Exeter City v Plymouth Argyle
Exeter City will be relishing the opportunity to dent Plymouth Argyle’s League One automatic promotion push in the Devon derby.
The Grecians have had an excellent first season since promotion from League Two and can play with some freedom under Gary Caldwell, sitting pretty in mid table.
Jevani Brown (14 goals and nine assists) has been out since late January for off-pitch reasons, while Cheick Diabate is a long term absentee and Kevin McDonald is doubtful.
Jay Stansfield (six goals and eight assists) has missed the last two but is available again alongside Southampton loanee Kegs Chauke.
For the visitors, Michael Cooper and James Bolton are out, while there are doubts around the availability of Bali Mumba, Ben Waine, Brendan Galloway, Niall Ennis and Conor Grant.
Argyle have conceded seven goals in their last three but have found the net in six of eight in the league. Exeter have scored in nine of ten but also conceded in seven of eight.
The reverse fixture was a breathless 4-2 Argyle win and a similar helter skelter match could play out, with the Grecians able to throw everything at the Pilgrims with very little to lose.
Barnet v Wrexham
I’m backing Wrexham to take another giant step towards a long-awaited promotion – and break the National League record points tally in the process.
Phil Parkinson’s side already hold the records for most victories and most goals in a league campaign, helped further by their hugely important 3-2 victory against fellow title contenders Notts County. Striker Paul Mullin scored one and assisted two in that game while goalkeeper Ben Foster’s last-minute penalty save became the headline story. Those two are supported by a more experienced cast with captain Luke Young returning to the fold and Ollie Palmer and Tom O’Connor also returning. Manager and players alike referenced the wake-up call at FC Halifax Town on Good Friday and they won’t be resting on their laurels here.
Barnet are dangerous opposition, currently sitting fifth in the table but in danger of losing their play-off spot after four wins and six losses in their last 14 matches. Their indifferent form is one reason to back against them here but this is also their seventh match in three weeks and the run has taken its toll with Dean Brennan losing first-choice starters Jerome Okimo, Dale Gorman, Harry Smith and Nicke Kabamba to injury while a couple of others are being managed after their own injuries. The Bees gaffer has been forced to chop and change his side regularly of late as a result and there will likely be more of that here.
Brennan has spoken openly about his side lacking energy and legs and if Wrexham play their game, those legs will feel even heavier.
Everton v Fulham
A huge game for Everton takes place on Saturday afternoon as the hosts will be looking to take advantage of a Fulham side in poor form. The Toffees were beaten comfortably at Old Trafford last weekend but do look a much more solid outfit under the stewardship of Sean Dyche. This particular result can be excused and I’m fully expecting a strong home showing here. Their opponents, Fulham, are on a dreadful run at the moment and a one-nil loss at home to West Ham was the latest of their numerous defeats. I feel Marco Silva will be happy to have the points for survival in the bag already at this stage, as I only see them dropping further down the table!
Even though the home side sit in 17th place in the standings, their recent home form isn’t too shabby. They’ve picked up maximum points in three of their last five on home soil and facing the worst form team in the league, this is an ideal opportunity to pounce. There’s every reason to believe this will be a tight, dogged affair but with so much on the line for Everton, I really fancy them to get the job done! Some of their recent wins have come against a couple of the better sides in the league too, both Brentford and Arsenal have fallen to defeat at Goodison Park. Clean sheets have been achieved in three of the last five home matches, something certainly worth noting in relation to our selection. One way I see the home side finding a way through is via a set piece situation. The towering centre halves of James Tarkowski and Michael Keane are in line for starts and the pair have both notched since February. Quite interestingly the pair have racked up 12 shots between them in the last five matches, clearly displaying their attacking threat, as well as being solid defensively.
One of the main reasons I’m backing the Toffees to come out on top though is down to the torrid run Fulham are on. They’ve now lost five games on the spin in all competitions and remain without their main attacking weapon, Alexsandar Mitrovic who is still suspended. The Cottagers have looked a shade of themselves since the beginning of March and I see no sudden turn in the formbook here. On top of the previously mentioned loss to West Ham, they were also turned over down on the south coast to struggling Bournemouth which is another reason I’m keen to oppose them.
A stat I found interesting was the severe dip in Fulhams expected goals (xG). Only on one occasion in their last six games have we seen over 1.0xG reached. Of course, this is only a performance metric but it does go to show how very few scoring opportunities are being created in the attacking third!
This a real hunch of mine for the weekend and there’s method in the madness! Fulham seems to be on a real downwards spiral, so I’m taking an Everton win as they hope to move clear of the relegation zone.
Reading v Burnley
How horrible a last five games could this be for Reading? Paul Ince’s tenure at the club is at an end after miserable form, coupled with a six-point deduction that currently leaves the Royals a point inside the relegation zone. The question now is how do Reading recover with interim Noel Hunt at the helm? First team regulars are likely to be crucial, such as centre-backs Tom Holmes and Naby Sarr, Newcastle United loan midfielder Jeff Hendrick, wing-backs Andy Yiadom and Nesta Guinness-Walker, and the powerful presence of Andy Carroll up top alongside Lucas João. Hunt might possess with Ince’s previously-used 3-5-2 formation for this final run-in, but only time will be able to tell how he sets his team up to end an eight-game winless run as soon as possible.
Burnley meanwhile have promotion secured with time to spare, but there are still two things to aspire for before the season is up. The first is the incredibly likely title win, something that could be wrapped up this weekend should Burnley win and Sheffield United feel to beat Cardiff City. Finish the season with wins in all of their last six games, and they will beat the Championship record of 106 points that was set by Reading back in 2005-06. There can be no doubt that Vincent Kompany’s side have the quality to run that record close. Southampton loanee Nathan Tella grabbed two assists over Easter to bring his output to 17 goals and 5 assists from 37 Championship appearances. Substitute Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson was the hero with a brace from the bench against Sheffield United on Monday, experienced striker Ashley Barnes and Welsh right-back Connor Roberts got the goals against Middlesbrough on Good Friday. All three are prime examples of the players who have superbly transitioned from Sean Dyche’s stewardship to Vincent Kompany’s. Irish midfielder Josh Cullen has been a star of the season with his intelligent passing from midfield. Any of Lyle Foster, Manuel Benson, Vitinho or Michael Obafemi could be among those who feature in the frontline this weekend.
A team in deep trouble against a team going to make second tier history, Burnley are heavily fancied for the win, and should really be aiming to claim the victory at a canter. The Clarets are the division’s top-scoring side with 78 goals from 40 matches, scoring two or more goals in five of their last seven league fixtures alone. Time for Burnley to show the gulf that is there between themselves and the bottom of the Championship.
QPR v Coventry City
When Queens Park Rangers found themselves 2-0 down to West Bromwich Albion inside just 13 minutes on Friday, many would have been ready to see Gareth Ainsworth record a seventh defeat in eight matches as QPR manager. Ainsworth has to take confidence in his team’s recovery to earn a 2-2 draw, and the target is to make sure that a real slump does not cost the R’s their Championship status with five games to go. A 3-5-2 has produced little positives since the new manager came in at the end of February, but does on paper possess some good quality personnel. Ilias Chair is a man capable of individual moments of quality from off the left or in attacking midfield. Strikers Lyndon Dykes and Chris Martin netted the goals in Easter Monday’s comeback draw.
Three points off the play-offs with five games to go, Coventry City’s season is not over yet. The start of the season, where the Sky Blues sat bottom of the table with a substantial amount of games in hand, has been left far behind and Mark Robins’ side still need to believe that they could crash the top six before the end of the campaign. In Swedish striker Viktor Gyökeres, Coventry have one of the most accomplished strikers outside of the Premier League, 27 goal involvements for the 24-year-old this season.
Strike partner Matt Godden had a hand in both goals in Monday’s 2-2 draw with Watford, normally preferred to Tyler Walker at the top of a 3-5-2. Easter saw two consecutive starts at wing-back for Manchester City loanee Josh Wilson-Esbrand and Arsenal loanee Brooke Norton-Cuffy, dutchman Gustavo Hamer still a crucial cog in midfield alongside Josh Eccles and Ben Sheaf. The trio of Callum Doyle, Kyle McFadzean and Luke McNally have been a consistent presence in front of goalkeeper Ben Wilson.
Coventry can afford as few slip ups as possible in their late season pursuit of play-offs. This weekend presents a favourable test against a Queens Park Rangers side who have slid down the table as the Sky Blues have risen the opposite way. Gyökeres and Hamer will likely be key again, and if they are on it, Coventry could pick up another big three points.
Watford v Bristol City
Watford are drifting towards a damp squib of a season with a complete mess seeming to envelope the whole club. From a start to a season with promises of stability and a long term plan under a new coaching team led by Rob Edwards, through an early sacking and quick replacement by a totally different manager in Slaven Bilic, to more mediocre performances and another change of manager in Chris Wilder, who rumours were abound that he would be replaced by the end of the season, it is a total write-off of a season for the Hornets.
Underneath all of the chaos is a group of very talented, but seemingly disparate, footballers. Joao Pedro, Ismaila Sarr, Imran Louza, Keinan Davis, Hamza Choudhury etc. all individually are capable of high-level performances at this level, but for whatever reason, they have not been able to gel effectively. The ups and downs in levels of form has been puzzling and has left lots of fans and, seemingly, the managers, at a loss as to how to find the correct formula to get Watford playing the way they ‘should’ be capable of.
Into this chaos come Bristol City. A club who is familiar with the concept of chaos, but have been able to avoid it for most of the season by sticking with Nigel Pearson and their policy of using their academy to bolster the first team. That strategy is looking very smart at the moment with the likes of Sam Bell, Tommy Conway, and George Tanner getting a lot of minutes this season and surely preparing to be stronger again next season. On top of that, Alex Scott is fit again to be in contention for this match, and though it seems likely that Scott could go to the Premier League in the summer, Pearson has said that it will take a very big bid in order for that to come off. Scott is under contract to 2025 so the power is with the Robins in that situation, and that money could be very handy for the club in setting up their improvement.
In terms of why supporting Bristol City seems like a good bet in this match, other than the difference in feeling between the clubs, is that The Robins are in good form. They went to Stoke and emerged with three points when they were big outsiders to do so, they were 2-0 up, deservedly, against Middlesbrough in their last match. They have lost only three away matches in their last ten, and won the xG difference in seven of the ten as well. That is really good away form in the Championship.
Meanwhile, Watford have won only three of their last ten at home, and one in their last four. We are getting a close to even money price about Bristol City emerging from Vicarage Road with something and that is worth supporting in my opinion.
Millwall v Preston North End
Gary Rowett’s Millwall are in the midst of something of a wobble. Fans at The Den will no doubt be behind the team here but the nerves are showing in the fanbase as another fade towards the end of the season looks possible, and whereas in the past these fades have come from a position just outside of the playoffs, Millwall have been odds-on to feature in the top six for a couple of weeks so this could really hurt Lions fans.
Goalscoring has become the issue for Millwall. The reliance on Tom Bradshaw and Zian Flemming was totally fine for most of the season but they have been kept quiet by their opponents of late, and the variety of threat hasn’t been there to supply the goals outside of those central forward players.
Unfortunately for Millwall they now welcome one of the more solid units in the league to The Den. Preston have been in very decent form and arrive just outside of the playoffs and hungry to get in. In complete contrast to Millwall as well, the Lilywhites possess one of the league’s most in-form and clinical forwards at the moment in Everton loanee Tom Cannon. Though the current run is unsustainable, it doesn’t matter to Preston as long as he is in the midst of that quality finishing spree to fire them into a position to challenge.
What Ryan Lowe can try to control though is the shape of the team and the three central defenders system is continuing to work well for North End. Only twice in their last ten away fixtures in the Championship have Preston conceded more than 1xG to their opponents and that was to West Brom and Middlesbrough, two of the more potent home teams in the Championship. They have also avoided defeat in seven of those ten matches.
Meanwhile, Millwall have won only one of their last five at home, and three in ten. Only twice in that period have they generated more than 1.5xG.
This is likely to be a low scoring encounter, but the line on Under 2.5 goals is very short. Instead I would prefer to be with Preston here, but also giving ourselves the draw as a winning option, which keeps the 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines onside, which I feel are lively players in this match.
Sunderland v Birmingham City
There is the faintest of hopes for Sunderland to get into the top six still burning, and as long as that spark is there then the Wearside faithful will no doubt be cheering for it and pushing their team onwards.
There can be no doubt though, the Black Cats have to take maximum points from this match in order to keep their hopes realistic. On paper Sunderland’s home form, both recent and season-long, is poor. Backing them at an odds-on price here doesn’t appeal as much as the potential for goals in a match such as this.
Last week this column used the data to predict that the Sunderland vs Hull match in the early evening kick-off would be a low-scoring encounter. This was based off an away side coming to visit the Stadium of Light who are known as a solid defensive outfit that keeps matches tight, and a Sunderland side that doesn’t really have a natural #9 in it. How wrong that was.
Sunderland have shown now that they have developed a way of coping without a central striker whilst remaining dangerous. They have a top 8 xG generated since the beginning of February and that is through counter-attacking football, movement, energy and multiple threats. Jack Clarke terrorised the Hull City right-back on that evening and with him in good form, alongside creative talent in Joe Gelhardt, Amad Diallo, and Alex Pritchard, then Tony Mowbray’s team is still capable of generating enough chances to score goals.
As the game goes on, even if it is tight, the urgency will be coming from the stands and from the home players to try and get the three points. That could open the door to Birmingham at the other end. Whilst Blues do not quite have the same high chance creation, and indeed, their away performances show that they usually do keep it tight at both ends, they do have ways of hurting the opposition with Lukas Jutkiewicz back in favour and with young energy of George Hall, Tahith Chong and Hannibal running off him.
The quotes for over 2.5 goals in this match are over even money, which I can see the case for in a blind statistics based bet. However, using the evidence of the eye and using the circumstances of the match there seems to be some value in the over 1.5 price.
Rotherham v Luton Town
The layers have looked at this match and been totally uninspired by the prospect of getting much entertainment out of it.
In one sense I can understand that perspective. Rotherham totally stifled their opposition last time out and Luton are as solid as they come defensively, especially away from home.
However, the goals expectancy is that low that over 1.5 goals becomes a possible option for backers and there are a few reasons that I think the offer is too good to ignore here.
Firstly, both teams have genuine goalscoring options. Rotherham brought in Jordan Hugill in January and he has provided an excellent focal point to the attack. He has also found a little bit of form of late in front of goal. More than this though is the unit of Tarique Fosu on the left and Cheo Ogbene on the right, prompted by Conor Coventry in the middle, with the energy of either Ollie Rathbone, when fit, or Hakeem Odoffin. It makes Rotherham a potentially good attacking outfit, and indeed, nine out of their last ten home matches has seen over 1.5 goals.
Luton have one of the most dominant strike partnerships in the Championship in Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris. Morris is one of the top scorers in the league and has demonstrated that he is dangerous in many areas and can score all different types of goals. Rob Edwards also has options off the bench with the likes of Cauley Woodrow if things need changing. They are an obvious set piece threat as well, but then, so are Rotherham.
With so many potential routes to goal here, despite Luton being so strong defensively. I like the chances of getting two goals out of the 90 minutes here. Seven of Luton’s last ten away matches have seen over 1.5 goals, there has just been a tightening up of late. It wouldn’t take too much of a push for it to swing back the other way.
Ipswich Town v Charlton Athletic
In the reverse fixture, Ipswich took a 4-2 lead at The Valley in the 94th minute but managed to draw 4-4 with George Dobson finding the net in the 99th.
The Addicks will be without Jack Payne, who was sent off on Monday, while Lucas Ness, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Chuks Aneke are out for the season. Mandela Egbo and Todd Kane have returned of late to add to Dean Holden’s defensive options.
Miles Leaburn missed out altogether on Monday, and the striker has significantly raised Charlton’s performance level in dipping in and out of the side due to injury this term.
The Tractor Boys were very dominant in their 1-1 draw at Cheltenham Town last time out, winning the shot count 23-7, having won their previous eight and kept a clean sheet in nine before the trip to Whaddon Road. Individual errors cost them again but they remain title favourites.
The Addicks have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine and could be pulled all over the place by the dynamic Ipswich attack, Ryan Inniss is a weak link outside of his aerial ability.
Ipswich have scored two or more goals in six of seven and all of their last seven at Portman Road in the league.
Forest Green Rovers v Barnsley
Forest Green Rovers will be relegated if they do not beat Barnsley on Saturday.
FGR’s surprise 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday appears to have been just a one-off and to this point, it does not seem like Duncan Ferguson was an upgrade on Ian Burchnall, who has joined the coaching staff at Anderlecht.
The Tykes are just five points off of the top two in League One with six games to go and have been scintillating at times in the last few months.
Barnsley are weakened by a suspension to Nicky Cadden, but should be able to assert their dominance and send FGR back to League Two. The reverse fixture was 2-0 to Barnsley but they were utterly dominant, winning the shot count 17-4 and the expected goals (xG) battle 2.65-0.10.
FGR have lost six of their last seven, four of those defeats were by two goals, and the Tykes have found the net in all of their last eight. Michael Duff’s men are averaging 1.98 xGF over their last five matches and should offer the Green some relief this weekend in confirmation of their fate.
Accrington Stanley v Fleetwood Town
Accrington Stanley have six games left to save themselves in the third tier, sitting two points behind Oxford United above the dotted line.
Fleetwood Town are the visitors this weekend off the back of a zero-point haul over Easter.
The Cod Army are weakened by the absences of Danny Andrew and Carlos Mendes Gomes (nine goals and four assists), while they have very little on the line with five games remaining, 12 points better off than Accy.
Joe Pritchard, Jay Rich-Baghuelou and Seamus Conneely remain sidelined for the hosts, but they have been enormously boosted by the returns of Ethan Hamilton, Liam Coyle and Tommy Leigh in recent weeks.
Fleetwood are definitely opposable at the prices, having conceded six goals in their last three matches while unsustainably overperforming in the attacking third. Scott Brown’s side have scored eight goals in their last five games from just 4.78 xGF, 0.96 xGF per game over that period, and a regression to the mean in terms of their finishing could be on the cards, especially with their motivation set to take a hit with nothing to play for.
Stanley are worth a lean on their home patch at this stage of the season, as we did successfully in their 3-0 victory over Port Vale last time out at the Crown Ground.
Stevenage v AFC Wimbledon
Stevenage will fancy their chances of returning to winning ways at home to an AFC Wimbledon side who have nothing to play for now.
Boro remain in with a strong chance of gaining automatic promotion from League Two this season and have a game in-hand on teams above them Northampton Town, Stockport County and Carlisle United. Steve Evans’ side drew 1-1 away at Hartlepool United last time out with striker Danny Rose on the scoresheet and their boss said his side were ‘totally dominant’ against a Pools side who are in decent form so if they can play like that again this weekend they should have no problems getting the three points.
On the selection front, their continuing injury problems in the goalkeeping department has seen them swoop for Hull City stopper Timothee Lo-Tutala on an emergency loan and the former Tottenham Hotspur man had an impressive debut for the Hertfordshire outfit. Stevenage are in the play-offs for a reason and have a host of attacking options like Rose, Luke Norris and Jordan Roberts who can hurt their opponents. They have only lost once in their last seven games which shows they are still a tough team to beat and Evans will get them fired up for Saturday as they seek a big win.
Wimbledon’s campaign is over and they can’t go up or down this term which may make it hard for their players to motivate themselves. They were 2-1 up against Salford City on Easter Monday after goals by midfielder Kasey McAteer and attacker Ali Al-Hamadi but ended up losing 3-2 in stoppage time. Their manager Johnnie Jackson was furious with his team’s collapse and said afterwards that it was ‘incomprehensible’ from his players.
In terms of injury news, midfielder Ethan Chislett, who has been a key player for the London club this season, sat out against the Ammies and it remains to be seen whether he is fit for their next game with Alex Woodyard stepping in for him. Prior to their disappointing loss to Salford, the Dons bottled a 2-0 lead against relegation threatened Harrogate Town late on to draw 2-2 which shows they are having trouble at the back at the moment. Wimbledon have won just once in their last 15 outings and their confidence will be at rock bottom as they head to Broadhall Way for a tricky test against a serious promotion contender.
Salford City v Colchester United
Salford City have burst back into the promotion picture in League Two and will have their sights firmly set on beating relegation threatened Colchester United.
The Ammies head into their upcoming clash in good spirits after their dramatic 3-2 away win at AFC Wimbledon on Easter Monday courtesy of a last-gasp brace by striker Callum Hendry in stoppage time, with winger Conor McAleny scoring their other one. They have risen back into the play-offs above Mansfield Town after that victory and their boss Neil Wood said his players deserved ‘credit’ for the way they turned the game around and that also shows their strong mentality.
Midfielder Ryan Watson remains out of action but the North West club have plenty of options in his position such as Matty Lund, Elliot Watt and Stevie Mallan which proves the strength in depth they have in their squad. Salford score goals for fun and are the joint-top scorers in the division with Mansfield having fired 64 goals in their 41 league games so far which is even more than table toppers Leyton Orient. They have quality throughout their ranks and if they can just tighten things up a bit in defence, they should be able to secure themselves a top seven finish.
Colchester have endured a tough campaign and find themselves down in 20th place, just four points above the drop with five matches left to play. They won 4-0 at home to Crewe Alexandra last time out to boost their survival hopes after goals by midfielder Noah Chilvers, winger Samson Tovide and a brace by striker John Akinde and despite that big victory, they will still be in for a tough afternoon at the Peninsula Stadium next up.
Their manager Ben Garner said he was ‘really pleased’ with the result but he has been dealt an injury blow with first choice goalkeeper Kieran O’Hara missing the game with a back injury. 21-year-old Arsenal loanee Tom Smith took his place between the sticks and Salford’s prolific offensive options will look to test him properly. Colchester’s win over Crewe was their first in nine matches so they have been struggling to pick up results recently, hence their lowly league position, and they still have plenty of weaknesses that their next opponents will be eager to exploit on their own patch.
Newport County v Hartlepool United
Hartlepool United are in decent form as they look to continue their momentum this weekend against a mediocre Newport County side.
The hosts go into the game on the back of their 4-0 defeat away at Stockport County last time out and that result suggests their players are already on the beach. Their manager Graham Coughlan said after their heavy loss at Edgeley Park that his side ‘didn’t play well’ and he ‘wasn’t happy’ with the display. Centre-back James Clarke was missing through injury and it remains to be seen whether he will be fit for their upcoming clash, with his replacement in the heart of defence Declan Drysdale not as experienced which showed against the Hatters.
Newport are sat down in 18th place and it has been a season to forget for the South Wales outfit, despite them sitting comfortably above the drop zone. Their aim before a ball was kicked this term was to compete at the top end of the table but they have fallen way short which suggests changes are needed at the club. They have been inconsistent recently, winning two games out of their last nine, and another disappointing afternoon beckons based on their recent showings.
Hartlepool are a team reborn under John Askey as they look to avoid slipping into the National League and they are currently a point above the relegation zone. They are unbeaten in their eight games since their new boss took over, winning two and drawing six, which shows how tough they are to play against at the moment as they eye survival. The North East outfit drew 1-1 with promotion contenders Stevenage on Monday with midfielder Nicky Featherstone scoring the equaliser in the second-half and first-team coach Anthony Sweeney took on media duties afterwards, admitting they were ‘disappointed’ they didn’t pick up all three points which shows how far they have come over recent weeks.
Hartlepool were without defender Jamie Sterry against Boro and will have to assess him ahead of their next fixture, with Dan Dodds doing a solid job in his place. The Pools are on a roll under Askey and are a side who nobody will fancy playing at the moment as they chase down another positive result at Rodney Parade to keep their form going.
Gillingham v Stockport County
Gillingham are in for a difficult afternoon as they welcome high-flying Stockport County to Priestfield on Saturday as the Hatters eye their next victims.
The Gills have clawed their way to safety this season under Neil Harris and are nearly mathematically safe as they sit eight points above the drop with just five games left to play. They were beaten 2-1 away at Northampton Town in their last outing, with attacker Aiden O’Brien on the scoresheet, and their manager said he expects a ‘little bit more’ from his players.
On the selection front, the Kent club will be hoping that centre-back Conor Masterson can return to the squad and he will be looking to get back into the starting XI ahead of the likes of Will Wright and Max Ehmer. Gillingham are almost there in terms of securing their Football League status and can afford to take their foot off the gas a tiny bit now as they prepare for their next few games. They have seriously struggled for goals this term and are the lowest scorers in League Two having found the net just 29 times in their 41 games so far which is even less than the current bottom two Crawley Town and Rochdale. Harris’ side are still inconsistent and although there is no doubt that they have turned a corner, they will be in for a very tough game against their upcoming opponents.
Stockport will take some stopping now as they look to gain back-to-back promotions to League One. The current National League champions have carried their momentum from last year into this campaign and have risen into the top three now with five matches left following their 4-0 win over Newport County last time out courtesy of goals by defender Kyle Knoyle, attacker Jack Stretton and a brace by striker Kyle Wootton.
Their manager Dave Challinor was delighted with the performance and heaped praise on Wootton especially, saying he is playing at a very ‘high level’ right now which will be worrying for Gillingham. On the selection front, right-back Macauley Southam-Hales continues to recover from injury but they don’t miss him at all with Knoyle performing well in his position. Stockport are flying and are unbeaten in their last eight games and have lost only once in their last 15. In addition, they now have the second best defensive record in the division and only table toppers Leyton Orient have conceded less as the Hatters look to win again at Priestfield.
Rochdale v Bradford City
Rochdale still require the miracle of all miracles to survive relegation, but seven points from three games under interim manager Jim McNulty has reinstalled hope into a previously doomed football club. McNulty has gone back to basics with a simple 4-4-2 where the midfield pair of Liam Kelly and Ethan Brierley are key. The latter in particular still remains a prospect at just 19 years old. Danny Lloyd, recently being deployed on the right, is a player capable of key individual moments of quality and has goals in all three of Rochdale’s most recent wins.
The 4-4-2 utilises the versatile Jimmy Keohane and Burnley loanee Owen Dodgson at right-back and left-back respectively, whilst club icon Ian Henderson leads the line alongside lively forward Abraham Odoh. The 38-year-old was a regular goal contributor when Rochdale kept their heads above water in League One for several years, and will be keen to add to his eight goals this season to keep the Dale up against all odds. Henderson provided both of the goals when Rochdale won 2-1 at Bradford City back on the 10th January.
The promotion race below League Two leaders Leyton Orient is incredibly tight, just eight points separating second place Northampton Town and eighth place Mansfield Town. For sixth place, Bradford City, the gap to the top three is currently just two points with six crucial games left to play. Mark Hughes’ side will take confidence from their excellent away record, their PPG of 1.74 being the joint best in the division alongside Leyton Orient.
In 24-goal man Andy Cook, Bradford also possess a striker in red hot form that is riding high at the top of the fourth tier goalscoring charts. Cook is averaging a league goal every 117 minutes this season, and whilst the Bantams have looked at times dependent on him, returning forwards are making key contributions to wins. Wingers Harry Chapman and Scott Banks were both on the scoresheet in Monday’s 3-1 home win over Sutton United. Jamie Walker is an influential part of the attacking threat whilst playing in attacking midfield in a possession-based 4-2-3-1.
A couple of weeks ago, this would have been seen as a walkover for Bradford City. Rochdale have had some fight reinstalled since dismissing Jim Bentley as manager. Bradford should still have the quality to pull through, with Andy Cook targeting goal 25 this season in League Two, but the Bantams will need to be wary of a rejuvenated Rochdale side that have failed to score on just occasions at Spotland since the beginning of December.
Aldershot United v Scunthorpe United
The takeover at Scunthorpe United was met with excitement, helped by the arrival of an almost entirely new squad and manager Jimmy Dean. It was supposed to give them the tools they needed to avoid a devastating relegation. It hasn’t worked out that way and their season has died a death.
They have failed to score in their last five matches, pummelled by Notts County, running out of steam against York City and Torquay United before pitiful displays against Gateshead and Oldham Athletic confirmed their relegation. Dean has publicly slated the culture of the club and made 11 changes to his XI during the two Easter Weekend fixtures with players returning from the cold, loanees being discarded and the ex-Peterborough Sports gaffer seemingly preparing for next season now.
They travel to The EBB Stadium this weekend to take on an Aldershot Town under new management themselves and still in big need of points. Tommy Widdrington’s first outings over Easter ended in 1-1 and 3-3 draws but most importantly, he was able to field a consistent XI and shape, something his predecessor struggled with. Also, both of his strikers scored. Widdrington is a manager that focuses on getting the basics right first and foremost and a week on the training ground, along with a renewed confidence in the starting XI, should enhance his side’s ability to perform here.
Chesterfield v Eastleigh
I’m backing Chesterfield to make the most of tired legs and make it back-to-back victories.
The Spireites were stunned by York City on Good Friday, succumbing to a 3-1 defeat in which the visitors scored three efforts from outside of the area, but responded positively with a 1-0 victory at Dagenham and Redbridge in a typically dominant display. Paul Cook’s side have won the xG battle in each of their last seven matches, running just shy of 1xGD over that period. They have won six of their last nine and kept five clean sheets in their last six matches.
They take on an Eastleigh side that will be playing their fourth match in eight days and they haven’t performed well in the previous three, conceding ten goals in the previous three, and all against bottom half sides. Manager Lee Bradbury has openly admitted to being unable to field his strongest XI during this period and there will be further changes this weekend. Furthermore, Eastleigh’s record on the road doesn’t make for positive reading – they have lost 12 of their 21 away matches, including three of their last four, and have lost five of six away matches against the top eight.
Southend United v Dagenham & Redbridge
This week’s bore fest should take place at Roots Hall where Southend United and Dagenham and Redbridge face up.
Both sides ought to be on the beach given the play-offs are out of reach and there’s no danger of relegation. However, there remains a lot to play for given the unique situation both clubs face.
Southend United are playing for pride after a run of seven consecutive defeats ended their hopes for the season. They have responded positively, picking up an impressive point at Woking after victories against Yeovil Town and Maidstone United. Kevin Maher and his team have gone back to basics in a bid to turn their form around. They have seen under 2.5 goals scored in eight of their last ten matches with no side scoring more than two goals during that period. They continue to have issues in attack where striker Jake Hyde is injured again and creator Jack Bridge is being eased back in after injury.
Dagenham and Redbridge have seen under 2.5 goals scored in four of Ben Strevens’ first six matches. Strevens has spoken about wanting his side to play on the front foot but his spell at Eastleigh proved that he likes to have a solid base to build upon, and that appears to be something he’s aiming for in East London. His team’s worst three performances have come after short periods between matches so having most of this week on the training ground will help solidify his team and get his ideas across on the pitch.
Manchester City v Leicester City
The title charge continues for Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium this weekend as Leicester City make the daunting trip north. The Citizens have been in frightening form of late and have now won their last nine games in all competitions. Just a few days ago, we saw them completely dismantle one of the European heavyweights in Bayern Munich. City thrashed the Germans by three goals to nil and much more of the same is expected here against lowly Leicester. In stark comparison, the Foxes were beaten last time out at home to Bournemouth, losing by a goal to nil in another under par performance.
This is a real strong fancy of mine over the weekend and there’s reason to be expectant. City are now a shade odds on to win the Premier League with the bookmakers and they could well pinch top spot come May from Arsenal. On current form, it’s hard to look beyond anything but a comfortable home win. Pep Guardiola has his side absolutely firing on all cylinders at this moment in time and this ideal fixture provides a perfect opportunity to pick up three more points. Of course, a winning margin by two or more goals in required here for City, however, it’s something that’s been happening regularly. This handicap has been covered by the hosts in eight of their previous nine matches, in both home and away fixtures.
The goals have also been flying in consistently all season and if we take the sample size of the last ten home matches for the hosts, well, they’re averaging an incredible 3.7 GpG. With this in mind I’m keen to take the -1 handicap.
Erling Haaland has been the star of the show having now scored 30 goals in just 29 games, bearing in mind he’s missed a few to injury. The Norwegian is set for another start and he’s bound to have another big impact. There’s always a chance that the pack may be shuffled slightly with the 2nd leg of the Champions League to be played next Wednesday. So, there’s the possibility the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Julian Alvarez could come in from the start. The duo are more than capable replacements if selected and it by no means hampers my selections hope of a win. One other player I’d like to mention is Jack Grealish, the England international has been in magnificent form of late out on the wing. He’s managed four goal contributions in his last three games, again proving his worth in the side.
A quick word on the Foxes, they’ve just appointed Dean Smith as their new manager this week. In the meantime, Brendan Rogers departed after a four year spell at the club. Smith has it all to do in the coming weeks, as survival is now the target for the once Champions of the PL.
Leicester’s form has been woeful and it’s seven defeats in their last eight in the league. They’ve also been misfiring in front of goal having scored in just 50% of these losses. In addition to this, they’re averaging just 0.5 GpG themselves on this barron run, not what you want when heading to the Etihad.
I find it hard to envisage a sudden change in form, even with the new manager bounce. One obvious threat is James Maddison but he has just one goal contribution in his last eight games. The star man has struggled, much like his team and there’s not much more to say about this other than to take a Man City -1 handicap!
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