Brackley Town v Bradford Park Avenue (National League North)

Bradford Park Avenue have shown real improvement of late but few get the better of Brackley Town at St.James’ Park.  

The Saints currently sit second in the league table, six points behind leaders Gateshead with two games in hand. Key to that is their formidable record on home turf. Kevin Wilkin’s side have won nine, drawn two and lost one of their 12 home matches. That sole defeat came on September 14^th and their record since reads seven wins, two draws, zero defeats and two goals conceded. Their record against sides 10^th or lower is strong too with Brackley winning 11 of their 15 matches against such opposition.  

It’s tough for Mark Bower’s Bradford Park Avenue side who have won four of their last six, including thumping 3-0 and 5-0 against York City and Alfreton Town. However, The Green Army have won just two of their 13 away matches and their record against sides in the top seven reads two draws and five defeats.  

It’s a curious statistic that both Brackley Town and Bradford Park Avenue are 14 positions apart in the table but have scored the same amount of goals (34). The difference is that Saturday’s hosts have conceded just 17 goals and have kept 17 clean sheets in the league season. Few would bet against another on Saturday on the way to a home victory.  

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Farsley Celtic v Kidderminster Harriers (National League North)

Kidderminster Harriers keep winning football matches and they are now right on the coattails of Gateshead and Brackley Town at the top of the National League North league table.  

Since defeat against Brackley Town on October 9^th, Russell Penn’s Kidderminster Harriers have won 14 of their 18 matches, losing just once, which has left them one point behind Brackley Town and seven points behind Gateshead with two games in hand. While their record at Aggborough has come in for praise, their away record is similarly imperious. They have won six of their last nine, losing only one, and have won three of the last four by 1-0 scorelines. Another key feature of their impressive campaign so far has been their record against the sides below them in the league table, winning 16 of 19 matches against sides 8^th or lower in the league table.  

It’s probably not the game Russ Wilcox was hoping for as he bids to turn the fortunes around of his new club. The Celts currently sit bottom of the league table, have the second worst home record in the division (0.01 points per game worse off than Gloucester City) and are winless in 11 matches. They lost against a Gloucester City side with just one victory on the road all season in their last fixture at The Citadel.  

It would be a huge turn up for the books if Kidderminster Harriers don’t pick up another three points on Saturday.  

Hereford v Southport (National League North)

The shock result in midweek came at The Pure Stadium as Southport, previously unbeaten at home, lost 3-2 against Blyth Spartans, who had previously picked up just four points in 12 league matches away from home.  

The result has helped frame Southport’s recent form and promotion challenge in a different light. The Merseyside outfit had recovered from back-to-back defeats to go three without loss, a decent return having seen their lengthy unbeaten run abruptly ended a few weeks back. Now it is one victory in six matches, and that came against second bottom AFC Telford United. It was one of four victories away from home this season – all four of those wins have come against sides 18^th or lower in the table.  

Hereford come into this one having struggled defensively over the last week, conceding eight goals in three matches against Kidderminster Harriers, Chester and Curzon Ashton. However, they are back on home turf this weekend and they have turned Edgar Street into something of a fortress recently. Josh Gowling’s side have won eight of their last ten matches, only slipping up against league leaders Gateshead and fellow play-off chasers Curzon Ashton. They have only conceded six goals in those ten matches, showing an ability to get ahead in games and see them out.  

The hosts are strong at home and the visitors vulnerable away. I’m backing Hereford to win.

Leamington v Chester (National League North) 

A game between two sides who love playing at home and hate playing away.  

Leamington’s season dropped off in dramatic fashion after a 2-0 win against York City in November, going on a 10-game winless run before beating Blyth Spartans 1-0. While they remain winless on the road since early November, they have won each of their last two home fixtures, the other win ending promotion-chasing Chorley’s long unbeaten run. The Brakes have won seven of their 14 home matches this season and of their four defeats, only one has come against a side below 9^th in the league table.  

Chester, meanwhile, have picked up just five points on the road from a possible 39. Four of those points came in matches against AFC Telford United and Farsley Celtic, the two sides currently occupying the relegation places. It isn’t a record that has improved since Steve Watson replaced Anthony Johnson and Bernard Morley in the dugout at Chester – The Seals have lost their last four away matches, conceding 11 goals in that time. They have also lost six of their last eight matches overall, including each of their last three.  

Leamington haven’t completely turned their fortunes around but they have found solace at the New Windmill Ground and should get a result on Saturday.  

AFC Telford United v Gateshead (National League North)

Despite the form of both Kidderminster Harriers and Brackley Town, Gateshead remain top of the National League North and for all the talk of games in hand, it’s the Heed that have the points at this stage.  

It’s been a good time to follow Gateshead. They have seen a number of key players sign new deals, including Cedwyn Scott, Macauley Langstaff and Greg Olley. They have also won eight of their last ten matches and won seven of those by more than one goal. Going into this one, Gateshead have picked up 27 points in 14 away matches and since 30^th October, they have a 7-1-1 record away from home, losing only to local rivals Blyth Spartans and drawing away at a resurgent York City. They have averaged 2.44 goals scored per game in that time.  

Home form will be key if Telford are to avoid relegation with all four of their wins this season coming at New Bucks Head. However, they remain winless against sides in the top half of the table since match day two, have lost all four games played against the top three sides and have only managed to score in four of 11 matches against sides in the top nine. They are now winless in their last five and managed to lose a two-goal lead in midweek at Kettering Town.  

Telford have faced tough opposition in their last four and conceded nine goals in those games. Gateshead are as ruthless as they come in this division and it should be another tough afternoon for Paul Carden’s side.  

Ebbsfleet United v Eastbourne Borough (National League South)

Ebbsfleet United’s promotion hopes have taken quite a beating in recent weeks, losing five of their last seven matches, including a rare home defeat.  

Their first three defeats all came away from home and against top opposition so winning their two home games without conceding meant there were reasons to be positive. However, a 2-1 home loss against Slough Town, a rare home defeat, and 4-2 loss at Havant and Waterlooville, previously winless in nine, has raised concerns about their ability to claw themselves back into the title race. Eastbourne Borough have been similarly inconsistent of late, winning three, drawing three and losing two of their last eight but they now sit just four points behind Ebbsfleet in the league table.  

Eastbourne have been good for goals this season. Both teams have scored in six of their last eight matches and 70% of their matches overall. They have scored in all but one of their away matches, conceded in 10 of 14 and both teams have scored in four of the last five. Ebbsfleet have scored in all but one of their home matches but are usually pretty tight defensively on home turf, keeping seven clean sheets in 13 matches. However, they have conceded in five of their seven matches they have played against sides 13^th or higher and in 14 of 17 matches against the same opposition overall.  

Both sides are also averaging over three goals per game total at home and away respectively. Neither side is in great form currently and it could be an open game.  

Hungerford Town v Concord Rangers (National League South)

Neither Hungerford Town or Concord Rangers have been very consistent this season.  

Saturday’s hosts have won each of their last four home matches but had previously won two in nine on home turf and their improvement in Berkshire has come at the cost of their away form dropping off a cliff – they have lost four and drawn one of their last five having previously won 6 in 8 away from home. Concord Rangers, meanwhile, sit 15^th in the league table, five positions lower than Hungerford, but have won just one of their last nine matches, drawing the other two. There has also been little in the way of patterns of results – both sides have won and lost against the best and worst of the division.  

Their inconsistencies probably have a lot to do with their ability to score goals but struggle to keep them out at the other end. Hungerford Town have seen over 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six home matches and in six of their last eight matches overall. Concord Rangers, meanwhile, have seen at least three goals scored in five of their last eight matches and two of their last four on the road. Both teams have scored in 86% of Concord Rangers’ away matches and 62% of Hungerford Town home matches. 

There are just eight clean sheets between these two sides, who have now played 52 matches between them. It promises goals.

Slough Town v Havant and Waterlooville (National League South)

Predicting the outcome of a match between Slough Town and Havant and Waterlooville would be naïve.  

Slough Town have won their last two but were winless in the six previous fixtures. Their home record reads an okay six wins, four draws and four losses and this is a side that have beaten Dorking Wanderers and lost against Billericay Town. Havant and Waterlooville, meanwhile, won their first game in ten last weekend against Ebbsfleet United. They have won six of their 13 away matches and like Slough, it appears that they can beat or lose against any side on any given day.  

What both sides tend to promise is goals. Slough Town are great for it. Only three of their last 23 matches have finished without both sides scoring a goal. That includes each of their last four and 13 of their last 14 matches. Havant and Waterlooville, meanwhile, have found their shooting boots again with new strikers Manny Duku and Stefan Payne finding the net last time out. Paul Doswell’s side have scored in six of their last eight matches, including four last weekend, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of those matches.  

It seems nailed on that both teams will score in this one.  

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