Hull City v QPR
Both teams made changes to their management team around the same time earlier this season. QPR’s was enforced upon them by Michael Beale’s departure, but Hull’s decision to bring in Liam Rosenior to take over from Shota Arveladze does seem to have had the desired effect.
However, Neil Critchley hasn’t had a positive start at QPR and, given that Wigan have pulled the trigger on their new manager already, Critchley could really use a positive result here.
The bookmakers have priced this up close enough in price that on a neutral ground QPR would be considered narrow favourites. Given recent performances from both teams, I am not sure that this is an opinion I agree with.
Since the World Cup break Hull have played three home matches, all ending 1-1. In two of those they have completely dominated the xG battle against Sunderland and Blackpool, but not come out with the result their play merited. Indeed, their net xG (xG created – xG against) across the seven Championship matches since the break ranks Hull in sixth place. Over the same period QPR are 16th.
QPR have made moves to improve their forward line with the signing of Jamal Lowe who went on to score on debut last week. However, there were also signs of rustiness from Lowe and the frailties of the defence were on display as control was ceded to Swansea last week and an inevitable equalizer materialised.
Given the form shown in the respective team performances over the last few weeks it is worth taking the Tigers to put in a performance that will give them a greater xG than QPR, then we are betting on them being able to take those chances. Removing the draw as a possibility also rules out the potential fourth 1-1 in a row and adds that extra protection to the bet.
Milton Keynes Dons v Exeter City
MK Dons host Exeter City on Saturday in aiming to consolidate their position outside the relegation zone in the third tier.
There has been a small improvement from the hosts since replacing Liam Manning with Mark Jackson, but enough yet to suggest that they are going to pull clear of trouble.
The Grecians have been a brilliant addition to the division this season, are the eighth highest scorers and so far have been able to keep hold of their best attacking players in the January transfer window.
Exeter have brought in Jokull Andresson on emergency loan with Jamal Blackman injured, although the former Chelsea has been far from convincing this season and therefore Andresson may offer an upgrade in the short term.
The Dons have won just two of 12 in the league, with both of those victories coming over rock bottom Forest Green Rovers and they have the worst home record in the league, picking up just nine points from 14 outings at Stadium MK.
The Dons’ business this month has not been the short that grows confidence in survival, where City have strengthened their attack with Joe White on loan from Newcastle United.
Shrewsbury Town v Forest Green Rovers
Shrewsbury Town have won three on the bounce in League One by an aggregate score of 10-1.
The Green have sacked Ian Burchnall this week and have replaced him with Everton legend Duncan Ferguson.
It will be Ferguson’s first permanent role in senior management, and as a character he will be fascinating to observe in their relegation battle.
FGR have picked up just nine points from 14 away trips this season, and have only taken one point from their last seven league matches.
The visitors have been busy in the transfer market this month, prioritising younger players with potential resale value as always, but after Connor Wickham departed at the end of his contract it is hard to argue they are in a stronger position.
They only lost 1-0 at Bolton Wanderers in midweek, but the Trotters went down to ten just before the half hour, demonstrating the struggles of the Green in the final third as they were unable to breach the weakened Wanderers resistance.
I am not a believer in new manager bounces and, with that in mind, am comfortable continuing to oppose FGR until Ferguson’s impact suggests otherwise.
Cheltenham Town v Port Vale
Wade Elliott has made a conscious effort to play more attacking football at Cheltenham Town in the last month or so, but those efforts have been greeted with four straight defeats in the third tier.
The Robins are four points above the relegation zone as things stand, but with clubs beneath them strengthening in the market where they have struggled to, that cushion could be a fairly brittle one.
Elliott may look to revert back to the defensive football they were playing in the first half of the season, which seemed to be working well enough to keep their heads above water.
Vale have also suffered a drop-off in the last month or so, losing four of six, with their only league wins coming over lowly FGR and Morecambe.
Darrell Clarke could be content with a point at Cheltenham to stop the rot, and though goals have been more common in recent fixtures for both sides, their strengths lie in their rearguard and results have suffered a dip in the absence of that solidity.
Cheltenham unders has been a successful stance for us this season, and I am happy to continue with that bet here.
Morecambe v Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers head to Morecambe on Saturday at an enticing odds against price, with a preparation advantage on the Shrimps, who lost out 4-0 at Ipswich Town on Tuesday evening.
The Gas have not played in two weeks and therefore Joey Barton should have them raring to go at the Mazuma, Rovers have been one of the best attacking teams in the division this season, and travelling to an often leaky Shrimps side will likely see Barton throw caution to the wind.
Rovers’ front pairing of Aaron Collins and Josh Coburn will be a lot for the Shrimps to handle, as they look to climb out of the relegation zone.
Scott Sinclair has been a very shrewd free agent signing this season for the Gas, and it would be a surprise not to see them get on the scoresheet multiple times.
Kieran Phillips being recalled by Huddersfield Town will be a blow for the Shrimps, denting what has already been a fairly lacklustre attacking contingent this season.
Derek Adams and Barton could provide some touchline fireworks, but the visitors are clearly the better side in this encounter.
Rochdale v Carlisle United
Rochdale are in poor form as they face another tough test this weekend at home to promotion chasing Carlisle United.
The hosts go into the game on the back of a damaging 2-0 away loss to fellow strugglers Hartlepool United and that result leaves them joint-bottom of League Two with Gillingham and two points from safety. Speaking afterwards, their boss Jim Bentley said his side needs ‘reinforcements’ before the end of the transfer window which suggests he is not happy with the squad he has at his disposal at the moment. To make matters worse, the Dale will be without defenders Ethan Ebanks-Landell and Sam Graham after they were both sent off last time out and that leaves them very short of options at the back which isn’t ideal.
Rochdale are struggling near the bottom and have won just five out of their opening 27 matches this season, losing 17 of them, and their confidence will be low. Their form this winter has been dire, and they have won just once in their last 10 league outings which has seen them sink into the relegation zone. The National League beckons for them unless they can turn their fortunes around, but they aren’t likely to get anything on Saturday.
Carlisle are flying and won 3-1 at home to Hartlepool on Tuesday night after two goals by in-form striker Kristian Dennis and the other from defender Morgan Feeney. Manager Paul Simpson was delighted with another three points and said he was ‘satisfied’ with the performance and result. On the injury front, the Cumbrians remain without forward Ryan Edmondson but are not missing him at all at the moment with Dennis scoring goals and the likes of John-Kymani Gordon, Joe Garner and Omari Patrick providing useful alternative options and depth at the top end of the pitch.
They are only now a point off the automatic promotion places which shows what a top team they have been this term and they could rise into the top three if they beat lowly Rochdale which is a great incentive. It is hard to bet against them at the moment as they have lost just once in their last five and are dreaming of League One football. Carlisle have now also overtaken Leyton Orient as the top scorers in the league having fired in 42 goals in 26 games.
AFC Wimbledon v Stockport County
AFC Wimbledon have been struggling for goals over recent weeks and have a difficult game this weekend against play-off hopefuls Stockport County.
The Dons have endured a frustrating season to far and sit down in 13th place which is poor considering they were aiming for promotion. They have drawn their last two matches 0-0 against Bradford City and Crewe Alexandra respectively. Speaking after their last outing, boss Johnnie Jackson said it was a ‘missed’ opportunity and he has been dealt a few blows so far this month.
Midfielder Paris Maghoma and striker Kyle Hudlin were recalled from their loans by Brentford and Huddersfield Town respectively, whilst key attacking midfielder Ayoub Assal is leaving for a new challenge in Qatar at Al-Wakrah. As a result, Wimbledon have brought in striker Saikou Janneh from Cambridge United, but he has only scored once in 17 appearances in all competitions so far this term so is hardly prolific. The London club are in a bit of a rut right now and have won just once in their last seven games which is a worry as their chances of a top seven finish continue to slip away. Their lack of a cutting edge up top is also a worry and they are there for the taking for opponents at the moment.
Stockport are a tough nut to crack and will fancy their chances of winning on Saturday to boost their hopes of making the play-offs. They drew 0-0 with Bradford City on Tuesday and manager Dave Challinor admitted he was ‘frustrated’ that they didn’t win but was pleased that they weren’t beaten. Midfielder Antoni Sarcevic missed out in that one due to injury and if he remains sidelined for the trip down to London, it wouldn’t be too much of an issue as his side have a host of top-quality options in his position such as Will Collar, Ryan Croasdale, and Callum Camps.
The Hatters will be in confident mood following their recent set of results and they have lost just twice in their last 12 league games. They made a slow start to this campaign following their promotion from the National League as they adapted to life in the league above, but Challinor’s men are starting to hit some momentum now and are a team that opponents won’t want to play. In addition, they have made some shrewd attacking additions in the January transfer window such as Jack Stretton from Derby County and Isaac Olaofe from Millwall which makes them even stronger going forward.
Crawley Town v Salford City
Crawley Town are in a mess as they prepare to face promotion hopefuls Salford City this weekend.
The Red Devils have seen their last three games postponed due to freezing temperatures and haven’t played since 2nd January meaning it could take them a while to get back up to speed. They have a new manager at the helm in Scott Lindsay after he left fellow League Two side Swindon Town to take over and he has admitted himself it will be a ‘challenge’. The Sussex club are 21st in the table and are only two points above the drop zone after just five wins from 24 games.
Fans are getting angry at the WAGMI United ownership of the club, and they have decided to sell first-team striker Tom Nicholls to relegation rivals Gillingham in the January transfer window in a baffling move. In addition, goalkeepers Ellery Balcombe and David Robson have also been recalled by their parent clubs Brentford and Hull City respectively which leaves them short of options between the sticks.
Crawley’s form has been poor, and they have won just twice in their last 12 games in all competitions which has seen them sink down the table so they will not be hopeful of a result on Saturday.
Salford are aiming to go up to League One and are 5th in the table after a decent campaign so far, just four points off the top three. They drew 1-1 away at Colchester United on Tuesday night with in-form attacker Conor McAleny on the scoresheet and boss Neil Wood said he was ‘happy’ to get something but will be hoping to build on it by getting three points.
On the injury front, Leeds United loanee Jack Jenkins is currently sidelined but other midfield options such as Ryan Watson, Elliot Watt and Matty Lund have proven to be perfectly capable options in the midfield of the park. McAleny is on fire and will be looking to carry on his goal scoring exploits against struggling Crawley having scored seven goals in 13 outings now.
Salford are still on course for promotion and are proving to be a difficult team to beat under Wood in this campaign, having lost just once in their last seven now. Their draw at Colchester wasn’t ideal but again proved they are finding ways to pick up results as they look get a win next.
*Bet link only appears when accessing from mobile.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
Haven’t got a Betfair account? You’re in luck…
Sign up to Betfair and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £20 on the 5/1 League One and League Two Five Star Best Bets Accumulator. Here are the two possible outcomes:
✅
You win £123 cash if it wins
🔄
Or you get your £20 stake back as cash