Alianza Petrolera v Rionegro Aguilas

Alianza Petrolera threw away a two-goal lead against Bucaramanga in their last match, as their wretched run against their regional rivals continued. It also meant a fifth consecutive draw for the Barrancabermeja side who have long been built upon sturdy foundations but lack the ability to kill off games. In fact, of their ten games played so far this season, seven have ended in draws. Away from home they have picked up important points in matches against defending champions Deportivo Cali and Medellín giants Atletico National, match3s in which they defended stoutly. At home, it’s a different story. While their troubles trying to break down teams is felt more acutely in front of their own fans, they are still undefeated at home in 2022.

Opponents Rionegro Aguilas are a bit all over the place. It looks like they are set for another season lost in mid-table. Far too inconsistent and without a clear playing style, former Colombia manager Leonel Alvarez has failed to get his team firing. Away from home they have been particularly frail. They have lost every game so far on their travels, except against a sloppy Equidad side early in the season when they scored straight from kick-off in the second half with their opponents still napping. Crucially, in every away game played in 2022 their xG has been lower than their opponents, quite often by a fairly comfortable margin. The best they can hope for here is a draw.

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Envigado v Equidad

Envigado are the strangest team in the league. They have scored almost double the goals that their xG suggests they should have clocked up, while in defence they have also rode their luck by conceding four goals fewer than the quality of chances of their opponents. Everything seems to point to a collapse in form at some point and a slide down the table from their current sixth position. But it would be wise to wait – until after this game at the very least.

Equidad have made lots of progress since their terrible start to the season which saw them rooted to the bottom of the league after four games. They have since lifted themselves to 12^th and, like Envigado, are one of the league’s most in-form teams. Yet they come into this game on the back of a gruelling Thursday night Copa Sudamericana game away in Barranquilla. That game meant a lot for a club Equidad’s size with qualification for the group stage providing them with a minimum of $900,000. Thus, the team’s focus was clearly on Thursday – a game which they lost – and there will most likely be a few heavy legs on display for this second away game in three days. It’s fair to expect Envigado to squeeze out one last drop of xG-defying form.

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