Spurs v AC Milan Cheat Sheet
Spurs v AC Milan
Wednesday night sees the return leg of Tottenham’s round of 16 Champions League game as AC Milan travel to face London. The home side face an uphill battle having been beaten 1-0 at the San Siro and they are on a poor run of form – losing four of their last six, including their last two to Wolves and Sheffield United in the FA Cup. The visitors were on a poor run of form before Spurs arrived to the San Siro but they backed up their first leg victory with back to back wins to nil at Monza and at home to Atalanta before losing 2-1 to Fiorentina on the weekend in a disappointing performance.
Spurs sit in fourth in the league this season but are only just holding on, with Liverpool, Newcastle and Brighton all below them with games in hand. A growing contingent of the Spurs fan base want boss Antonio Conte to be sacked and a loss here would not help. However, he has won five of his last six managerial games against Milan and he will be looking to stop them from reaching their first Champions League quarterfinal in 11 years.
However, back to back 1-0 losses to Wolves and Sheffield United will not have helped his cause and they will need to improve drastically if they are to progress. They were fortunate that the first leg ended 1-0 as they were beaten 2.09 to 0.50 on expected goals and had no big chances in comparison to Milan’s 4. They do have plenty of absentees here though with Ryan Sessegnon, Hugo Lloris, Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur all still out whilst Eric Dier is suspended following his first-leg yellow. This should mean that Clement Lenglet, Cristian Romero and Ben Davies will play in front of Fraser Forster. Wing back Pedro Porro could make his first European start for the club having impressed in the defeat to Wolves.
AC Milan started the season strongly and looked very likely to finish in the top two of Serie A behind Napoli. However, since the start of the new year, they have looked like a different team – picking up just 14 points in their ten league games in that time, losing at home to ten-man Torino in the Coppa Italia and suffering a humiliating 3-0 defeat to bitter rivals Inter Milan in the Super Cup final. They have been eliminated at this round in five of their last six appearances in the competition and are looking for revenge having been eliminated by Spurs in 2011/12. They are set up in a good position to do so and will be expected to progress from here. They will also be pleased with the number of players available to them. Mike Maignan has fully recovered and should come back in in goal and Rafael Leao and Rade Krunic, who were suspended on the weekend, will be available here.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is averaging 1.05 shots per game in the Premier League this season and has scored four goals – his best return in a Spurs shirt already. At home, his numbers are particularly impressive. He has started 12 games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and has had 12 shots, managing at least one in nine of those games. The games that he did not have a shot were Aston Villa, Leeds and Southampton, but he had five shots against Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, including one in each game, suggesting that he likes to go for goal more against better teams in more important games. He had one at home against both Sporting Lisbon and Marseille in the Champions League group stage this season but missed the away fixture at the San Siro due to suspension. The home side will be chasing the game and this should see them have plenty of shots.
Spurs have averaged 5.57 corners per match this season in the Champions League, conceding 5.14. In six of their seven games they have seen at least four corners and in two of them they have had at least eight corners. They have conceded just 13 in their three matches at home at an average of 4.33 per game and conceded more than four in just one of those games. They also saw at least four in every match here in the early stages of the competition. In the Premier League, at home they average 6.31 corners per game whilst only conceding 3.69.
Away from home, Milan average just 3.92 corners per game in the Serie A this season, whilst giving away 5.77 per match. They have had five or more corners in just 31% of their games away from the San Siro whilst conceding at least six in 54% of them. The first leg saw Spurs get a massive eight corners whilst Milan managed just three and given that Spurs have to chase this game to have any hope of proceeding, they should manage more here.
Cristian Romero has committed at least one foul in every one of his starts for club and country going back to the start of October. In the first leg he was booked for his only foul – a late sliding challenge at the start of the second half. Across his ten matches in 2023, he has conceded 20 fouls at an average rate of exactly two per game and this selection has landed in six of those games. He has also been booked nine times in 13 games since the quarterfinals of the World Cup. He has started 14 matches for Spurs since October 8th, committing at least two offences in nine of them.
Fikayo Tomori has committed the most fouls of any AC Milan player in the Champions League so far this season (seven) despite having missed two matches (including the first leg) and being sent off within 20 minutes of another – an average of 1.67 fouls per 90. He has committed at least one foul in 18 of his 26 starts and at least one in 11 of his last 14 games where he has played more than 25 minutes, including in each of his three games since his return from the injury that ruled him out of the first leg. He will have his hands full with Spurs’ attack and being a former Chelsea player, playing against the North London side will mean that little bit more – especially in a Champions League knockout match at the Blues’ rivals’ stadium.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
Haven’t got a Paddy Power account? You’re in luck…
Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the 5/1 Spurs v AC Milan Bet Builder. Here are the two possible outcomes:
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *