Tigre v Boca Juniors

In Group B of the Primera Division, there are three teams still in the race for two top four spots and Tigre are in pole position to take one of those spots. They are ahead of Aldosivi on goal difference and have a two point lead over Huracán going into this final game. On the other hand, they also have the most difficult opponent with Boca Juniors. Boca are already qualified as second in the group and don’t really have that much to play for. 

Despite that and their double duty with the Copa Libertadores as well, they brought their strongest team to Tigre. But as the need to win isn’t there, they’ll probably not start the majority of their best players. That isn’t the case for players like Sebastian Villa and Marcos Rojo, they are still suspended for the Copa Libertadores and so will surely start here when fit. 

Tigre are known to have an airtight defence this season. The 3-2 defeat at the hands of Vélez last week was a bit of a glitch, because before that game, Tigre had only conceded seven goals in 12 games. Even after this defeat, they are still the least conceding team in the group. This game is set up in a way that doesn’t bid well for goals. Boca won’t be in any hurry to score, whereas Tigre are probably through with a draw (only a Huracán victory with six goals difference would spoil that), so there is no chance Tigre will leave their defensive ranks as long as it stays 0-0. They haven’t been as good lately as earlier in the season, but I think they are capable of keeping this game at zero for a long time.

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Aldosivi v Arsenal de Sarandí

At the same time as Tigre, Aldosivi will be up to assure their qualification for the season ending play-offs for the title. On paper, it seems like Aldosivi are favourites by miles. They are in the top four and have a six-point lead over Arsenal, who are done after this game and have little to play for. But Aldosivi’s story this season is interesting. They went on winning five games in a row halfway the season, but in each of those five victories, the opponent’s xG was higher. 

The last games, the real Aldosivi were visible again, as they were completely outplayed at home vs Huracán. A week later they put up a good game against top of the league Estudiantes, but that wasn’t enough either, so they are still not qualified. Arsenal de Sarandí is probably one of the most steady teams this season, but two wins and three defeats, next to eight (!) draws, wasn’t enough to get close to qualification. They never lost by more than a goal, and Aldosivi are far from the level their points total make them out to be, so it is not a given the home team will come out victorious. 

Aldosivi have the best striker in the league with Martin Cauterruccio and see Leandro Maciel return to the side after injury, so they seem complete for this game. Arsenal had a few goal fests this season with the 3-3’s against Central Córdoba and Godoy Cruz and that could bid well for goals against Aldosivi, who qualify with a victory. With a draw they have a good chance as well, but a defeat makes them very dependent on Huracán. I don’t think they will go all out, but for Arsenal it is their last game of the season, so I don’t see them suddenly go defensive.

Independiente v Huracán

Huracán is the third contender for a play-off spot and their job is simple, only a victory gives them a chance of going through. They’d still depend on Aldosivi and Tigre, but that is all they can do. They face Independiente, who are out after a disappointing season, but aren’t going to give up that easily. Independiente are still in the Copa Sudamericana with a chance of going through, their last game was on Tuesday and their next game won’t be until May 20th, so doubt they’ll be interested in resting a lot of players. 

Huracán will be without Federico Fattori, who was sent off in last week’s late victory over Rosario Central. He has been a regular in midfield and hasn’t really missed much, but he is not one of Huracán most important players and Santiago Hezze, the young kid who was also a starter, but had been injured for a month, returned to the team last game and could give their midfield a boost. 

I think that Independiente’s motivation will be nowhere near what it usually is and Huracán, who are only interested in a victory could take advantage of that, that’s why I’d put my money on the away side taking the three points here.

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