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Stoke v Leeds
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Kick Off: Thursday 26th December at 20:00
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Competition: EFL Championship
The pressure is building on Narcis Pelach as Stoke slip closer to the Championship relegation zone, off the back of some concerning defensive displays since the Spaniard took over from Steven Schumacher. Meanwhile, Leeds continue to march on towards another second-tier promotion, but will also have a measure of concern over their away results, so this is a key match for Daniel Farke’s team as well.
⭐ Stoke v Leeds Best Bets
It is difficult to look away from Leeds in this match. The concerns surrounding Stoke and their defensive structure are going to be tested by 1 of the best attacking outfits in the league.
The usual tactic when a team hosts Leeds is for them to dig in, remain solid in their structure, usually very deep, and hit Leeds on the counter-attack. It feels like a big doubt for Stoke to be successful in this tactic, given their lack of success in defensive structure so far this season. The decision to be made is how to support Leeds in this match, the straight match win is on the short side at 1.5, albeit this is a fair price for those who are happy to back odds-on shots.
Instead, a reach into the Correct Score combinations market could provide the answer. Stoke failed to score against Preston and Burnley at home recently, and, against another team who deny their opposition many chances, the Leeds to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 market, at 2.88 looks like a good bet.
👕 Stoke v Leeds Predicted XI
🔍 Stoke v Leeds Players to Watch
Both Players to Watch tips are at short odds for this fixture, they provide strong value for bet building and can be doubled up at odds of 1.45.
🔴 Thomas Cannon
The Everton youth product is on loan from Leicester and has been made Stoke’s main man in the #9 position this season. He has a very high shot average at 2.87 per 90, and, with Million Manhoef out injured for a number of weeks, there will be even more weight on Cannon to keep firing. 4 times this season Cannon has taken 5 shots or more.
He is also a regular for fouls, averaging 1.2 fouls committed per 90, and drawing almost exactly 1 foul per 90 as well.
⚪️ Ao Tanaka
The Japan international has been earning rave reviews since being recruited to play in the centre of midfield.
In terms of betting markets to find Tanaka in, he is best played in the fouls committed market. Tanaka has averaged 1.21 fouls per 90, but it is his consistency of fouls that makes him a good bet in the market. He has committed at least 1 foul in each of his last 12 Championship matches, and 14 in 15 starts overall.
📂 Stoke v Leeds Cheat Sheet
Andy’s Bet Club is the best place for Football Betting Predictions. We’ve got the Boxing Day EFL slate covered with EFL Tips and an EFL Accumulator.
We’ve got plenty more in store for Thursday’s EFL slate, including Derby v West Brom Betting Preview and Derby v West Brom Bet Builder Predictions.
💻 Stoke v Leeds Form and Tactics
Stoke’s results have been poor of late, but, in truth, their performances have shown concern for even longer than their current run of 8 matches without a win. They have lost 4 of their last 5.
The performance data metrics are dire for Stoke. They sit 2nd-bottom of the league for xG against (xGA) allowing 39 xG, almost 2 xG against per match, and whilst they are actually inside the top half for xG for (xGF) this doesn’t do enough to negate the chances conceded.
Narcis Pelach is trying to implement what most people would consider a modern style of play, a 3-4-2-1 with high pressing, and a zonal defensive system. He has conceded that this takes a while to come to fruition, but given current form, there either needs to be a change of tact or the methods need to be implemented better by the players.
Leeds continue to mix impenetrability at home with inconsistent results away. They are unbeaten in 4 matches but had to rely on a last-minute equaliser at Preston to avoid another defeat on the road. Leeds have set the standard in the league, sitting top of the xGF and xGA standings so far this season.
Daniel Farke doesn’t tend to deviate from a 4-2-3-1 formation, and he has great options in almost every position in that shape. Ethan Ampadu has recently returned from injury and is playing in central defence to allow the Ao Tanaka and Joe Rothwell midfield partnership to continue.
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🏁 Stoke v Leeds Ref Watch
- Referee: Stephen Martin
- Stephen Martin has only refereed 33 Championship matches, 10 of which have come this season, so is quite inexperienced as a match official.
- This season he averages 23.8 fouls given per Championship match, which is quite high in comparison to other refs.
- He is averaging 4.3 yellow cards per fixture in the Championship in his career so far, which moves down to 3.9 when just taking this season into account.
- Martin hasn’t yet given a red card this season but has given 4 in his EFL career so far.
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
Our guide on How To Use A Cheat Sheet is the perfect way to get involved with our Bet Builder Stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on the Championship.
We recommend the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, Top Bet Builder Sites, Weekly Free Bet Clubs, and the best Boxing Day Free Bets but we also like specific offers like the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and Sky Bet Sign Up Offer.
Our tips on Shots on Target, Cards and Fouls are worth bookmarking for your festive period punting.
Expert guides, such as this one, on xG in Football, are also available to help you up your punting game.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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