Whilst Braga fans are dreaming of a historic end to the season, most Sporting fans would be happy to push the fast-forward button and accelerate towards next summer. Having conceded 20 goals in their title-winning 2020/21 season and 23 the following year – reaching 85 points on both occasions – the Lions have already let in 19 goals after 17 matches and are on pace for a 64-point campaign. They won their first two Champions League matches only to miss out on qualification on the final day and suffer relegation to the Europa League, and as opposed to Braga, who will be playing Benfica in the Taça de Portugal quarterfinals, they fell to lower-tier Varzim in the earlier stages of the competition.

Sporting’s best chance of silverware has come and gone, with Rúben Amorim’s side falling to a 2-0 defeat to Porto on Saturday in the Taça da Liga Final. It remains to be seen whether or not star right back Pedro Porro will remain in Lisbon or head to Tottenham Hotspur this window, but one thing is for sure – this has been a season to forget for Sporting thus far. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in 2023, having drawn 2-2 to Benfica and fallen to a 1-0 defeat to bottom dwellers Marítimo, and their attack has dried up as well with just 33 goals scored, less than Porto (41), Braga (39) or Benfica (45).

Sporting may be favorites on paper, but I find it hard to see them beating Braga on Wednesday. 2022 would see Braga beat Benfica (twice) and hand them their first defeat of the 2022/23 campaign in all competitions, as well as end Porto’s 58-match unbeaten streak and beat Sporting. They have firmly established themselves as one of the best teams in the nation and have won their last five league matches, and I’m backing them to come away with at least a point in Lisbon.

Sporting have played Braga on five different occasions since the start of the 2021/22 season, with their latest matchup seeing them beat Braga 5-0 in the Taça da Liga quarterfinals on December 19. Each of their last five fixtures have seen over 2.5 goals scored, and each of Braga’s last four fixtures against the Big Three (Benfica, Porto and Sporting) have seen over 2.5 goals scored, and I’m backing this one to be similar.

Sporting’s leaky defense going up against a dazzling attack of Ricardo Horta, Abel Ruíz, Vitinha and more could be a recipe for disaster at the Estádio José Alvalade. Since the start of 2019, Sporting have been held scoreless against Braga just once – a 1-0 defeat on February 2, 2020 – and I would not be surprised to see them get on the score sheet either. Expect a high-scoring and entertaining affair in Lisbon.

It has been quite the meteoric rise for Pedro ‘Pote’ Gonçalves. Having joined Braga’s academy at the age of 13, Pote departed for Valencia after five years, where he impressed at the academy level before moving to Wolves in 2017. He would make just one competitive appearance before returning to Portugal in 2019, playing a key role in Famalicão’s stellar return to the Primeira before departing to Sporting after one year at Fama.

Pote scored 23 goals in 2020/21 to lead Sporting to their first title in 19 years, becoming the first Portuguese player to win the league’s Golden Boot award since Domingos Paciência in 1996. He opened 2021 by breaking the deadlock in a 2-0 home win against Braga, a sign of things to come. Pote has scored one goal in each of his last five fixtures against Braga, and with 9 league goals, he sits four points clear as Sporting’s top scorer for this season. I’m backing this one to be a high-scoring affair, and I’m backing Pote to continue his stellar run of goalscoring form against his former side.