Ilves v HJK
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Saturday 23rd July- 12:00PM
Both teams come into this match in mixed form but are in desperate need of a win to get back on their respective quests – Ilves to remain in the hunt for Europe, HJK to retain their title.
Ilves conceded a late equaliser from long range at SJK last week, after being ahead twice. New signing Adam Larsson scoring on his debut was a boost while a typically audacious strike from captain Petteri Pennanen was a fine boost. But the defensive frailties remain, with only a clean sheet against bottom side HIFK in their last six games and centre half Mikael Almen misses this match after a red card last week. Ilves are still playing in their temporary ground at the Ratina stadium while Tammela is being rebuilt and they need big wins to make it feel more like home.
HJK lost their Champions League qualifier against Viktoria Plzen (1-2) in midweek but turned in their best performance in a long time. Bojan Radulovic again scored the goal but HJK dominated possession, had several shots and were impressive but gave away a soft penalty and some naivety told. With a second leg in Czechia to come, there will be rotation and likely a debut for defender Paulus Arajuuri. On-loan Malmo striker Malik Abubakari and Radulovic both played 90 minutes on Wednesday at least one will take a rest. The HJK fringe players have done well when called upon and will be needed for goals.
HJK have their eyes on a greater prize and may allow Ilves an opportunity to earn vital points.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
AC Oulu v IFK Mariehamn
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Saturday 23rd July- 3:00PM KO
Surprise package Oulu got back on track last week with a solid 0-2 win at Ilves – Niklas Jokelainen with both goals and Mosa Yaghoubi clearly getting his mojo back. After ending 2021 in the relegation play-off, they’re now into the second half of this season with a chance of reaching the European play-off instead. After the spectacular implosion of their 0-6 defeat to VPS, they’re still without the suspended Riku Selander and Miika Koskela but they’re a vibrant side going forward. At the back however, their defence is one of the worst in the division and rely on 40-year-old skipper Rafinha to bring the ball out of the back, often leaving gaps. Finland striker Rasmus Karjalainen is set to start feature on his return to the club.
Against HIFK last week, Mariehamn had one of the most dominant performances in recent Veikkausliiga history but could only score one of their 34 chances in a 1-1 draw – and the goal came from a penalty. They said farewell to midfielder Oskar Wiklof as he moves to Freiburg and otherwise have not made many noises in the transfer market. Eight points from twelve has moved them away from automatic relegation but the lack of goals has put pressure on one of the better defences. John Owoeri has three goals in four games and might find this defence more accommodating.
It’s unlikely that Mariehamn will get as many chances as they did before but their recent form suggests they’ll keep it tight against a cavalier side. I don’t see them having enough firepower to take advantage though and Oulu may well throw caution to the wind as usual.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
KuPS v HIFK
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Sunday 24th July – 2:00PM KO
Top against bottom this week in what promises to be an incredibly one-sided contest.
KuPS were frustrated in Thursday’s Conference League tie against Milsami by a team who sat back and hit them on the break. The big players Ikaunieks and Vayrynen again scored the goals but they conceded twice and have a tricky visit to Moldova to come. They had to contend without key defender Paulo Ricardo who will be out for weeks with a dislocated shoulder but it’s doubtful he’ll be missed too much against HIFK. New signing Valencic played the second half in midweek and will likely start, while they haven’t struggled scoring even when rotating their regular starters. The KuPS wide players should find plenty of space for crosses and long shots.
HIFK somehow resisted against Mariehamn last week, conceding an average of a shot every three minutes and yet only conceding an early penalty. A rare show of defiance from a side who have looked spineless and toothless in equal measure this season. Even the nous of Mixu Paatelainen has done little to turn the club around and they look bereft of inspiration. Captain Beto left the club on Thursday after receiving an extended ban in the defeat against Ilves so young Brazilian keeper Ramilson Almeida will keep the gloves again. Beto’s departure was a sad end to a high profile signing that was more bust than boom, while Spanish midfielder Pipe suddenly retired from football to take up teaching. Against the best team in Finland, soaking up pressure is a high risk strategy and there is little outlet.
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Prediction: KuPS -1, 1.67 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Lahti v SJK
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Sunday 24th July – 2:00PM KO
After two embarrassing away thrashings, Lahti return home firmly in danger of relegation and only kept from the automatic spot by HIFK. At Honka, they conceded three goals in the first twenty minutes and barely laid a glove on their opponents, while at KuPS two late red cards crowned a dismal display. Midfielder Eduards Emsis misses this match after four bookings in five games, while striker Chinedu Geoffrey is also suspended. Albion Ademi has left after his disappointing loan spell while Alan Henrique left in shame after threatening a referee. In all, a shambles who will be looking to get back in the race to avoid the drop by playing a distracted SJK side midway through a European tie.
SJK’s season may have hit a downward curve by the width of a post on Thursday. Jake Jervis placed his penalty against the woodwork against Lillestrom, who promptly went up the other end of the pitch and scored the only goal of their Conference League qualifier. If their league season is to rise up for a crack at next season’s continental play-off, they won’t have many better chances but they’ll have to fight for it. Their young players will be expected to step up in what will be a tough game. Valentin Gasc has been called up after four goals in ten matches for the Academy team and would be worth a chance here.
It’s a dogfight but if Lahti can tame their indiscipline, they should be able to compete. It’ll be feisty.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 2.0 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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