Stjørdals-Blink v Skeid
The home side have lost their last eight consecutive league games, but I think the value is with them in the 1X double chance market. The main reason for that is because Skeid travel here knowing this match is completely meaningless for them, but next week they will be facing some very important relegation playoff matches against teams from the third tier of Norwegian football. Stjørdals-Blink have had a miserable season both on and off the field. They did well to keep the club in sheer existence during the middle of the summer because of a financial crisis which nearly saw them go bankrupt. It was inevitable that several players would leave the club and coupled with an inability to provide quality recruitment it is no surprise to see them already relegated. Blinks have lost a massive 21 out of 29 league games and suffered defeat in 12 out of 14 home games. I think on the last day of the season they would love to at least end on a high and give their own fans something to cheer. Despite their league position, I expect them to retain some form of self-respect and motivation.
Skeid have done well to lift themselves into 14th place. For the majority of the season, they along with Stjørdals-Blink and Grorud were all locked together down at the bottom of the table but a strong run of only 3 defeats in 12 games has seen the Oslo based club claim the relegation playoff spot. They are only four points behind Åsane, and if the season was a bit longer then they would have surely fancied their chances of automatic survival. Skeid are one of the more in-form teams in the OBOS Ligaen right now but have two huge matches on the horizon. Their relegation playoff match will be against either Arendal or Ull/Kisa and the first leg will be on Wednesday 2nd November at home. There is no doubt that they will be looking ahead to that fixture with the potential for some squad rotation. I would be surprised if anyone playing here will be particularly focused.
There’s no doubt it’s a risk betting on such a poor team like Stjørdals-Blink but at odds of 1.44 I think they can pick up at least a draw. This is a very favourable situation vs a team who really just want this match over and done with before playing their two relegation playoff matches. It would not surprise me at all if Stjørdals-Blink ended a miserable year with a victory.
Brann v KFUM Oslo
There is a chance that this fixture could be in the Eliteserien next season. Brann have already confirmed their promotion and league title after a fabulous campaign, whilst KFUM Oslo will definitely be in the playoffs. There is plenty of motivation for both teams heading into the final league game. If Brann win, they will set a new points record for the OBOS Ligaen. Their incredible year has seen them win 25 out of 29 league games and suffer just one defeat. They were close to an ‘invincible’ campaign, but Mjøndalen beat them 3-1 a few rounds ago. KFUM Oslo meanwhile, still mathematically have a chance of automatic promotion, although it would take an improbable 16 goal swing for them to oust Stabaek from that spot. KFUM are realistically fighting to finish in the best possible position which would help their seeding for the upcoming playoff matches. Third place would guarantee them home advantage until the two legged affair vs an Eliteserien club.
The three players who have all been nominated for player of the season in the OBOS Ligaen will be on the field in this fixture. Sivert Heltne Nilsen and Mathias Rasmussen both feature for Brann on this list, which is no surprise because both are of Eliteserien quality. Nilsen will be one of the top DMIDs in the top flight next year and Rasmussen has weighed in with 15 goals from a wide area. For KFUM, Robin Rasch has been nominated for player of the year. The astute tactician has scored 6 goals and supplied 7 assists. He is one of the smartest players in the OBOS. When looking at bets for this game it is difficult to argue against a lot of goals being scored. Brann will be lifting the league trophy after this match and a big crowd is expected. They will want to go out on a high and add to their remarkable 91 goals scored this year. Brann could cover a 3.5 goal line on their own, but KFUM are usually good for a goal as well. They have netted 60 times this season, but also conceded 44 times. Both sides are ranked in the top four for xG, with Brann averaging a massive 2.72 xG per 90 mins.
A total of 25 out of 29 KFUM league matches this season have ended with over 2.5 goals. They also have the most over 3.5 goal games this year of any team (15/29). I think the value is there again to take over 3.5 goals in a Brann match. The same strategy worked last week away to Fredrikstad, a match they won 3-1 and I suspect this will be another high scoring clash. There is no reason to suggest either team will suddenly go into their shell and a Brann victory something like 3-1 or 4-1 is probably the most likely outcome.
Grorud v Åsane
This should be a typical end of season game between two poor teams which will likely contain goals. In most leagues worldwide, there are always some fixtures in the final round which end in something randomly wild like a 3-3 draw. This game is definitely one of those candidates. Grorud are already relegated and have endured a miserable campaign picking up just 17 points. It took them until round 22 just to win a game of football, although they have at least been somewhat competitive recently, obtaining 7 points from their last 4 games. It seems that the pressure and weight has been lifted form their shoulders following the confirmation of relegation and it would not surprise me if they finished the season with a victory. All year, the big problem for Grorud have been defensive issues. Their 68 goals conceded in 29 games is quite atrocious and they have the worst xGA in the league, averaging 2.04 per 90 mins, so they are legitimately bad.
Åsane will just be pleased that the season is ending. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games and are only four points clear of the relegation playoff spot. Thankfully, for their sake there is only one fixture now remaining. Åsane are another team who have a horrible defence this season, conceding a massive 64 times. Their attack force has saved them at times, and they’ve scored more goals (41) than any other team in the bottom four. Åsane have only won 2 out of 14 away games this year and rarely ever keep clean sheets. They have no reason to suddenly change their strategy here and might as well push for a win which would potentially see them move up to 12th place.
I see an open and high scoring final game to conclude the campaign. Grorud are probably playing with more confidence than at any other stage of the season and this is a fixture between two horrible defences. Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet at 1.40 and this should cover with ease. It would not surprise me if this game resulted in something crazy like a 2-2 draw or a 4-3 win for someone. Both sides will take a swing at scoring goals, so I like the idea of the over 2.5 covering with plenty to spare.
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