Everton v Arsenal
The Sean Dyche inspired Everton revival begins at Goodison Park at lunchtime on Saturday, and what an occasion for it. The Toffees welcome league leaders Arsenal to Merseyside, and most of us will have a keen eye on if a potential ‘new manager bounce’ could spring into action to cause one of the shocks of the season.
The motto for any Dyche team revolves around two things: work rate and physicality, as seen through videos of the former-Burnley manager putting his new side through their paces in one of his first training sessions in the form of a bleep test. No one encapsulates this more in this Everton side than Andre Onana.
The Belgian has been one of few revelations on the blue side of Liverpool this season. Despite the controversial exit of Antony Gordon to Newcastle, Onana took to Instagram to state he ‘won’t be leaving this ship’, and looks certain to be a key player under Dyche and continue his trend of being one of the most persistent foulers in the league. Averaging a whopping 1.81 fouls per game, with 2 fouls landing in five of his last seven games.
Arsenal have been flying this season, and it’s clear that teams have struggled to contain them, with Arteta’s side being the fourth most fouled side in the league this season (11.8 times P90). Onana’s robustness means he will be found all over the pitch, and will come up against this dangerous Arsenal attack that love to draw fouls in the likes of Bukayo Saka (1.36 times P90), Gabriel Martinelli (1.36 times P90) and Eddie Nketiah (2.69 times P90).
There’s no doubt Everton will be on the back foot in this game even with Dyche at the helm, and it wouldn’t be a colossal shock if the Belgian picked up a yellow card to add to his collection of five during this Premier League season. However, we’ll air on the side of caution and back Onana to pick up at least two fouls in the 12:30 game at Goodison.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
A trip to Old Trafford now, where Manchester United entertain Crystal Palace shortly after the sides met at Selhurst Park in mid January. That game ended 1-1, and Palace were more than good value for it. United severely struggled to contain the Eagles’ fast paced counter attack. One culprit in this struggling defence was left back Luke Shaw.
Shaw miraculously escaped a booking in that game, as he picked up three fouls during the deadlock in London, a theme that ran through this entire United defence in that game. The Palace front four drew a whopping seven fouls from this United side on that Wednesday night, and with a lack of cover in front of Shaw, this could spell a difficult game for the former-Southampton in what should be a routine game on paper.
United’s midfield is severely struggling in terms of depth. Van de Beek, Eriksen and McTominay faced prolonged spells on the sideline, sparking the deadline day signing of Marcel Sabitzer from Bayern Munich. Manager Erik ten Hag has confirmed Sabitzer will feature in the squad, however it is unlikely he will start given he only has one session under his belt. The Dutchman’s failure to rotate may come back to haunt him, with Fred and Casemiro likely to be the starting in a midfield pivot. The latter struggled as the game progressed, and arguably should have been sent off for a late challenge which saw him suspended for the crucial Arsenal clash.
Tired legs could be the only protection that Shaw gets in this game, and given he has amassed nine fouls across his past five games, it could spell danger with the likes of Olise and Zaha spearheading the flanks for Patrick Viera’s Palace, and the left back could very well pick up at least two fouls on Saturday afternoon.
Aston Villa v Leicester City
The Unai Emery era at Villa Park is slowly but surely starting to pick up pace. Any potential fears of relegation seem a thing of the past, with Villa sitting comfortably in 11th place in the Premier League table. Despite a recent spell on the sideline, midfielder Jacob Ramsey looks to be a key component to this new look Emery side, and has since played the majority of minutes since his return from injury.
Coming up against a struggling Leicester side, it may seem this would be a routine three points for the home side. While this may still be the case, Leicester have players who can cause harm to any defence in the league – and even more importantly – draw fouls.
Ramsey averages just over a foul per 90 mins played this season in the league (1.05), but these numbers may see a sharp increase with the aforementioned attacking threat of the Foxes. Ramsey often switches flanks in whatever midfield combo he finds himself in, and either of Leicester’s wingers in line to start rank comfortably to back this selection of Ramsey to pick up at least one foul. Harvey Barnes currently draws 1.24 fouls P90, while James Maddison on the opposing flank is drawing in a monumental 2.57 fouls P90.
Leicester have to go for broke here, and anything but a point will mount even more pressure on Brendan Rodgers. Ramsey is currently averaging 7.6 defensive duels per game, and despite Leicester’s position in the table, one of these duels could result in a booking with the attacking threat of the aforementioned talented forward talent Leicester boast.
Brentford v Southampton
Odds of 1.40 for a single foul just seem too enticing to turn down for a player who has notched up five fouls in their last three games, but more importantly, someone who averages over a foul per game in the league this season (1.12). I suppose that’s what happens when you’re part of a defence that is drawing closer and closer to Championship football as each week passes.
Mohammed Salisu has been an ever present in a Southampton team that rightfully sit at the foot of the Premier League table, and despite spirited displays in previous seasons, Salisu has not been able to help the Saints in their bid for survival so far. Already notching up four yellows this season, Salisu and co could find themselves in trouble when they face West London’s answer to ‘Moneyball’ in Thomas Frank’s Brentford on Saturday afternoon. Brentford have been yet again sensational this season, and to make matters worse for Salisu, he’s set to mark Brentford talisman Ivan Toney.
Even pushing the 13 goals in 18 league games aside, Toney has been a colossal handful for defenders this season. The England international is fouled 2.18 times P90 by Premier League defenders this season, and in truth, it wouldn’t be a shock if he ran amuck at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Things are looking bleak for Nathan Jones’ side, and it wont get any easier Saturday. Salisu is likely to struggle, and for me, odds of 1.40 seem too good to pass for the Ghanian to make a foul.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
It’s back to Old Trafford to round up the last selection for these foul best bets, and it’s down the right hand side of United where the game could be won or lost on Saturday. The good news for Aaron Wan-Bissaka is that he has revitalised his United career, and seems like he can offer genuine competition to Diogo Dalot at right back. The bad news is that he comes up against his ex-teammate and one of the most fouled players in the league in Wilfried Zaha.
Wan-Bissaka enjoyed a fantastic return to Selhurst Park last month, with many highlighting him as United’s best player on the pitch. Even still, he managed to pick up a foul in that game, and very nearly committed a second in the dying seconds of the game, but timed his challenge on Zaha to perfection when the Ivorian was clean through on goal. Many have highlighted Wan-Bissaka’s lack of defensive positional awareness as a key hole in his game, highlighted when he cynically fouled Zaha in the last game between these two to break down a counter attack.
Zaha ranks amongst one of the highest in Europe’s top leagues for fouls drawn per 90 (3.08), a trend that has followed him throughout his career. The former-United winger could look to exploit a United team that has struggled to rotate given a lack in depth, and this is reflected in Wan-Bissaka’s recent fouls trend. Before the aforementioned clash at Selhurst Park, Wan-Bissaka had only committed one foul across seven games. The absence of Dalot due to injury has meant he is now one of the first names on the team sheet, and the heavy congestion of fixtures have seen him commit a foul in four of his last five games (the only exception the comfortable 3-0 in the League Cup over Nottingham Forest).
United may very come out with all three points in this one, but Wan-Bissaka’s legs tiring and lack of defensive awareness, combined with the impending battle with ex-teammate Wilfried Zaha, I think a Wan-Bissaka foul could occur at Old Trafford when these two sides clash.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer
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