I really expected this to be a shorter price, and it may well be shorter come kick off, but the majority of the form lines and research points towards Middlesbrough here.

Boro have this reputation, probably built up over the Carrick era, that they tend to trip up or fail to convince in situations like this - odds on prices in away games to lower table teams. However, I am happy to ignore that theory in lieu of more recent guidance and current form, especially given that they are under new management.

Sheffield Wednesday's travails need no further explanation here, except to say that a massive protest has been called for by the home fans for this match, which could result in a lower attendance and a strange atmosphere. Probably not ideal when the team need all the home advantage that they can get.

Wednesday have drawn one and lost four of their Championship home games this season and scored only once whilst conceding 14. They were blown away in 30 minutes by Bristol City and smashed by Coventry as well, and whilst both of those sides are top five for attacking metrics and Boro are way off that, there is still a lot of attacking talent in that Middlesbrough team to take advantage of an inexperienced and cobbled together defence.

Former Boro keeper Joe Lumley has now been confirmed as a Wednesday loanee to cover for Ethan Horvath's suspension, but obviously, this isn't ideal either.

Boro have delivered good results away from home this season, a 3-0 win at Millwall the pick of the bunch, and they average a positive xG difference away from home as well.

Thomas Kirk is the referee for this encounter. He has officiated eight matches so far this season and is averaging 4.25 yellow cards per match, which is quite a high average. His Championship record so far this season has seen him beat this chosen line for away teams in all five of his delegated matches. This will be his 17th Championship appointment in his career, and he has 4.31 yellow cards given per match.

All of this data put together makes me think that cards could be on the menu. Matches at Hillsborough this season have seen the away side average 1.5 cards per game, with three of the five visitors breaching this line.

Middlesbrough are a high yellow card-receiving team; they are averaging 2.5 yellow cards per match this season in the Championship. This rises to 3.6 cards per game when only considering their away matches so far. They have breached this line in four of five Championship away matches, including getting six bookings at Southampton and five at Millwall.

The Middlesbrough centre-back is a more than fair price for a single foul here.

Jones has committed at least one foul in his last four starts, and that has lifted his average to exactly one foul per 90 minutes over the course of the season as a whole.

There is also positive form for this bet to be found when looking at the record of Sheffield Wednesday's forwards and the regularity with which they are fouled.

George Brown has been fouled in each of his last four appearances and has a 1.92 fouls drawn per 90 average this season. Jamal Lowe has started each of the last three games as a centre-forward and been fouled in all three; he has an average fouled rate of 1.05 per 90. Brown has the highest fouled rate in the Sheffield Wednesday squad.

The young Scottish international was selected in this same market against Ipswich on Friday night, and despite playing a more withdrawn role, he was fouled twice on the night for a comfortable win. Indeed, backing him to be fouled twice here would be a good recommendation as a single, but I am happy to include a single foul against Conway in a multi.

Those two fouls against Conway on Friday took his average fouls drawn figure for the season to 1.18 per 90. He has drawn at least one foul in each of his last four starts and in six of his last seven. Indeed, five of his last seven starts have seen Conway fouled at least twice.

It is difficult to know exactly where Conway will start and what his role in the team will be, outside of simply scoring goals, but he has shown himself to be versatile enough to play as the #9, #10, or #11 in Edwards’ setup, and he is fouled often enough in all positions for this to be a good bet regardless.

It does make it difficult to match him up against a specific Sheffield Wednesday defender, but Gabriel Otegbayo averages 1.62 fouls per 90, Max Lowe averages 1.19 fouls per 90, and Liam Palmer, when not in goal, averages 0,58 fouls per 90.