Curzon Ashton v AFC Telford United (National League North)

It’s been a pretty remarkable week for AFC Telford United.  

Ex-Warrington Town manager Paul Cardle finally picked up his first win as Bucks manager when they thrashed Darlington 5-0 and that was followed by a 3-0 win against Bradford Park Avenue. It was the perfect way to end an 11-game winless run. Telford are still yet to win on the road, however. In fact, they have picked up just three points from a possible 33, including none from their five games against sides 12^th or higher in the league.  

Their hopes of ending that run aren’t helped by playing against another side with a new manager finding his feet in his new role. Adam Lakeland won his first game in charge at Curzon Ashton but couldn’t catch a break after, his side drawing five and losing three of their next eight – all three defeats being by the odd goal. Their form has changed this year, The Nash winning three of their four league matches in 2022, including an impressive 1-0 victory away at AFC Fylde last time out. Notably, their form against the sides below them in the table has been strong – Curzon have won seven of their ten matches against sides 13^th or below in the league table and four of their six home matches against the same opposition.  

Telford will come into this game with an air of confidence but Curzon have started grinding out victories again and I fancy they’ll do that here.

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Gloucester City v Brackley Town (National League North)

Picking up a point away at Kidderminster Harriers is no easy feat and it said plenty about the resolve of Lee Mansell’s Gloucester City side that they were able to do so, ending a three-match losing run in the process.  

Despite the lack of victories, The Tigers have certainly been stronger defensively since the 39-year-old took the role of interim manager until the end of the season – they have conceded six goals in their last nine matches, They have managed four clean sheets in that time and that has been the biggest reason for their climb away from the foot of the table. The issue they have is scoring goals – they have scored five in the same period. 

Tight margins aren’t something that particularly bother Brackley Town. It’s their modus operandi. Four of their last five matches have seen two or less goals scored and it’s not just a recent thing – 67% of their matches have seen less than three goals scored and the same percentage of matches have ended with at least one side failing to score. Brackley Town are second in the league, so clearly it works for them.  

There are two possible bets for this one. Brackley Town don’t tend to lose matches away from home – their two defeats were against league leaders Gateshead and local rivals Kettering Town so selecting them for a Draw No Bet (1.5) may be sensible. But with both sides a fan of not conceding goals and neither being particularly prolific, I’m going to go for under 2.5 goals.  

Kettering Town v Leamington (National League North)

It was never going to be easy taking over from Paul Cox at Kettering Town.  

Cox had done a fantastic job with The Poppies, stabilising them at National League North level despite a less than attractive style of football – perhaps required given the state of the pitch at Latimer Park. Ian Culverhouse has managed things well so far, a harsh defeat in his opening fixture against Kidderminster Harriers followed up by victories at Darlington and at home against Southport, ending the Merseyside club’s long-unbeaten run in the process. They have done it without Callum Powell too, who recently joined Southend United. His immediate replacement, Decarrey Sheriff, has stepped up to the plate with all three of their goals – he was almost shipped out on loan prior to Cox’s departure.  

Leamington had hoped victory against Blyth Spartans would put them back on the right track after a run of ten games without victory but a 3-0 defeat at Aggborough on Tuesday left them back at square one. It’s been an awkward run for Paul Holleran’s side, largely facing the sides in the play-off positions or those at the bottom of the table desperate to change their fortunes. Their away form has been dismal all season, however, with just one win from 12 matches.  

The hosts are in fine fettle despite their change of manager while the visitors can’t quite find that winning formula. Home win.  

Chippenham Town v Concord Rangers (National League South)

Concord Rangers saw one of the more remarkable continuing statistics in football end on their last trip away from Canvey Island.  

Their 0-0 draw with Dartford meant that the Beach Boys’ run of scoring and conceding in every fixture had ended. However, Dartford home matches tend not to involve goals and it is one of only two occasions in Concord’s last eight, the other being a 0-0 draw against a Billericay Town side that were in the middle of a run of conceding just seven goals in eight games, that Concord have seen less than three goals scored. Their away games are averaging 3.75 goals per game with 83% seeing three or more goals scored.  

Chippenham Town love goals too, especially at home. They have seen an average of 3.92 goals scored per game with 75% of matches at Hardenhuish Park ending with at least three goals scored, including three of their last four. They have also seen three or more goals scored in each of their last five matches, the outliers being a derby game at the end of the triple Christmas header (0-2) and games against Tonbridge Angels and Chelmsford City, the two sides with the lowest goals per game total in the division.  

Chippenham Town score and concede a lot of goals at home, Concord Rangers score and concede a lot of goals away. It should be a goal fest.  

Dorking Wanderers v Tonbridge Angels (National League South)

Dorking Wanderers are simply unstoppable at the moment. 

Marc White’s side are top of the National League South. They have won each of their last nine league matches, scoring at least twice in all but one of those games – Tuesday’s 1-0 victory against previously unbeaten-away-from-home Oxford City. They have won each of their last nine league matches at home. They are averaging 3.09 scored per game at home. They have won from behind, they have beat teams early on, they have won games by tight margins and big margins. Dorking are passing every test and showing no signs of letting up. 

It means that making a case for Tonbridge Angels isn’t easy, even if they aren’t in particularly poor form themselves. The Kent outfit have won two, drawn three and lost three of their league eight games. Only one has been separated by more than one goal, a 2-0 away defeat against high-flying Maidstone United, and their last eight games have come against sides in the top 12 of the division so their form hasn’t been too bad given their lowly league position. Their away form isn’t too bad either with three wins and two draws from ten matches. They have actually accrued more points against sides in the top half of the table than the bottom. 

Tonbridge Angels are clearly a decent enough team but they are playing Dorking Wanderers at Meadowbank where the league leaders are simply phenomenal. 

Dulwich Hamlet v Chelmsford City (National League South)

It’s been an exciting week for Chelmsford City. First, Danny Imray returned to the club from Crystal Palace. Then Tom Blackwell, who scored his first three goals for the club over Christmas, signed a new contract. Then after Ediuno Vaz signed up, ex-Premier League striker and current top scorer Simeon Jackson put pen to paper to stay with the Essex club.  

Robbie Simpson will be hoping that good news brings about another positive result as his side slowly haul themselves away from the sole relegation spot. They have lost just one of their last nine matches, including a three-game winning run post-Christmas, and have been pretty strong defensively, conceding just five goals in those eight matches. However, they have conceded in three of their last four away matches and it has been pretty consistent throughout the season – The Clarets have scored in 80% and conceded in 90% of their away matches.  

They come up against a Dulwich Hamlet side that love goals. Saturday’s hosts have conceded in each of their last eleven league matches and scored in nine of their last ten. As for their recent home record, Dulwich have scored and conceded in six of their last seven matches – it’s little surprise they are averaging 3.33 goals per game at Champion Hill. 

The over 2.5 goals is a bit risky with Chelmsford slowly showing themselves to be stronger defensively, but they are leaky away from home and with Dulwich also having issues defensively, I’m backing both teams to score.  

Maidstone United v Bath City (National League South)

Maidstone United received a huge boost this week with the news that manager Hakan Hayrettin has signed a new deal that keeps him at the club until 2023. 

The 51-year-old has overseen a strong first half to the season at Maidstone United, their six-game blip in October and November the only blot on an otherwise very strong campaign – they have 13 and drawn four outside of that mid-season loss of form. The Stones have won each of their last five home matches, conceding just once and beating promotion rivals Dartford and Ebbsfleet United 4-0. Those five victories have come as part of an ongoing 11-match unbeaten run that has propelled them into second place – they are now six points behind Dorking Wanderers but with a game in hand.  

It doesn’t feel as though Bath City will be the side to end that winning run at the Gallagher Stadium. They have lost four of their last five matches, conceding 12 goals in that time and the outlier was a derby match on Boxing Day. Jerry Gill’s side drew their first league match this season on Saturday and it was the first time his team had not recorded back-to-back losses but the draw came at home against second from bottom Braintree Town. Notably, Bath have lost all five matches against top five opposition, conceding at least three in every match.  

The hosts should make it six home wins on the bounce here and should do so comfortably.  

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