Spain v Scotland

The Scottish football team may not have won in Spain since June 1963, but fresh off the back of a victory against the 2008 and 2012 European Champions, earlier in the campaign, the hopes will be high that, 60 years on, the Scottish fans can drink celebratory cava in the bars of Seville. Indeed, Steve Clarke has marshalled his troops to an extraordinary beginning to their qualification campaign. The hotels of Germany are already preparing ahead of the visit of thousands of Scottish fans next summer.

Only a severe twist of agonising fate could stop Scotland from earning qualification for Euro 2024, and, in all likelihood, Thursday night opponents Spain should be the country joining them in qualification from Group A. Both teams will approach this match with confidence. Spain are two points clear of Norway in third, with a game in hand. The Spaniards have won all of the matches aside from the one at Hampden Park in March, and have done so by an average winning margin of five goals. Undoubtedly, Spain are favourites to win this qualifier. However, there should be no fear for Scotland, and they have very little to lose in Seville. This cocktail means that there should be some fun opportunities to be had for bettors in various markets.

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Spain v Scotland Cheat Sheet

The Spain v Scotland Cheat Sheet is an amazing tool for crafting bet builders crammed with value. It is an excellent resource to help bettors with their betting angles ahead of the match. 

We will break down the key aspects of the sheet in this article and provide some detail to help clarify the numbers.

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Without further ado, let’s get stuck into the breakdown.

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A change of style creating more chances and shots for La Roja

Luis de la Fuente’s Spanish side is one that appears to have something of a ruthless edge, at least against teams that aren’t Scottish. Gone are the days of Spain playing 4-6-0 formations and holding the ball forever as a way of controlling the game. de la Fuente will set his side up in a 4-3-3 shape with Alvaro Morata as an out-and-out centre forward. The Atletico Madrid striker has been much maligned in his career, especially in the UK, possibly as a result of his Chelsea spell, but he is at the peak of his powers at the moment with three braces for his club and a hat-trick for Spain already this season.

His ability to hold that central space and work the central defenders allows his wide forwards, full backs, and central midfield 8s to roam and play their football around him.

Spain’s victories of 3-0, 6-0 and 7-1 in the group so far show how devastating La Roja can be with this shape and personnel when they get it right. Watch the shot volume and attacking metrics in the betting markets for the Spanish.

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Improved attacking output for the Tartan Army

For years we have been used to Scottish international football being played a certain way, defence first, relatively dour, and negative. This is not necessarily a criticism of the managers, but the quality of the players, and the collective national team perhaps wasn’t there to play any other way. Steve Clarke has been in the job for four years now, and he has made an indelible imprint on the side to the point now that when Scotland take to the pitch under his stewardship, the Tartan Army in the stands are able to expect a certain style. Full-bodied, whole-hearted and with genuine threat.

The stats in the Cheat Sheet show that Scotland have produced almost double the number of shots on target as their opponents in this campaign, and the group is not as easy as they are making it look.

Despite the difficulty of this match, and the ability of Spain to restrict their opponents, it might be worth looking at shots on target for Scotland. They will play on the break and from set pieces, so the quality of chances may be slightly higher, giving shots on target a greater edge than just shots.

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🎯Spain offensive stats: Sheer volume of attacking options

Spain are hitting the heights in attack, and what they do have is a variety of threats on the pitch. This results in shots being able to come in from various sources and their offensive data to be really strong. We can see in the sheet that their number of shots on target is well above average at 8.5. Scotland are a stronger defensive unit than probably any other team in the group though, so that should be expected to be a bit lower in this encounter.

From an offensive perspective, it is perhaps worth focusing a little on Nico Williams. Luis de la Fuente has persisted with Williams as a wide forward and he is a big point of difference in the Spanish outfit as the way he plays is different to the rest of the squad. He is able to carry the ball with directness and speed, which is the reason why he is the man who is fouled the most often for Spain. This is something to bear in mind when considering card and foul angles for Scotland. It could also be a good in-play angle when it is clear who is tasked with marking him.

Alvaro Morata may well be the main man for club and country at the moment, but he is far from the only player to watch out for in the shot markets. Ferran Torres has been a bit part player in the campaign so far, with most of his impact coming off the bench, but the former Man City forward has indeed had an impact, his shot metrics being huge. Whilst we wouldn’t expect them to convert to that extent, it is still clear that Torres is a shot threat for Scotland. This also applies in a more consistent way for the midfielders. Mikel Merino has been a consistent player in La Liga for years now since his Newcastle spell. He is one of the 8s in the midfield with a licence to get forward. This often gives him more space to play and get shots off, averaging over three shots a match. Rodri is almost certain to play the 90 minutes in this match given the rest he got for himself given a three-match suspension in the Premier League and he averages almost two shots a match for La Roja, with over one on target as well.

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🎯 Scotland offensive stats: Positive ratio may be hard to maintain

Scotland come into this match full of confidence and with some consistency in their attacking unit. They have not just scraped their wins in this group. The data in the sheet backs up the fact that Clarke’s side have deserved their points haul, and they are worth having some confidence in for this match too.

With Lyndon Dykes and Che Adams they are able to rotate their main centre forward to maintain a constant fresh presence in central areas, and both John McGinn and Scott McTominay are full of confidence, especially in a Scotland shirt at the moment. They have scored eight of Scotland’s goals in this campaign and are having an impact in the Premier League as well, they will play with no fear.

Set pieces will obviously be key, and with McGinn, Callum McGregor and Andy Robertson’s delivery and Ryan Porteous, Jack Hendry, Scott McTominay, and Dykes to aim for, there is a big chance for the Scots from dead balls. Look for the possibility of a headed goal or goal from a set piece in the markets. The way that Scotland are almost certain to set up is with a big central striker who is capable of physically challenging the Spanish central defenders and potentially holding the ball up. However, they are not there to be the biggest goal threat.

The supporting attacking midfielders, John McGinn and Scott McTominay, will be the players Steve Clarke will look to in providing the threat to keep Spain honest.

McTominay in particular has been prolific in both goals and shots in this campaign. The Man United midfielder, fresh off a terrific brace for his club that won the game vs Brentford, averages over three shots per 90 minutes for Scotland this campaign and has a faintly ridiculous six goals in five qualifiers. McTominay’s goal threat comes in various guises, but Spain will have to be especially aware of his threat from arriving in the box for crosses and set pieces, albeit, there will be plenty of threat from set pieces with the Scottish central defenders as well, who may also be value for a shot in this way.

John McGinn may be value for shots from outside the box. The Aston Villa midfielder has a great left foot and isn’t averse to taking aim from distance, and is often successful in doing so. He is the second-highest shooter for Scotland at 2.71 shots per match.

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🛑 Spain defensive stats: In-game domination means few chances against

Rodri is an obvious candidate for a yellow card and he leads the tackle count for the Spanish, but the fouls are more concentrated in the free midfielders on either side of Rodri. Gavi and Mikel Merino are given licence to hunt the ball and in doing so can be the ones who are exerting that pressure and sometimes giving fouls away, and with the referee in charge of the game having a season way above his career average in yellow card count, they might be worth a try at a decent price.

Spain are only allowing two shots on target against them on average at the moment, so they are a fairly solid team despite not quite being as suffocating as Spanish teams of old. Either way, we cannot expect Scotland to create much from open play if that form holds.

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🛑 Scotland Defensive Stats: Look to the yellow card markets

Conversely to Spain, Scotland have been a little more frequent in their visits to the referee’s notebook. This isn’t to extreme levels by any means, Scotland are not a particularly dirty team but Clarke does want his players to play with intensity and be physical with their opponents as he perceives, correctly, that this is a good way to gain parity or even an advantage over their opponents.

They are averaging 2.4 yellows per match, more than their opponents when they play. They are also committing more fouls, 13 to 11.4, and with the Spanish having an even lower total than that, it is the Scots we should look to in the fouls and yellow card markets.

John McGinn tops Scotland’s foul rankings, and is also fouled more often than any other Scottish player, so battles seem to coalesce around the Aston Villa man. Billy Gilmour is another great option as well, he leads the tackle count and one would imagine he will be tasked with keeping Merino and Gavi under wraps in midfield.

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