The Champions League gets underway early this season, and last-season’s semi-finalists Manchester City begin with a trip to Andalusia to face Sevilla at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, a game that has some excellent value for a Bet Builder. Group G also features Borussia Dortmund and FC Copenhagen, with Dortmund and Sevilla likely to be fighting it out for second-place behind the Premier League champions.
The Sevilla squad features a host of ex-Premier League stars, including former City midfielders Jesus Navas and Fernando who were part of the squad that reached the first Champions League semi-final in City’s history back in 2015/16, and both of whom are now featuring in the Sevilla backline, with Navas at right-back and Fernando central.
Visitors City may not be purring just yet, but star man Erling Haaland has already broken records in the Premier League with his 10 goals in 6 games, a run which included back-to-back hattricks at home to Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest. Despite the exceptional contribution of the Norwegian, City have dropped four points already in draws with Newcastle and Aston Villa.
Sevilla meanwhile have had a dreadful start to the season after finishing fourth in La Liga. After looking for most of the season to be the only real challengers to eventual champions Real Madrid they dropped off the pace badly towards the tail end of the season and this limp over the line has continued into the start of this season. It was an open secret that the club hoped to replace manager Lopetegui over the summer, but after failing to do so he remains in charge and the tense atmosphere this has created cannot be helping the Rojiblancos..
Sevilla v Manchester City Bet Builder Tips
Both Teams to Score – No
Sevilla’s poor start has seen them score just three goals in four games in La Liga, and this cannot be put down to a tough run of fixtures, with their three goals coming in games against Elche, Almeria and Real Valladolid. Following on from these three winless games they hosted Barcelona at the weekend, where they were easily dismantled 3-0.
From four games in which you would expect a squad like Sevilla’s to have won three, they have produced just 4.9xG and scored only three times, with the vast majority of this xG coming in one game against Valladolid where they piled up 2.02xG and found the net only once. Faced with one of the best defences in the world, it seems unlikely a dispirited Sevilla side with their coach on the brink will be able to carve a way through and find the back of the net.
Though City have conceded in three of their six Premier League games so far this season, all three games have also seen great performances from Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle respectively, and right now Sevilla just do not seem capable of turning in that level of performance. As long as City don’t create problems for themselves, a clean sheet seems more likely than not.
Over 2.5 Goals
Man City have started the season in imperious goalscoring form, with 20 goals scored in 6 Premier League games, and over 2.5 goals in four of six games so far this season, including three six-goal games against Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest. They have won 4-0 and 6-0 against Bournemouth and Forest and are more than capable of scoring three times against a Sevilla side in a real mess.
Even if Haaland does not start this game, his backup Julian Alvarez has looked very exciting in his sub appearances and really announced himself at City with a brace and a fantastic performance in his first start against Forest last week. They have threats all over the pitch and will want to start their campaign with a real statement win if they can, and that is why I am backing over 2.5 goals even though I don’t expect Sevilla to score.
Last season’s group stage saw City scoring 18 goals in 6 games, averaging exactly 3 goals per game, impressive in a group which also contained Paris Saint-Germain and RB Leipzig. This year’s group is much easier, and with two incredibly natural finishers now in the squad, complementing the array of creative midfield talent already at the club, City should pile on even more goals this year.
Erling Haaland to Score Anytime
City’s new number 9 has had an exceptional start to the season, and to be frank anyone who expected otherwise really hasn’t been paying attention. Haaland’s numbers have been ridiculous for years now, whether at Molde, RB Salzburg or Dortmund, and he has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water.
The Champions League is the goal for the Norwegian however, he will freely admit to it being his favourite competition and he has already broken a number of goalscoring records in continental competition, including being the youngest to reach 20 goals in the Champions League whilst simultaneously doing it in less games than anyone else, his staggering record of 14 games being 10 games fewer than previous record holder Harry Kane.
Haaland has taken 4.68 shots per game in the league this season, but he is far from wasteful, with 2.62 shots on target per 90 to go with it, more than 1.5 more shots on target than any other City player with comparable minutes this season.
I expect him to start, and with him drawing a blank only once this season so far, a start for Haaland usually results in a goal.
Juan Jordan to be Shown a Card
So far this season Sevilla have accumulated 16 yellow cards in four games, including a ridiculous 8 in a single game away at Almeria, whilst City’s opponents have had 2 yellow cards per game on average. Whilst only two of those cards have gone to midfielders so far, they have made a combined 16 fouls already this season, so more bookings are to be expected.
Throughout this season, opposition right-backs and right-sided players in general have fouled on 10 occasions, whilst left-sided players have made only 3 fouls. This is down to the presence of either Phil Foden or Jack Grealish down the City left, both explosive players with quick feet and a tendency to receive the ball on the half-turn, inviting defenders to swipe a leg at them as they sprint away with the ball. The build-up play tends to be slower and more patient on the City right, usually occupied by the less explosive Mahrez or Bernardo Silva; and faster on the left flank, which is what creates this imbalance in foul numbers.
Jordan has made 2.78 fouls per 90 minutes so far this season, and as the right-sided midfielder in a three, he is likely to face off against City’s left wingers and Joao Cancelo throughout the game, as City’s overloads drag the side across to the touchline. Even at odds-on to be booked he seems good value, facing off against some of City’s best on-the-ball players and his high foul numbers makes a card seem highly likely for the 28-year-old Spaniard.
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Sevilla v Man City Predicted Line-ups:
Sevilla predicted XI (4-3-3) : Bounou; Navas, Nianzou, Fernando, Acuna; Jordan, Rakitic, Delaney; Lamela, En-Nesyri, Gomez
Manchester City predicted XI (4-3-3) : Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake, Cancelo; De Bruyne, Rodri, Gundogan; Mahrez, Haaland, Grealish
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Sevilla v Man City in the UEFA Nations League
📅 When is Sevilla v Man City? / Tuesday, 6th September 2022, 20:00
🏟 Where is Sevilla v Man City? / Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (Seville)
📺 What TV channel is Sevilla v Man City? / BT Sports 2
🟨 …And who is the referee for Sevilla v Man City? / Davide Massa 🇮🇹