Trippier has been outstanding since his return to English football 12 months ago, and his leadership has been a key part of Newcastle’s rise from perennial relegation candidates to a genuine top-4 side. Trippier is crucial for Newcastle’s build-up and his passing range is being exploited more and more by Eddie Howe as the season goes on.

Whilst Trippier rarely hit this line before the World Cup break, he has now hit 70 or more passes in 7 of his last 9 Premier League ties for Newcastle, and the bookies are yet to catch up to his new, more involved role. Newcastle average over 50% possession, while Southampton have the fourth-lowest percentage of possession in the league, with 44.4%.

Newcastle should dominate the ball, and Trippier will be needed to break down what is sure to be a stubborn Southampton defence. It may not sail in exactly, but it seems more likely than not to come in, and sitting at odds of just under 2.88 is ridiculously high considering his recent form.

Callum Wilson may not have been amongst the goals recently, but that is not for lack of trying. In his last 5 starts the English striker has piled on a ridiculous 17 shots, resulting in 6 shots on target, for an average of 1.20 per game.

Throughout the season, Newcastle’s number 9 has failed to have a shot only once all season when starting the game, and has had at least one shot on target in 11 of his 15 starts for the Magpies.

Newcastle are likely to dominate as detailed above, and the games in which Wilson has failed to get a shot on target have all come in games where his side have had some of their lowest possession numbers. This is unlikely to be the case here and Wilson should have plenty of opportunities.

In 20 Premier League games this season, Newcastle have had more corners than the opposition on 13 occasions, and have only had less than their opponents 3 times. Southampton meanwhile have had the fewest corners in 10 of their 20 games, and their general lack of height up front against a very aerially dominant Newcastle defence should discourage crosses and therefore lead to less corners.

The only real worry for this selection is that the game may remain close and see Southampton go looking for an equaliser whilst Newcastle sit back and protect a 1-goal lead. However, with the very real risk of conceding to Newcastle’s dangerous forwards, and a second leg to come, I doubt Southampton would open themselves up and pressure Newcastle to the extent that it will cause a dramatic swing in the number of corners.

In his 12 starts so far this season, Diallo has committed fouls in 9, and has committed more than one foul in 8 of those 9 games. His average for the season is 2.03 fouls per 90 minutes played, the highest of any player at Southampton who has played over 500 minutes this season.

Diallo has a tough matchup, with his defensive midfield spot ensuring he will be surrounded by Guimaraes and Willock, with Almiron and Joelinton operating in the spaces behind him but in front of the Southampton back 4. All of the players mentioned (bar Joe Willock) feature in the top 5 for drawing fouls in this Newcastle side.

The Frenchman makes 2.30 tackle attempts per 90, winning only 1.23 of these, which is exactly what you want to see in a foul bet – not afraid to get stuck in and willing to go for it even when he is unlikely to win the ball. A single mistimed tackle will see this selection ticked off.

Even if he is perfect with his tackles, Diallo will have to be on top form to shut down the invention Newcastle’s attacking talent can provide. With fast breaks and a willingness to mix it up and go long when the defence is stretched being a feature of their play, he may well be forced into a tactical foul to stop a dangerous attack in its tracks.

For those looking to boost their odds, a Diallo card is not a bad option at 3.40, but I will personally be playing it a little safer and plumping for a solitary foul.