawrence’s shoulders and we’ll see him pass a lot.